Well most of you are probably done with your season long fantasy football leagues by now so you are here because you still need to get your DFS fix. Fortunately for you, the Daily Dominator will run each week for the next four weeks leading right up to the Conference Championship.
This week there are no “odd day” contests. That means that all the players in all 16 games are available in each of the major GPPs. In addition, a lot of teams will be resting key players, so there may be more volume-values than normal, and some big-name players will receive RED grades because they will likely not play at all – or at least play minimal snaps.
For those playing on FD, I recommend targeting: Kai Forbath, Will Lutz, Matt Bryant, Mason Crosby, and Adam Vinatieri at kicker. These games will all be indoors so there is no threat of weather. Bryant and Vinatieri are both a shade north of 5K, but each of the others cost less than the 5K line. I also would not be upset if you rolled with Justin Tucker at 5.2K regardless of weather conditions since his production has been absolutely ridiculous recently.
There are several delicious options at defense this week. The Bills get to face the walking-interception, known as Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Texans and Broncos get to face second-string QBs due to fractured fibulas last week. Also, the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Steelers face troubled QB situations in SF, CLE, and LA. You’ll pay between 3K-3.5K for any of these teams on DK and they are all in the 4.5K-5.2K range on FD. One sleeper to consider is Oakland if Denver starts Paxton Lynch. Their price is considerably lower than the rest (especially on DK). The Jets defense may also be in as a punt play, at basically league-minimum, versus a Bills team that is planning on starting the train wreck, E.J. Manuel.
Both halves of the ATL-NO matchup look appealing at QB, and weather won’t be a factor there, as do both halves of the TB-CAR matchup for a few less bucks. That said, with a lot of volume-values at RB this week, I’d say the smart play this week is to pay up for Aaron Rodgers versus the Lions (indoors and on primetime) in a game that means everything. He will be my primary play. I also like Stafford in that game for a little less if you want to spend more at RB. Russell Wilson is also a fairly safe option. If you want to punt the position for a GPP lineup consider: Blake Bortles, Tom Savage, or Landry Jones. They all have appealing matchups at bargain-basement prices.
I’m flat out not going to spend any serious money at RB this week. If I get anyone high-priced it might be David Johnson. Outside of that, Bilal Powell, and maybe LeGarrette Blount are the only guys in the top-15 price-wise that will likely return a value above cost. The players I will be filling my lineups with are: DeAngelo Williams, Charcandrick West (if Spencer Ware sits out), Chris Ivory (if T.J. Yeldon sits out), Jacquizz Rodgers, Darren Sproles, Ronnie Hillman, and Zach Zenner (if Theo Riddick sits out). I can get any combination of three of these guys (including my DK FLEX) for under 15K on DK, and two of them for under 10K on FD.
There are more big-name WRs that will likely play this week, so I feel like I can afford to pay up here for those with good matchups. I could make a legit argument for spending 25K on Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson. I’ll probably roster two of the for 16.5K and then throw in a 6.5K-7K range guy like Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Doug Baldwin, or DeAndre Hopkins. If I need to save money at WR3, I may roll with Cameron Meredith, Tyreek Hill, or Donte Moncrief. I may also put together a lineup with a punt play or two, since guys like Paul Richardson, Will Fuller, Brandon LaFell, Kenny Stills and Eli Rogers will be under-owned and could explode. I will spend at least 20K total here one way or the other.
Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, and Zach Ertz are all stud options at reasonable prices. I could see rostering two of them on DK instead of that third RB. They will be on most of my rosters at the TE spot, with a sprinkling in of Jesse James, Jared Cook, and Charles Clay for cost savings when necessary.
Here are my recommendations for this week’s price range targets by position.
At DK: 7.7K for Aaron Rodgers, 10.4K combined for Jacquizz Rodgers and DeAngelo Williams, and approximately 4K for a third RB as DK FLEX, 14K-16K for WR1 & WR2, and 4.5K or less for WR3, 5K for Travis Kelce, and roughly 3.5K for the defense of your choice.
