Game Predictions & Player Projections - SEA vs. NYJ

David Dorey, @DMDorey

Prediction: SEA 20, NYJ 16 (Line: Open, O/U = 40)

UPDATE: Jimmy Graham is listed as questionable but was back for a full practice on Friday and is expected to play. Eric Decker is out with a torn rotator cuff and Quincy Enunwa will take his place. This is a bad matchup anyway.

The 2-1 Seahawks just found their offense but are still looking for their first road win. The 1-2 Jets lost all signs of their offense last week and are looking for their first home win.

Seattle Seahawks

1 MIA 12-10 10 @NE ---
2 @LA 3-9 11 PHI ---
3 SF 37-18 12 @TB ---
4 @NYJ --- 13 CAR ---
5 BYE --- 14 @GB ---
6 ATL --- 15 LA ---
7 @ARI --- 16 ARI ---
8 @NO --- 17 @SF ---
9 BUF ---      
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 250,1
WR Doug Baldwin 6-90,1
WR Tyler Lockett 2-30
TE Jimmy Graham 5-80
PK Blair Walsh 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The offense finally showed up last week and and while it required two quarterbacks, both the rushing and passing offenses were hitting on all cylinders. Relying on just one back produced very nice fantasy points for Christine Michael and suddenly Jimmy Graham has become a factor, even if it apparently killed Tyler Lockett's role. There's only a bye on the other side of this game, the Seahawks need this win to keep up with the Rams.

QUARTERBACK : Russell Wilson hasn't done much as a runner in any game this year and now that he has a sprained MCL, that's not going to change any time soon. Wilson has been right around 250 passing yards in each game with only two scores though Trevone Boykin tossed a touchdown last week in relief.

The assumption is that Wilson can play this week with limitations only to his mobility. Updates as warranted.

RUNNING BACK : Thomas Rawls has a hairline fracture to his fibula and will be out multiple weeks. That leaves Christine Michael as the starter at least until Rawls returns and potentially for good. Michael ran for 106 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries last week and has a 5.2 yard per carry average this season. Rawls, though playing injured, only averaged 1.3 yards on his 19 runs.

There is no question as to who the starter is with Rawls out and likely even when he is back. Michael's level of play defies his previous three seasons.

WIDE RECEIVER : Doug Baldwin scorched the 49ers for eight catches and 164 yards with one score. That bookends big games around the disaster in Los Angeles and Baldwin caught two of the three receiving scores by the Seahawks. Tyler Lockett ended with 99 yards on four catches in the loss to the Rams but was never targeted last week. It appeared that Jimmy Graham's breakout game came at Lockett's expense. That puts Lockett's role in much jeopardy after a promising preseason and compliments from coaches suggested he was in for a larger workload this year.

TIGHT END : After only four catches for 52 yards over the first two weeks, Jimmy Graham became a major target for Russell Wilson when his nine targets became six receptions for 100 yards and one touchdown. Graham proclaimed himself healthy and ready to fully contribute last week and then delivered. That was only his second 100 yard game with the Seahawks and first score since Week 3 of 2015.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jets have been outstanding against the run and allowed just one touchdown to a runner and just over 60 rush yards per game. That will slow down Michael though he still is worth starting since he'll produce moderate yardage but has upside for more.

The Jets pass defense is not nearly as good as last year and even Darrelle Revis has been nothing to fear. They allowed A.J. Green to post 180 yards and a score in the opener in New York. So long as Russell Wilson is able to throw without limitation, both Baldwin and Jimmy Graham are worth starts. The Jets just allowed Travis Kelce to post 89 yards and a score last week. The question to be answered this week is whether their win over the 49ers represented a turning point for their offense or if they are going to continue to struggle in road games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 25 21 19 12 18 29
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 22 4 21 22 19 32

New York Jets

1 CIN 22-23 10 LA ---
2 @BUF 37-31 11 BYE ---
3 @KC 3-24 12 NE ---
4 SEA --- 13 IND ---
5 @PIT --- 14 @SF ---
6 @ARI --- 15 MIA ---
7 BAL --- 16 @NE ---
8 @CLE --- 17 BUF ---
9 @MIA ---      
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 80,1 3-20
RB Bilal Powell 20 6-50
WR Quincy Enunwa 4-50
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-30
PK Chandler Catanzaro 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It all went very bad last week and never improved. Now the Jets have to face these Seahawks, then trips to Pittsburgh and Arizona. The success passing the ball just has not been there with only three touchdowns and just one game with more than 190 passing yards. Adding Matt Forte is a huge upgrade but so far it seems at the expense of the success of the passing effort. That is not likely to improve facing a defense that has not allowed a passing score this year.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Fitzpatrick only threw three touchdowns over the first two weeks. While he passed for 374 yards in Buffalo, there was only one score and last week he not only threw for just 188 yards and no scores, but a personal record six interceptions. Three of those were in the endzone. Fitzpatrick has only been sacked twice this year but his stats are much lower than 2015 when he was scoring at will with both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall.

RUNNING BACK : While Matt Forte was held to only 64 total yards in the fiasco last week, it came on the heels of a 100 yard effort in Buffalo with three touchdowns. Notable was that in the only other home game, Forte caught five passes for 59 yards. Bilal Powell showed up with six catches last week but had nearly no touches for the first two games. Forte gets the only fantasy projection and should see at least a slight uptick in catches this week.

WIDE RECEIVER : Brandon Marshall was limited in practices last week because of a sprained knee but still played. He only managed three catches for 27 yards and that makes his 101-yard effort in Buffalo as his only decent performance so far. Eric Decker only managed one catch for 31 yards in Kansas City and like Marshall only the win over the Bills allowed him to post decent stats (6-126, TD). Quincy Enunwa mixes in as well but overall this unit is not as productive as 2015 and this upcoming schedule is not going to help.

TIGHT END : The Jets picked up Austin Sefarian-Jenkins from waivers but he joins a team that still doesn't have a reception by a tight end. In two games there were never even any passes to the position.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Bad news - the Seahawks have not allowed any passing touchdowns this year and no quarterback has more than 239 yards. But - Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert are not exactly tearing up any secondaries. This is the best offense that the Seahawks will have faced and that helps.

Fitzpatrick is not worth a start this week with a risk of a very bad game far greater than a good one. Marshall and Decker are hard to start but they are playing at home and could end up with moderate yardage. Decker draws Richard Sherman on most plays but Marshall is not playing well with his knee anyway.

Forte is still worth a start here and has a good shot at least for moderate yardage and a chance for bigger stats if they again use him as a receiver. Forte is also the best situated to score a touchdown of any Jet.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 28 9 7 32 11 24
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 3 6 1 7 7 15

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