Free Agent Forecast: Week 11

Free Agent Forecast: Week 11

Roster Management

Free Agent Forecast: Week 11

Free Agent Auction
Bid (FAAB) Scale
$ $0 – $5
$$ $6 – $15
$$$ $16 – $25
$$$$ $26 – $40
$$$$$ $41+
Based on $100 cap,
12-team league.

Given the diverse scoring systems and sizes of fantasy leagues, producing a weekly list of free agents that satisfies the masses can be challenging. For the most part, the column will hone in on players who are available in at least 35% of all fantasy leagues. If you play in a small league (8 teams), chances are there may be better players to pick up than you see listed here. If you play in a large league (16 teams), the majority of the players highlighted may already be on a squad; however, expect to find hidden gems, as well.

Quarterbacks

1 Week Plug & Play

Alex Smith, Chiefs
Last week we recommended using Jay Cutler against the Buccaneers defense. That didn’t work. Cutler’s one positive play was on a desperation Hail Marry at the end of the half. While it’s obvious you can’t trust Cutler versus any defense, let’s give Smith a try. The Buccaneers still rank last in the NFL in pass defense. Smith may not be a fantasy stud but he can put up solid numbers against bad defenses. He should be good for around 20 fantasy points this week if you’re in a pinch and need a starting quarterback off the waiver wire.
Availability: Owned in ~ 25% of leagues.
FAAB: $
Forecast: Smith is a high-end QB2 this week vs. the Buccaneers.

On the Radar: Ryan Tannehill (15%)

Running Backs

Rock Star

C.J. Prosise, Seahawks
The Seahawks finally unleashed Prosise Sunday night. Prosise led the Seahawks in both rushing and receiving against the Patriots. He ran the ball 17 times for 66 yards. Prosise added seven receptions for 87 yards. Thomas Rawls is expected to return this week and Christine Michael is still in the mix but it appears that Prosise is the Seahawks top back to own going forward. Rawls is still available in about half of leagues, so he’s an option as well, but Prosise offers higher upside in PPR formats. He should be this week’s top waiver wire target.
Availability: Owned in ~ 30% of leagues.
FAAB: $$$-$$$$
Forecast: Prosise will become a weekly starting option in PPR leagues.

Rob Kelley, Redskins
Kelley got the start at running back with Matt Jones being a healthy scratch Sunday. He rushed for 97 yards on 22 carries. Kelley is clearly the Redskins lead back moving forward and he’s still available in over half of fantasy leagues. Kelley isn’t a dynamic runner but he gets what’s blocked and he’ll see a majority of carries even when Jones is active. He should be owned in most fantasy leagues at this point.
Availability: Owned in ~ 45% of leagues.
FAAB: $$$
Forecast: Kelley is an RB2 most weeks.

James Starks, Packers
Starks returned from a knee injury Sunday. He carried the ball seven times for 33 yards. He also caught a touchdown pass. The Packers got behind early against the Titans and had to ditch the run. Green Bay has to get some kind of running game going forward and Starks is the only show in town. Starks is never going to be a fantasy stud but if he starts seeing 15+ touches a game, he’ll be on the low-end RB2/Flex radar.
Availability: Owned in ~ 25% of leagues.
FAAB: $$
Forecast: Starks is a low-end RB2/Flex play going forward.

Grab & Stash

Kapri Bibbs, Broncos
There was talk of Bibbs seeing more touches last week but he only got seven carries against the Saints. Devontae Booker was still the workhorse; carrying the ball 24 times for 76 yards (3.2 YPC). Booker is getting the touches since C.J. Anderson went on injured reserve but he hasn’t been very productive. In his last four games since taking over as the starter, Booker is averaging 4.9, 2.8, 2.2 and 3.2 yards per carry. It wasn’t realistic to think Bibbs would take over last week but if Booker continues to struggle, he could start seeing a lot more work. Bibbs is still worth adding if you have the roster room.
Availability: Owned in ~ 15% of leagues.
FAAB: $-$$
Forecast: Bibbs is a stash for the final month of the season.

