Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks

Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks

Strength of Schedule

Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks

2015 Passing Fantasy Points
Allowed
Per Game
20 Best
Matchups
20 Worst
Matchups
@NO 30.4 @IND 19.8
NO 26.7 @OAK 19.8
PHI 26.5 @MIA 19.8
IND 26.1 @ARI 19.7
WAS 26.0 MIN 19.4
@TEN 24.5 @ATL 19.0
DET 24.4 @CAR 18.6
CLE 24.3 BAL 18.6
@BAL 24.2 @KC 18.3
TB 24.2 @SEA 18.2
OAK 24.1 @NE 18.0
@NYG 24.1 @NYJ 17.9
JAC 24.0 DAL 17.8
MIA 24.0 DEN 17.6
NE 23.8 @SF 17.1
@CHI 23.7 @CIN 16.9
@CLE 23.6 @HOU 16.8
@PIT 23.6 @GB 16.8
HOU 23.1 @DEN 15.8
SF 23.0 SEA 15.4

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and then applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen – facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below – Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule – “draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks”.

A Bye week is considered a “bad” week though everyone has one. It really only matters if it falls in the first six weeks.

This analysis awards and 0.05 points per pass yard. Touchdowns are worth four points.

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Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season) Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule) Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
SOS Good Bad SOS Good Bad SOS Good Bad
BAL 6 8 2 BAL 4 4 0 DAL 3 3 0
CIN 4 8 4 OAK 3 3 0 BUF 2 2 0
DAL 4 7 3 WAS 3 4 1 PHI 2 2 0
NYG 3 6 3 NE 2 3 1 TB 2 2 0
OAK 3 5 2 NO 2 2 0 BAL 1 2 1
CHI 2 6 4 PHI 2 2 0 CHI 1 1 0
DEN 2 5 3 ARI 1 2 1 DEN 1 2 1
DET 2 6 4 BUF 1 2 1 DET 1 1 0
MIN 2 5 3 CHI 1 3 2 SD 1 2 1
PHI 2 5 3 JAC 1 2 1 WAS 1 1 0
BUF 1 6 5 MIN 1 2 1 ATL 0 1 1
GB 1 5 4 SEA 1 2 1 CAR 0 0 0
WAS 1 5 4 CAR 0 3 3 CIN 0 1 1
JAC 0 5 5 CLE 0 2 2 CLE 0 0 0
SEA 0 4 4 DEN 0 1 1 HOU 0 1 1
ARI -1 5 6 DET 0 2 2 IND 0 1 1
ATL -1 3 4 GB 0 1 1 KC 0 1 1
CAR -1 4 5 HOU 0 1 1 LA 0 1 1
CLE -1 3 4 NYG 0 2 2 MIN 0 1 1
MIA -1 3 4 ATL -1 2 3 NO 0 1 1
TEN -1 5 6 CIN -1 2 3 NYG 0 1 1
HOU -2 3 5 IND -1 1 2 OAK 0 1 1
IND -2 3 5 KC -1 1 2 ARI -1 1 2
KC -2 5 7 PIT -1 0 1 GB -1 1 2
NE -2 4 6 TEN -1 2 3 MIA -1 0 1
NO -2 4 6 DAL -2 0 2 NYJ -1 1 2
NYJ -2 5 7 MIA -2 1 3 SEA -1 0 1
PIT -2 3 5 NYJ -2 1 3 SF -1 0 1
SD -2 6 8 SD -2 2 4 JAC -2 0 2
SF -2 4 6 LA -3 0 3 NE -2 0 2
LA -3 3 6 SF -3 0 3 PIT -2 0 2
TB -4 3 7 TB -4 0 4 TEN -2 0 2

Notable Schedules:

Joe Flacco (Ravens) – Other than playing at the Jets and at the Patriots, the entire schedule is no worse than average and even ends the fantasy season with Week 15 versus the Eagles and Week 16 playing at the Steelers.  And Flacco threw for 3,986 yards and 27 scores in 2014 before injuries punished the Ravens last year. He should bounce back.

Andy Dalton (Bengals) – The Bengals were also dogged by injuries in 2015 and yet get one of the lightest schedules for quarterbacks. Starting out at the Jets, the Broncos and at the Patriots over the first five games won’t be easy but his schedule lightens up considerably the rest of the way.  Dalton ends the fantasy season playing the Eagles, Browns and Steelers. He’s a great back-up that could start a lot of your late season games.

Tony Romo (Cowboys) – While he has no softer games over the first seven weeks, Romo enjoys seven soft matchups over his final nine weeks. That includes ending the fantasy season at the Giants and against the Buccaneers and Lions for the only quarterback with only good matchups for each fantasy playoff week. A healthy Romo and Dez Bryant get to rekindle their chemistry with the best of all schedules starting in Week 8 and beyond.

