Game Predictions & Player Projections - IND vs. NYJ

David Dorey, @DMDorey

Prediction: IND 23, NYJ 20 (Line: IND by 1, O/U = 49.5)

UPDATE: Andrew Luck had a full practice on Friday and will play on Monday. T.Y. Hilton was held out on Thursday but had a full practice on Friday as well and will also play. Brandon Marshall was held out on both days but has not been ruled out and is still expected to play. I will check on him Saturday for any new developments but be aware that he missed time - likely for rest - but won't have his status determined until tomorrow.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Brandon Marshall had a full practice and is not on the injury report.

The 5-6 Colts bring their 2-3 road record to face the 3-8 Jets who are only 1-4 at home. The difference maker is getting Andrew Luck back this week. That and the Jets offense unable to generate much. This is the Monday night game which should prove that not everyone needs to get a Monday night game.

The Jets won 20-7 in Indianapolis last year.

Indianapolis Colts

1 DET 35-39 10 BYE ---
2 @DEN 20-34 11 TEN 24-17
3 SD 26-22 12 PIT 7-28
4 @JAC 27-30 13 @NYJ ---
5 CHI 29-23 14 HOU ---
6 @HOU 23-26 15 @MIN ---
7 @TEN 34-26 16 @OAK ---
8 KC 14-30 17 JAC ---
9 @GB 31-26      
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 260,2
RB Frank Gore 50 3-30
WR Phillip Dorsett 3-30
WR T.Y. Hilton 6-70,1
WR Donte Moncrief 5-50,1
TE Jack Doyle 2-20
PK Adam Vinatieri 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts never had a chance last week and apparently there was a reason that Scott Tolzien spent years on the bench without a start. The loss drops the Colts to only 5-6 but that still means they are only one game out of first place in the AFC South. Next week when the Texans visit is more important than this week and the Colts have already swept the Titans.

QUARTERBACK : Andrew Luck missed last week with a concussion but is expected to be cleared for this game. He gets the extra day to heal since it is a Monday night matchup. Luck has thrown for a score in every game this year and usually remains well above 250 yards.

RUNNING BACK : Frank Gore comes off his worst game of the year when he only ran for 28 yards on 15 carries against the Steelers but no one respected the pass with Luck out. Gore rarely gains more than 60 yards as a rusher and scores only against the softer defenses. Gore has two receiving touchdowns though and has recent been used more as a receiver.

WIDE RECEIVER : Donte Moncrief still managed a score with Tolzien as the quarterback and that makes four straight weeks with a touchdown catch. He hasn't totaled more than 65 yards in any game but is reliable for that one touchdown catch. T.Y. Hilton was held to only 54 yards last week but has been worth a touchdown or at least 80 yards in nearly every start with Luck there. Philip Dorsett remains a minor factor in the passing offense.

Hilton injured his back on Thanksgiving but expects to play on Monday. I will project for a healthy Hilton and update if that changes later in the week.

TIGHT END : The tight ends have been much less productive in recent weeks though Dwayne Allen managed five catches for 49 yards last Thursday. No tight end has scored since Week 7 and the yardage has really declined since mid-season.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jets defense hasn't been nearly as good for 2016 though they have been better when at home. Luck should manage at least two scores here with a chance for three since the Jets have not faced many top quarterbacks and been victimized whenever they have. The rush defense at home has been stellar with only one rushing score allowed and never more than 64 rushing yards. That's already starting to test the upper limit of what Gore can do anyway.

The biggest weakness has been in the secondary and even Revis Island is far more accommodating this year. He should match on Hilton but that doesn't mean as much as it once did. Moncrief is a good bet to get that fifth straight touchdown game and Hilton should manage at least good yardage with a chance at a score. The tight ends do not offer any reliable advantage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 7 19 18 5 10 25
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 12 16 20 13 25 32

New York Jets

1 CIN 22-23 10 LA 6-9
2 @BUF 37-31 11 BYE ---
3 @KC 3-24 12 NE 17-22
4 SEA 17-27 13 IND ---
5 @PIT 13-31 14 @SF ---
6 @ARI 3-28 15 MIA ---
7 BAL 24-16 16 @NE ---
8 @CLE 31-28 17 BUF ---
9 @MIA 23-27      
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 80,1 10
RB Bilal Powell 30 3-20
WR Robby Anderson 4-50
WR Quincy Enunwa 5-80,1
WR Marquess Wilson 5-70,1
PK Chandler Catanzaro 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Three game losing streak and the offense looks irreparably broken while the Defense varies between good and "where'd they go?" By this point, HC Todd Bowles and OC Chan Gailey are thinking more about jobs than championships. The opposing defenses are less challenging for the remained of the year but there's so little of the offense that still works that it doesn't really matter.

QUARTERBACK : Todd Bowles might as well just wear a shirt to every press conference that reads "yes, he is still starting." Ryan Fitzpatrick comes off a two score game against the Patriots but no one thought they would come back to win including the Jets. Fitzpatrick on the road hasn't been worth more than one score and around 230 passing yards all year.

RUNNING BACK : Despite the woes of the passing offense, Matt Forte has offered at least moderate yardage every week and scored in three of the last five weeks. He was held to only 50 total yards by the Patriots but was worth around 100 total yards every week back to Week 7 and scored five times over a three weeks span at midseason. Bilal Powell offers relief work and can catch up to seven passes per game but has been more likely to only turn in three or less in most games. Forte doesn't do much as a receiver and that limits him greatly when facing a top defense.

WIDE RECEIVER : Quincy Enunwa roared back to life with 109 yards and a score last week but he was held to only a single catch the two previous games. His four receiving touchdowns pace the team but his weekly yardage varies significantly. Brandon Marshall scored in the loss to the Patriots for his first end zone trip since back in Week 5. He still only ended with 67 yards on six catches and hasn't been reliable for anything more than that moderate yardage. Robby Anderson is still worth around 30 to 40 yards in most weeks but has yet to score.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: There are only three fantasy plays in any Jets game. First can Forte run? the Colts are weak against the run and more so in road games. Forte is a good start with a very nice chance of a touchdown.

Marshall and Enunwa are the only others and even they have been very mediocre in recent weeks. CB Vontae Davis may be out or limited in this game which benefits Brandon Marshall significantly. He at least has a chance of a score and moderate yardage and Enunwa makes for a low end start mostly from his risk of having a bad game despite the decent matchup. Have to like one passing score (and possibly two) and that should end up with a wideout. I'll credit Marshall with hopefully a better matchup but it could end up with Enunwa just as easily.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 28 12 12 32 20 32
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 31 24 24 26 31 26

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