At FD: 8.8K for Rodgers, 9.7K for Williams and Jacquizz, 16.5K for two of: Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson, 6K or less for WR3, 6.8K for Kelce, and roughly 10K combined for kicker and defense.
Prices indicated: Red = Negative Value and Black = Acceptable Value and Green = Great Value
|Robert Griffin III||$5,000||$6,200|
Weekly strategy – I will have a lot of exposure to Aaron Rodgers in a must-win game for the Pack. If I want a safe floor alternate to Rodgers, I could go with Winston, Newton, Ryan, or Brees. If you need to save money or you want to be contrarian you could easily punt with Tom Savage, Alex Smith, Matt Moore, Blake Bortles, or Landry Jones. I just feel that I’d rather spend here than RB this week.
Your Fantasy Four Pack
Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ DET ($7700 DK, $8800 FD)
This is a win-and-in game. It is indoors so weather won’t be a factor. Plus, the Lions have allowed the sixth-most passing TDs – including four in their earlier meeting with the Pack. Aaron Rodgers will put the team on his shoulders making 300-3 the floor, and I could see a very real situation where he throws it 60 times and scores FIVE touchdowns.
Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. NO ($7400 DK, $8700 FD)
Matt Ryan has averaged 328-2 against the Saints over their last five meetings. That is what you can expect again, especially since Julio Jones appears to be fully healthy once again. The Falcons are playing for a bye in the first round so they will be giving it their all, and I guarantee Sean Payton wants to play spoiler. Vegas thinks this will be a high scoring game as the line is set at 56.5. Even at this high figure I’d gladly pound the over.
Tom Brady, Patriots @ MIA ($7200 DK, $9100 FD)
This game actually matters for the Patriots, so you know Tom Brady will be giving it his all. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed 16 passing TDs. This comes despite facing a group of quarterbacks that would fear no one. Earlier this year, the Patriots’ backup quarterbacks threw for 324-3 against the ‘Phins. I actually believe NE will pound the ball with Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount in this game, but Brady will still lock in for two or three TDs.
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers vs. CAR ($6100 DK, $7800 FD)
The Panthers are consistent on the road. In each of their last three road games they have given up exactly 315 passing yards. They have gotten progressively better allowing 2,1, and 0 TDs respectively, but now they have nowhere to go but back up. It is extremely thin, but the Buccaneers are still technically alive in the playoff hunt. This means that Jameis Winston will give it his all.
Tom Savage, Texans @ TEN ($5400 DK, $6600 FD)
Tennessee has allowed the most passing yards per game and only three times since Week 6 have they not allowed 300 passing yards in a game. Tom Savage hasn’t done much with his two starts, but he is at least competent (something that cannot be said about Brock Osweiler). If you want a deep punt play for GPP, he is a shot in the dark. I doubt I’d dive this far, but you could do a lot worse this week.
Landry Jones, Steelers vs. CLE ($5000 DK, $6000 FD)
It’s the Cleveland Browns, I could throw for 300 yards against them. Only three times all season have they not given up multiple passing TDs. Landry Jones will score two touchdowns without much effort here, but I expect DeAngelo Williams to do the bulk of the heavy lifting.
|Duke Johnson Jr.||$3,500||$4,800|
Weekly strategy – I can see a possibility of rostering some shares of David Johnson (especially on FD), but most of my RB lineups will consist of Jacquizz Rodgers and DeAngelo Williams. I could also roster Chris Ivory, Charcandrick West, Alex Collins, Ronnie Hillman, Darren Sproles, or Zach Zenner as my DK FLEX or just as punt to save money.
Your Fantasy Four Pack
David Johnson, Cardinals @ LAR ($9800 DK, $9300 FD)
The Rams have actually been pretty good against opposing RBs. They have given up only three RB rushing TDs since Week 8. Nevertheless, this is David Johnson. He has five rushing TDs over the last two weeks despite facing tough run defenses. He has also topped 100 combo yards in every game this season. Expecting less than 120-1 from him is foolish, I just feel I can get that floor from some other guys this week a lot cheaper.