Dion Lewis, Patriots
Lewis was activated off the PUP list last week but he didn’t play against the Seahawks Sunday night. It’s hard to know how much fantasy value Lewis will have over the next six weeks. James White has played well this year and we don’t know what kind of role Lewis is going to have in the Patriots offense yet. If you’re happy with your running back situation, it’s not worth reaching for Lewis. However, if you’re rolling the dice every week on lottery tickets for the rest of the year, Lewis is worth a shot. Should something happen to White, Lewis’ fantasy value over the final month would get a big bump.
Availability: Owned in ~ 40% of leagues.
FAAB: $
Forecast: Lewis is worth stashing in deeper leagues.

On the Radar: Kenneth Dixon (10%), Akeem Hunt (1%), Paul Perkins (30%), Thomas Rawls (45%), Wendell Smallwood (1%)

Wide Receivers

Rock Star

Michael Floyd, Cardinals
Last week Cardinals coach Bruce Arians announced that J.J. Nelson had overtaken Floyd as the team’s No. 2 receiver. That didn’t work. Floyd caught 5-of-6 targets for 101 yards against the 49ers, while Nelson finished with two receptions, 29 yards and a fumble. Floyd is having a disappointing year overall. This was his first 100-yard game and he’s only scored twice. Still, being demoted may have lit a fire under Floyd and when looking at the receiver options available on the waiver wire, he could be a steal right now if he starts playing up to his talent level.
Availability: Owned in ~ 45% of leagues.
FAAB: $$-$$$
Forecast: Floyd is a WR3/4 for the rest of the year.

Rishard Matthews, Titans
The beat goes on. Matthews only caught three passes on Sunday but as usual, one of them went for a touchdown. He’s now scored six touchdowns in the last six games. Matthews’ fantasy value is largely touchdown dependent but like with Allen Hurns last year, why not ride the wave? Marcus Mariota is red hot and Matthews is scoring every week. Until that ends, keep starting him.
Availability: Owned in ~ 45% of leagues.
FAAB: $$-$$$
Forecast: Matthews is a weekly WR3/4.

1 Week Plug & Play/Grab & Stash

Robert Woods, Bills
With Sammy Watkins out, Woods has emerged as the Bills top receiver. In his last game against the Seahawks before Buffalo’s bye week, Woods caught 10 passes for 162 yards. Woods has 19 receptions, 256 yards and a touchdown on 25 targets over his last three games. He has a tough matchup against the Bengals this week but Woods is clearly Tyrod Taylor’s No. 1 option for the receiver-starved Bills. He’ll get his looks.
Availability: Owned in ~ 45% of leagues.
FAAB: $$
Forecast: Woods is a WR3/4 this week in PPR formats.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
With Jeremy Maclin inactive on Sunday, Hill took over as the Chiefs clear No. 1 receiver. Hill caught 10-of-13 targets for 89 yards. He now has 18 receptions on 24 targets in his last three games. Hill will be inconsistent from week-to-week in the Chiefs offense but he has a strong matchup on Sunday against the Buccaneers, especially if Maclin is out again. Tampa Bay’s secondary has struggled this year giving up big plays and while the Chiefs don’t take a lot of shots down the field, Hill should be able to exploit that weakness with his blazing speed. Hill has scored four times this year and he’s gained at least 89 yards in two of his last three games. He’s on the rise.
Availability: Owned in ~ 8% of leagues.
FAAB: $-$$
Forecast: Hill is a WR3/4 this week if Maclin is out again.

Eli Rogers, Steelers
We recommended Rogers as a start against the Cowboys and he responded with a solid game. When Ben Roethlisberger took a breather from throwing to Antonio Brown, he looked Roger’s way. Rogers finished with four receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown. He has 10 receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets over his last two games. As mentioned last week, Rogers’ production is likely to be inconsistent but he has another favorable matchup against the Browns. Ride Rogers for another week if you need a receiver.
Availability: Owned in ~ 20% of leagues.
FAAB: $-$$
Forecast: Rogers is a WR4/Flex option this week vs. the Browns.