Jameis Winston (Buccaneers) – He had a good rookie year and they’re opening up the playbook for him. But he gets the worst schedule of any quarterback this year thanks to facing both the AFC West and NFC West. He’ll have longer road trips against much tougher defenses.  Oddly, two of his only three soft games come during fantasy playoffs when he faces the Saints in Weeks 14 and 16. Otherwise – the schedule could cause a sophomore slump.

Week – By – Week

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI NE TB @BUF LA @SF NYJ SEA @CAR BYE SF @MIN @ATL WAS @MIA NO @SEA
ATL TB @OAK @NO CAR @DEN @SEA SD GB @TB @PHI BYE ARI KC @LA SF @CAR
BAL BUF @CLE @JAC OAK WAS @NYG @NYJ BYE PIT CLE @DAL CIN MIA @NE PHI @PIT
BUF @BAL NYJ ARI @NE @LA SF @MIA NE @SEA BYE @CIN JAC @OAK PIT CLE MIA
CAR @DEN SF MIN @ATL TB @NO BYE ARI @LA KC NO @OAK @SEA SD @WAS ATL
CHI @HOU PHI @DAL DET @IND JAC @GB MIN BYE @TB @NYG TEN SF @DET GB WAS
CIN @NYJ @PIT DEN MIA @DAL @NE CLE WAS BYE @NYG BUF @BAL PHI @CLE PIT @HOU
CLE @PHI BAL @MIA @WAS NE @TEN @CIN NYJ DAL @BAL PIT NYG BYE CIN @BUF SD
DAL NYG @WAS CHI @SF CIN @GB BYE PHI @CLE @PIT BAL WAS @MIN @NYG TB DET
DEN CAR IND @CIN @TB ATL @SD HOU SD @OAK @NO BYE KC @JAC @TEN NE @KC
DET @IND TEN @GB @CHI PHI LA WAS @HOU @MIN BYE JAC MIN @NO CHI @NYG @DAL
GB @JAC @MIN DET BYE NYG DAL CHI @ATL IND @TEN @WAS @PHI HOU SEA @CHI MIN
HOU CHI KC @NE TEN @MIN IND @DEN DET BYE @JAC @OAK SD @GB @IND JAC CIN
IND DET @DEN SD @JAC CHI @HOU @TEN KC @GB BYE TEN PIT @NYJ HOU @MIN @OAK
JAC GB @SD BAL IND BYE @CHI OAK @TEN @KC HOU @DET @BUF DEN MIN @HOU TEN
KC SD @HOU NYJ @PIT BYE @OAK NO @IND JAC @CAR TB @DEN @ATL OAK TEN DEN
LA @SF SEA @TB @ARI BUF @DET NYG BYE CAR @NYJ MIA @NO @NE ATL @SEA SF
MIA @SEA @NE CLE @CIN TEN PIT BUF BYE NYJ @SD @LA SF @BAL ARI @NYJ @BUF
MIN @TEN GB @CAR NYG HOU BYE @PHI @CHI DET @WAS ARI @DET DAL @JAC IND @GB
NE @ARI MIA HOU BUF @CLE CIN @PIT @BUF BYE SEA @SF @NYJ LA BAL @DEN NYJ
NO OAK @NYG ATL @SD BYE CAR @KC SEA @SF DEN @CAR LA DET @TB @ARI TB
NYG @DAL NO WAS @MIN @GB BAL @LA BYE P HI CIN CHI @CLE @PIT DAL DET @PHI
NYJ CIN @BUF @KC SEA @PIT @ARI BAL @CLE @MIA LA BYE NE IND @SF MIA @NE
OAK @NO ATL @TEN @BAL SD KC @JAC @TB DEN BYE HOU CAR BUF @KC @SD IND
PHI CLE @CHI PIT BYE @DET @WAS MIN @DAL @NYG ATL @SEA GB @CIN WAS @BAL NYG
PIT @WAS CIN @PHI KC NYJ @MIA NE BYE @BAL DAL @CLE @IND NYG @BUF @CIN BAL
SD @KC JAC @IND NO @OAK DEN @ATL @DEN TEN MIA BYE @HOU TB @CAR OAK @CLE
SEA MIA @LA SF @NYJ BYE ATL @ARI @NO BUF @NE PHI @TB CAR @GB LA ARI
SF LA @CAR @SEA DAL ARI @BUF TB BYE NO @ARI NE @MIA @CHI NYJ @ATL @LA
TB @ATL @ARI LA DEN @CAR BYE @SF OAK ATL CHI @KC SEA @SD NO @DAL @NO
TEN MIN @DET OAK @HOU @MIA CLE IND JAC @SD GB @IND @CHI BYE DEN @KC @JAC
WAS PIT DAL @NYG CLE @BAL PHI @DET @CIN BYE MIN GB @DAL @ARI @PHI CAR @CHI

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