Devonta Freeman, Falcons vs. NOS ($7000 DK, $8000 FD)
The Saints have allowed five running back rushing TDs over the last three weeks. They have also given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing RBs. This game should be high-scoring, which means ample point potential for Devonta Freeman. The Saints should be used to Freeman scoring, he has at least one touchdown in four of his five career games against them. Plus, he went off for 207 total yards in their earlier meeting this year.
Bilal Powell, Jets vs. BUF ($6500 DK, $6600 FD)
The Bills have allowed the second-most running back rushing TDs. This includes seven over the last four weeks. During that span both Pittsburgh and Miami topped 240 RB rushing yards against them. Bilal Powell has stepped in for the injured Matt Forte and averaged 138 combo yards per game over the last three weeks. Forte remains questionable for this week, but Powell is also battling an illness. If he gets another start, he is guaranteed to score, but check his practice status Friday.
LeGarrette Blount, Patriots @ MIA ($5700 DK, $7600 FD)
Eight different times this season, Miami has allowed 100 RB rushing yards in a game. This includes four straight since Week 13. Back in Week 2, LeGarrette Blount ran all over Miami to the tune of 123-1. I’d expect a similar game script and line this week, since this is a game NE needs to win for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
Jacquizz Rodgers, Buccaneers vs. CAR ($4900 DK, $5200 FD)
Doug Martin – out. Charles Sims – out. Peyton Barber – not good. Jacquizz Rodgers – all the touches. Thanks, in part, to Luke Kuechly’s injury, Carolina has allowed five running back rushing TDs over the last five games. In the four games that Rodgers has handled the lions’ shares of the carries, he has averaged 112 combo yards and he has two scores.
DeAngelo Williams, Steelers vs. CLE ($5500 DK, $4500 FD)
DeAngelo Williams is slated to be the primary ball carrier for the Steelers this weekend against the awful Cleveland Browns. The Browns have allowed an average of 161 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. In Week 11, LeVeon Bell posted 201 total yards and a score. I’ll be happy with 2/3 of that for DeAngelo’s price tag.
|Odell Beckham Jr.||$9,000||$8,800|
|Steve Smith Sr.||$4,900||$5,800|
|Ted Ginn Jr.||$4,500||$4,900|
|Will Fuller V||$4,500||$5,100|
|Marvin Jones Jr.||$4,200||$5,600|
|Terrelle Pryor Sr.||$4,200||$5,900|
Weekly strategy – I’m not spending up at RB, so I may try to fit all three of the premiere WRs into one lineup or two. Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Mike Evans all have great matchups and no real reason to worry about their not playing the whole game. I will likely have at least two of them in each of my lineups. They will be paired with somebody from this list: Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill, Donte Moncrief, Brandon LaFell, Will Fuller, Eli Rogers, Kenny Stills, and Paul Richardson. If I do spend up for David Johnson at RB, then I will likely roster Jordy paired with two of the guys on that list. No matter what happens, Jordy Nelson will be on all my rosters. Other possible WR2 choices include: Doug Baldwin, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas, and DeAndre Hopkins. I like each of them but will only have minor exposure to them as contrarian options.
Your Fantasy Four Pack
Jordy Nelson, Packers @ DET ($8100 DK, $8200 FD)
Jordy Nelson has scored nine touchdowns over the last nine games. This includes four over the last three weeks. Earlier this year, he posted 6-101-2 against these very same Lions. Expect more of the same this week since Detroit is getting lit up by WRs recently. Over the last three weeks they have given up six WR scores (including two to Dez Bryant last week).
Mike Evans, Buccaneers vs. CAR ($8000 DK, $8400 FD)
Six times this year Carolina has allowed more than 190 yards to opposing WRs. This includes three times in their last five games. In Week 5, Mike Evans posted 6-89-1 against them. This was the third time in his brief career that Evans has scored and/or topped 90 yards against Carolina.
Julio Jones, Falcons vs. NOS ($8400 DK, $8300 FD)
Julio Jones has topped 75 yards in seven of ten career games against New Orleans, but he has only scored twice against them. I detailed above how this game should be a point orgy. There is zero chance that Matt Ryan doesn’t exploit New Orleans’ secondary with his best weapon. Jones appears to be fully over his injury from earlier this year making him the third-safest option for this week.
