It is playoff time now but don’t let that stop you from making fat stacks of DFS infused dough. In fact, with fewer players to choose from, the infinite number of combinations and possibilities is radically reduced to only astronomical proportions. J Sure there are a lot of possible RBs and WRs still out there but realistically there are very few that are legitimate threats to produce week-to-week. If you had the bankroll and the chutzpah, you could quite possible cover a bunch of the possible combinations. For the rest of us, you will have to rely on me to help guide you to the promised land, and steer you clear of the pitfalls.
Quarterback, Tight End, and Defense are all very thin in terms of possible combinations. There are six realistic QB-plays, six TEs, and five defenses. If you were to cover just all of those combinations you’d be faced with 150 lineups before breaking down RBs and WRs. That is still too many. Just like on @BlitzedPodcast, I’m going to give you my top Pay-to-Play option(s) at each position. The player(s) you need to Fade-Away and of course the top Value Play(s) of the week. If you can get your choices down to two at each of these three spots, that leaves only eight different combinations to form the backbone of your lineup.
It’s time to lock and load those lineups,
Prices indicated: Black = Acceptable and Red = Not Worth It and Blue = Gotta Have It
Weekly strategy – You can pay big bucks for Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, or Aaron Rodgers and you probably should because there is a huge pile of nothing at RB. WR is probably going to be your biggest expenditure, and if you need to go cheap here nab Kirk Cousins or Brian Hoyer. As for me, I’m gonna be all-in on either Big Ben or Hoyer.
Pay To Play
NFL 10 Person Draft
Entry: $0 Players: 3/10 Prizes: $0.00
NFL 5 Person
Entry: $5 Players: 2/5 Prizes: $22.50
NFL 20 Person
Entry: $1 Players: 1/20 Prizes: $18.00
NFL 20 Person
Entry: $0 Players: 1/20 Prizes: $0.00
NFL 5 Person
Entry: $0 Players: 1/5 Prizes: $0.00
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers @ CIN ($7200 DK, $8400 FD, $8500 FS)
A lot was made about how Ben Roethlisberger had thrown only two road touchdowns going into Week 17. Most of us knew that when the cards were on the line, he would get it done. Of course, it also helped that DeAngelo Williams was lost early in Week 17 forcing Ben to lead the charge. Cincinnati has held Roethlisberger in check this year allowing only one passing TD over two games. What isn’t denoted there however is that in their first meeting Ben was rusty from coming off injury and in the second meeting DeAngelo accounted for a pair of scores. Neither of those things will be in place to deter Roethlisberger this time out.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ WAS ($6400 DK, $8100 FD, $7900 FS)
Aaron Rodgers has been a shell of himself this season, thanks mainly to the loss of Jordy Nelson. He threw for only one TD in four of his last six games and he topped 300 yards only three times all year and none since Week 10. Washington has been burned badly by opposing QBs recently but so have the other teams that Rodgers has stalled out against. I don’t really hate Aaron here; I just prefer Big Ben or Russell Wilson if I’m going to pay that much for my QB.
Brian Hoyer, Texans vs. KC ($5400 DK, $6900 FD, $6600 FS)
Across the board Brian Hoyer has a pretty good price tag and he makes a sneaky good play this week. The Chiefs can be beat through the air and they really haven’t faced anyone near as skilled as DeAndre Hopkins since Week 12. That week, Sammy Watkins destroyed them for 158-2. I’d argue that Hopkins is better than Watkins and that Hoyer is better than Tyrod Taylor. Hoyer combined with Ryan Mallett to throw for 334-2 in Week 1 against Houston. Both of those TDs went to Hopkins. Hoyer-Hopkins is a great hookup once again this week.
Weekly strategy – Injury question marks and rust shroud over DeAngelo Williams and Marshawn Lynch. Either of those two would be an effective play but not a great play based on their opponent. Adrian Peterson is a stud and probably deserves a start no matter what, especially since you have to spend your money somewhere. If D-Will does not play, Fitz Toussaint makes a nice bargain play. That said the only “starting RBs” under price are Alfred Morris and Jonathan Grimes. That is pretty disturbing. I’m hoping that Williams doesn’t go so I can roster Toussaint and Peterson. Otherwise I may pay up for Williams or Lynch and pair them with AP, but I hate to throw money at non-upside plays with a lot of money needed for WR.
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Adrian Peterson, Vikings vs. SEA ($7300 DK, $8400 FD, $8500 FS)
In their earlier meeting the score got so out of hand early that Adrian Peterson became a non-factor. Things went pear-shaped so fast because Minnesota was without their top three defensive players and two other defensive starters as well. A fully healthy defense (and sub-zero temperatures) will keep this game close and low scoring. That sets up perfectly for a heavy dose of AP carrying the rock.
Jeremy Hill, Bengals vs. PIT ($5000 DK, $6700 FD, $6900 FS)
Pittsburgh has been scary good against opposing RBs this year. Combine that with the fact that this game is likely to turn into a track meet and we will likely see more of the pass-catching back Gio Bernard than Jeremy Hill this week. I think Hill’s best bet is to score a short-TD, but the Steelers have only allowed four RB scores all season. If you need more reason to avoid him, Hill posted a line of 22-76 against Pittsburgh – that is combined between both starts.
