Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule Swings

David Dorey, @DMDorey

Schedule Swings are the difference in strength of schedule that a team has from last year to this season. It considers what defenses allowed in 2015 and then applies it both to last year (to see how truly easy or tough a schedule was) and this year. And then it compares the two to show how much tougher a schedule is or isn't. Bottom line - if a schedule is roughly the same strength as last year and no other dynamics are at play, then a player should end up about the same. If a player had a big 2015 but his schedule was far easier than this year, then he's most likely due for a downgrade. And if a player excelled against a bad schedule in 2015 and now has a great one, man - grab that guy.

Without making this all excessively complicated, you can view here what each defense/venue allowed per game in 2015 and how each one was a relative advantage or disadvantage.

Applying those values against the 2015 schedule for each team yielded this total point advantage by teams last year. This was what they actually faced regardless if they took advantage.

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