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks @ SF ($7200 DK, $7100 FD)
I will have some exposure to the Russell Wilson-Doug Baldwin stack this week against the team that has allowed the third-most total touchdowns to opposing WRs. More likely however, I will go contrarian and play Paul Richardson or Jermaine Kearse to save money at WR3. Baldwin has been electric of late, scoring in back-to-back games and racking up 36 targets over the last three contests. With no Tyler Lockett, Baldwin will be targeted even more frequently now.
Adam Thielen, Vikings vs. CHI ($5600 DK, $6500 FD)
Adam Thielen is hardly a sleeper anymore after leading all WR in yards last week. Fortunately, the sites have not bumped his salary up into the top echelon just yet. 11 times this season Chicago has allowed more than 150 yards to opposing WR groups. Since Week 11, Thielen leads all Minnesota offensive players in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs.
Eli Rogers, Steelers vs. CLE ($4000 DK, $4700 FD)
With Antonio Brown sitting this game out, Eli Rogers will be the top WR option or Landry Jones to throw to. Over the last two weeks, Rogers has averaged 80 receiving yards, and he scored one TD. Cleveland has allowed multiple WR touchdowns seven different times this year. What I’m not sure about is whether Rogers will get one or two TDs. I guess it depends on how much DeAngelo Williams chooses to share.
Weekly strategy – I will have the money to spend this week, so I will easily roster Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, or Zach Ertz on most of my rosters. Kelce will be the primary option since he has been molton-hot recently. I doubt I will need to save here, but if I do (or if I want to go Double-TE for my DK FLEX) I could roster Charles Clay, Jesse James, or Jared Cook in good matchups.
Your Fantasy Four Pack
Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ SD ($5000 DK, $6800 FD)
Travis Kelce has topped 100 yards in six of his last nine games. This means you are getting a WR1 production level for the price of a WR2/WR3. If his name was Gronkowski (or if he caught more TDs) his salary would probably be closer to $8K. As is, he is the safest and smartest play at the TE position this week. The Chargers have allowed more than 75 yards to the position in four of their last five games.
Greg Olsen, Panthers @ TB ($5500 DK, $6900 FD)
Keep tabs on whether Greg Olsen practices Friday as he has been battling an elbow injury for a few weeks. Even with the limitation he set a record last week with his third straight 1000-yard season. Olsen accosted the Bucs for 9-181 back in Week 5, so we know he can do some serious damage here given the chance. I expect he will play and look to help the Panthers kill off any remaining playoff hopes of Tampa.
Jimmy Graham, Seahawks @ SF ($4500 DK, $6400 FD)
Seattle needs this game for a bye next week and they will be without one of their top receiving options in Tyler Lockett. I expect that Paul Richardson and Jermaine Kearse will see an uptick in touches, but Jimmy Graham should also see a little more passing game action. Meanwhile, San Fran has allowed TE scores in three of their last five games.
Zach Ertz, Eagles vs. DAL ($4800 DK, $5900 FD)
Since Week 9, Zach Ertz is tied with Travis Kelce for most targets and receptions by a TE. He also ranks second to Kelce in receiving yards over that span. The Cowboys have allowed the second-most receptions and the third-most yards to opposing TEs. This includes allowing an average of 8.4-86 to the position over the last five weeks.
Charles Clay, Bills @ NYJ ($3500 DK, $5600 FD)
The Jets have given up seven TE touchdowns over the last four games. Charles Clay has scored four times in his last three. It isn’t a question of will Clay score, the question is how many times will Clay score.
Jesse James, Browns vs. CLE ($3000 DK, $4500 FD)
Ladarius Green remains in the concussion protocol and with nothing to play for I expect he will skip this game. Jesse James (and possibly Xavier Grimble) each should be active in the Steelers’ passing game. Cleveland gives away TE scores more frequently than fruitcake is re-gifted. They have allowed four over the last three weeks, and they have allowed the most on the year.