Alfred Morris, Redskins vs. GB ($3700 DK, $5500 FD, $5700 FS)
Thanks in large part to injuries to Matt Jones and Chris Thompson, Alfred Morris has once again established himself as the primary back in Washington. He even broke the century mark in their last game of the season. Meanwhile, Green Bay has allowed RB touchdowns in five of the last seven weeks.
Weekly strategy – Here is where you will spend the majority of your budget and rightfully so. There are some decent bargains here so don’t be afraid to pull all three starters plus FLEX from here. I am going to spend the big money for Antonio Brown because 100% of the league will. Outside of that expect to devote 20K-25K for these four slots. If I’m feeling particularly froggy, I may even roster both DeAndre Hopkins and Brown. One thing for certain is that I will have at least one Redskins’ WR, and either Marcus Wheaton or Jarius Wright as my final option.
Pay To Play
Antonio Brown, Steelers @ CIN ($9600 DK, $9500 FD, $9500 FS)
Antonio Brown will be nearly 100% owned this week, there will be no fading him. This game is going to be a huge shootout and Brown has proved that even in tough matchups he can completely lambaste his opponent. Don’t be the only guy in your contest to not roster Brown, because when he goes off you won’t be able to make up the difference.
Stefon Diggs, Vikings vs. SEA ($4300 DK, $5800 FD, $5500 FS)
Stefon Diggs gets to endure a matchup against the toughest defense in the league against opposing WRs. The Hawks have allowed only six wide receiver receiving scores all year and only three since Week 11. This just isn’t worth trusting a guy who has topped 31 yards only once in his final six games of the year.
Jarius Wright, Vikings vs. SEA ($3000 DK, $4600 FD, $2300 FS)
As much as I don’t trust Diggs, I do trust Jarius Wright this week. Seattle may once again be without Kam Chancellor this week. That should provide shade for whoever lines up at TE and in the slot. Non-Number-one receivers and tight ends have fared well all season versus Seattle and without Kam it would be assumedly even better.
|Cecil Shorts III||$3,300||$5,200||$3,700|
Weekly strategy – Unless you want to pay a lot for Jordan Reed (and I wouldn’t blame you), you are spending roughly the same whomever you pick. I’m highest on Tyler Eifert and Kyle Rudolph and I don’t mind Heath Miller. I’m not listing him here, but if you want a crazy punt play consider MyCole (yes that is how he spells his name) Pruitt. I guarantee he will be at league minimum, and the Vikes #2 tight end is out for this week’s game. Pruitt is a legit pass-catching threat TE and he may be a sneaky fill-in. If you want to be even more crazy flip a three-sided die and choose a Seattle TE.
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Jordan Reed, Redskins vs. GB ($6300 DK, $7400 FD, $8300 FS)
I really like Jordan Reed this week and depending on what I throw at WR, I might decide to give some play to Reed as well. Green Bay struggled horribly with TEs earlier this year but they played better over the last four weeks. Prior to that, they had given up TDs in five straight. Meanwhile, Jordan Reed scored five TD over three weeks before sitting out most of Week 17.
Those Seattle TEs, Seahawks @ MIN (More than Enough)
The Minnesota Vikings have allowed a total of only two TE touchdowns since Week 8. This includes allowing a pittance of 3-49 to the combined Seattle TE corps in Week 13. Despite all the points Seattle scored versus Minnesota they couldn’t get their TEs involved at all. What makes it worse is that you don’t know which one (if any of them) will be the one to do even a mediocre job this week.
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings vs. SEA ($3500 DK, $5100 FD, $4800 FS)
As I mentioned above with Jarius Wright, the potential lack of Kam Chancellor increases the TE value on the Vikings. With Rhett Ellison injured, Kyle Rudolph and MyCole Pruitt will be the only healthy TEs for the Vikings this week. Seattle actually gave up more TE touchdowns than WR touchdowns this season and they were particularly bad early on this season before Chancellor joined them.
Weekly strategy – Seattle is the best option. I don’t mind Kansas City or Houston but I don’t love either of them. Depending on how much I have to work with, Seattle will likely get all of my play. If I run out of cash I could throw a punt at either Cincinnati or Washington.
Pay To Play
Seattle Seahawks, Seahawks @ MIN ($4100 DK, $5100 FD, $3700 FS)
In their earlier meeting, Seattle held Minnesota to 125 total yards and they sacked Teddy Bridgewater four times and forced an interception. I expect this game to be closer but due to the weather this game will likely be low scoring and physical. Physical games often come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes. I trust Russell Wilson a lot more than I trust Bridgewater.
Green Bay Packers, Packers @ WAS ($2800 DK, $4500 FD, $2500 FS)
A struggling Green Bay defense will have to figure out how to shut down one of the hottest QBs in the league. This will be hard because Washington has allowed only four sacks over the last three weeks and only three turnovers in the last six weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals, Bengals vs. PIT ($3200 DK, $4400 FD, $3400 FS)
All signs point to this game being high scoring so if your league penalizes for points allowed I’d avoid it. That said Pittsburgh does give the ball up a lot so you could get some value here. In fact since Week 7, they have given up multiple turnovers in every game except one.