Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs. PHI

David Dorey, @DMDorey

Prediction: GB 20, PHI 31 (Line: PHI by 3, O/U = 48)

UPDATE: Ryan Mathews is removed from the projections as he has not practiced due to his MCL injury. There is a chance he suddenly shows up on Saturday but I'll update if that happens. He does not appear likely to play.

This is the Monday night game and should be a good one. The 4-6 Packers have lost their last four games and are just 1-4 on the road thanks only to the Jaguars in the season opener. The 5-5 Eagles are 4-0 at home where they have never won by fewer than nine points. The Packers are going to show up soon but on the road is less likely a place to turn the team around.

Green Bay Packers

1 @JAC 27-23 10 @TEN 25-47
2 @MIN 14-17 11 @WAS 24-42
3 DET 34-27 12 @PHI ---
4 BYE --- 13 HOU ---
5 NYG 23-16 14 SEA ---
6 DAL 16-30 15 @CHI ---
7 CHI 26-10 16 MIN ---
8 @ATL 32-33 17 @DET ---
9 IND 26-31      
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 30 300,2
RB Ty Montgomery 20 3-20
WR Davante Adams 5-70
WR Randall Cobb 4-50,1
TE Jimmy Graham 5-50,1
TE Lance Kendricks 4-40
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers continue their slide thanks mostly to rampant injuries and hitting a tougher stretch in the schedule with four road games over five weeks. After this week, they'll still face good defenses in the Texans and Seahawks before spinning through the division for the final three weeks. The problem has been less about the offense than it is the defense that has allowed at least 31 points in each of the last four games - all losses.

QUARTERBACK : The Packers may be losing games but Aaron Rodgers scored at least three times in each of the last five games. and thrown for around 300 yards in almost every game since Week 6. He's even added three rushing scores this year while the running backs do nothing to support the offense. By this point, there is no reason to expect that the Packers will be effective running the ball so Rodgers will continue to air it out. He already threw for 25 touchdowns.

RUNNING BACK : Christine Michael is expected to get his first action as a Packer but how much and how well he will be used is still speculative. The Packers offensive line hasn't done much for any back there and the Packers still have not registered a rushing score by a running back. James Starks caught a score in each of the last two games but there's little production coming out of the backfield. Ty Montgomery's impact has fallen completely off after his first two weeks with ten catches in each. His role will be further devalued with Michael playing.

WIDE RECEIVER : Jordy Nelson already scored nine touchdowns but his yardage has often lagged with four games containing fewer than 35 yards though three of those included a score. Randall Cobb has been limited in recent weeks and all three of his touchdowns were in home games. On the road he usually ends up with under 60 yards and no scores. Davante Adams swings wildly week to week, turning in two efforts with more than 130 yards and yet sandwiching in two other games with fewer than 45 yards. So far, Nelson almost always scores, Cobb shows up more in home games and Adams just randomly goes off and then turns in a bad game.

TIGHT END : Jared Cook returned after missing eight weeks with a high ankle sprain and caught six passes for 105 yards and one score in Washington. That was his best game since 2011. It was his first score since 2014 with the Rams who also acquired him in to become the receiving tight end that he never was. A new weapon is always good for the offense but in this case, it would just make forecasting players even more challenging.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: At Philly, there have only been two passing scores allowed and that included Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan. The Eagles regularly give up two or three scores to quarterbacks in road games but so far they have really been better at home. That makes this game a harder one to call since the Packers are not going to run the ball well - no back gained more than 62 yards there and the only score was back in the season opener.

Rodgers has been on a good run lately and this is a Monday night which tend to be higher scoring. Rodgers is still worth starting and could go off but so far history says that even two touchdowns there will be the most allowed by the Eagles.

Jordy Nelson should be his normal lock for a score and even end up with higher yardage than lately. Jared Cook remains too risky against a defense that has not allowed any visiting tight ends to score on them. Both Cobb and Adams are worth considering though the Eagles have never allowed two receivers to have big performances in the same game.

Gaining Fantasy Points GB 1 32 1 25 14 27
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 9 10 15 3 6 13

Philadelphia Eagles

1 CLE 29-10 10 ATL 24-15
2 @CHI 29-14 11 @SEA 15-26
3 PIT 34-3 12 GB ---
4 BYE --- 13 @CIN ---
5 @DET 23-24 14 WAS ---
6 @WAS 20-27 15 @BAL ---
7 MIN 21-10 16 NYG ---
8 @DAL 23-29 17 DAL ---
9 @NYG 23-28      
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Wentz 270,2
RB Jay Ajayi 120,2 2-10
RB Wendell Smallwood 100,1 2-20
RB Darren Sproles 30 4-30
WR Mike Wallace 5-80,1
TE Zach Ertz 6-70,1

Pregame Notes: The Eagles have dropped five of their last seven games and those two wins were the only home games. The remaining schedule only contains two more road venues and the Bengals have recently been decimated on offense. The Eagles are not yet good enough to be a major factor on the road but there is no denying how effective they have been at home. At least that keeps the people in the stands happy.

QUARTERBACK : Carson Wentz comes off a surprising two scores and 218 yards in Seattle though the second score came late in the fourth quarter of the already decided game. Wentz only passed for two touchdowns over the previous five games combined. He's been less productive in recent home games because the rushing offense has been doing most of the scoring. That should hold true again this week.

RUNNING BACK : Darren Sproles fractured his rib last week but he is expected to be able to play through the injury and it is not in a spot that can be worsened by playing. Realistically, it would be a surprise if it doesn't slow him at least a bit. Ryan Mathews sprained his MCL last week and appears more likely to sit out this week. I will revisit this later in the week and update as warranted. If Mathews sits out, Wendell Smallwood would be in line for a very nice situation against a defense that has been gutted with injuries.

If Mathews is just questionable or even a game time decision, it throws the backfield into a risky fantasy play in what could be a nice spot for the rookie to carry the load for a week.

WIDE RECEIVER : This is still one of the least productive units in the NFL. They have combined for only seven touchdowns all year and three of those went to Jordan Mathews who carries the only shred of fantasy relevancy here. Matthews has been good for half a dozen catches and 70 plus yards for the last month though he has just one score since Week 3. Dorial Green-Beckham scored last week but never ends up with more than 55 yards and was even blanked in Week 9 despite getting five targets. Nelson Agholor has been so ineffective in recent weeks that he is expected to be benched at least for this week.

TIGHT END : Zach Ertz finally scored for the first time al year but only ended with 35 yards on six catches in Seattle during Week 11. Wentz is relying on him more in recent weeks though and the offense needs receivers to step up.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers defense was great against the run to start the year but rampant injuries have left them unable to compete. The last two rushers to face them ended with over 120 yards and a score and Robert Kelley gashed them for three touchdowns. If Smallwood gets to be the primary ball carrier, he will be in for at least a good game if not a great one. If Mathews magically returns to health by Sunday, he would be a great play. The early week assumption is Smallwood takes the start but that is not written in ink quite yet.

The Packers on the road have been ridiculously bad in the secondary. Over the last three road games, eight different wideouts have scored on them. EIGHT. All three of the Titans did. Three of the five Redskins scored. The Packers have gone from being one of the better defenses to being one of the very worst in little over a month.

Mathews is a must start. Ertz as well. Green-Beckham could have a nice effort here but he remains risky. This will be the most favorable passing situation that Wentz likely has for the rest of the year.

Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 30 7 30 18 4 5
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 21 13 32 28 27 22

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