Grab & Stash

DeVante Parker, Dolphins
Parker put up his first 100-yard game since Week 1 on Sunday. He finished with five receptions for 103 yards on eight targets against the Chargers. It’s only the third time all year Parker has had 5+ receptions and 70 yards receiving in a game but at this point in the season we’re looking for upside. Parker has talent. Injuries and shaky quarterback play have limited his fantasy production to this point in his career. The Dolphins are a run-first team now but there’s a chance Parker emerges as a fantasy factor over the final month of the season. He’s worth picking up in deeper formats where the waiver wire has thinned out.
Availability: Owned in ~ 40% of leagues.
FAAB: $-$$
Forecast: Parker is a stash in deeper leagues for the final month of the season.  

On the Radar: Robby Anderson (1%), Kenny Britt (50%), Adam Humphries (5%), Marqise Lee (3%), J.J. Nelson (25%)

Tight Ends

Rock Star

Cameron Brate, Buccaneers
It’s hard to believe Brate is still available in close to 70 percent of fantasy leagues. Brate caught seven passes for 84 yards and a touchdown against the Bears. He’s now scored in three straight games. Brate is now tied for the NFL lead among tight ends with five touchdowns this year. He’s been targeted 18 times in the last three games and remains one of Jameis Winston’s top red zone targets. Brate is a weekly TE1 on a team that lacks options at receiver.
Availability: Owned in ~ 30% of leagues.
FAAB: $$
Forecast: Brate has emerged as a weekly TE1.

1 Week Plug & Pay/Grab & Stash

Eric Ebron, Lions
In his two games since coming back from an ankle injury, Ebron has 14 receptions for 171 yards on 18 targets. Ebron has caught at least five passes in four of the six games he’s played this year. He gets a Jacksonville defense that’s generous when it comes to allowing points to opposing tight ends. Ebron is a strong start both this week and beyond.
Availability: Owned in ~ 5% of leagues.
FAAB: $-$$
Forecast: Ebron is a TE1 vs. the Jaguars and in the future when the matchup is favorable.

Ladarius Green, Steelers
Green only played 12 snaps on Sunday but he looked healthy and he should start seeing more playing time going forward. He caught 3-of-4 targets for 30 yards against the Cowboys. Green has a great matchup this week against a Browns defense that has no clue how to cover tight ends. He has a shot to break out, even in a limited role. Green is in the streaming conversation this week but he’s also a good stash for the rest of the season if you need more depth at tight end.
Availability: Owned in ~ 5% of leagues.
FAAB: $-$$
Forecast: Green is a TE2 this week and a stash for the rest of the year.

On the Radar: Vernon Davis (20%)

Kickers

1 Week Plug & Play

Cairo Santos, Chiefs
Santos is still available in roughly 40 percent of fantasy leagues if you need a kicker this week. No kicker in the NFL has gotten more work over the last three games. Santos has made 11 field goals over that span and four each in his last two games. The Buccaneers defense is like playing against air unless you’re Jay Cutler, so Santos should get plenty of opportunities on Sunday. He’s a top play this week.
Availability: Owned in ~ 60% of leagues.
FAAB: $
Forecast: Santos is a top play at kicker for Week 11.

On the Radar: Caleb Sturgis (40%)

Defense/Specials Teams

Rock Star

Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins defense is rolling and it has a favorable schedule over the next month starting this week with the Rams. Over its last two games, Miami’s defense has recorded six sacks, six interceptions and scored a touchdown. The Dolphins next six games are against the Rams, 49ers, Ravens, Cardinals, Jets and Bills. The Dolphins defense got off to a slow start but its playing well of late and that should continue over the final month and a half of the season given the favorable schedule.
Availability: Owned in ~ 10% of leagues.
FAAB: $
Forecast: The Dolphins defense is a Top 12 play for the rest of the year.

On the Radar: New York Giants (30%)

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