Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs. DET

David Dorey, @DMDorey

Prediction: GB 31, DET 24 (Line: GB by 3, O/U = 47)

UPDATE: Theo Riddick is out. Randall Cobb is a game time decision and has not practiced. I am removing him from the projections even though he has not officially been called out.

This is one of the big games of the weekend. Winner takes the NFC North and the loser probably sits home in January if the Skins beat the visiting Giants who will be resting players in a meaningless game. The Packers won 34-27 when the Eagles visited in Week 3. The Packers are on a five game winning streak but are only 3-4 on the road. The Lions have lost their last two but are 6-1 at home. This is the late game on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers

1 @JAC 27-23 10 @TEN 25-47
2 @MIN 14-17 11 @WAS 24-42
3 DET 34-27 12 @PHI 27-13
4 BYE --- 13 HOU 21-13
5 NYG 23-16 14 SEA 38-10
6 DAL 16-30 15 @CHI 30-27
7 CHI 26-10 16 MIN 38-25
8 @ATL 32-33 17 @DET ---
9 IND 26-31      
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 280,4
RB Christine Michael 30
RB Ty Montgomery 50 4-30
WR Davante Adams 4-50,1
WR Jordy Nelson 7-100,2
TE Jared Cook 5-60,1
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers are finishing the year on a furious note and could be peaking at the right time - so long as they win this game. The defense stepped up in the last month while the offense is churning out the 30+ point games. Aaron Rodgers is red hot and just in time for all the fantasy playoffs.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers reclaimed his title as the highest scoring fantasy quarterback and already threw for four scores and 205 yards in the first meeting. He was on a eight game streak with multiple touchdowns until the cold game in Chicago but he bounced back with four scores and 347 yards last week against the Vikings.

RUNNING BACK : Eddie Lacy rushed for 103 yards on 17 carries in the first meeting with the Lions. Since then Ty Montgomery has taken over and scored three times over the last three games. Montgomery ran for a season best 162 yards and one score in the most recent road game in Chicago. Christine Michael offers support but Montgomery is doing all the damage.

WIDE RECEIVER : Jordy Nelson leads the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns and ended with 101 yards and two scores on six catches in the previous meeting with the Lions. Davante Adams scored as well but was limited to only 23 yards on two catches. Randall Cobb only had one catch and may not play this week. He was scratched from the Vikings tilt with a sprained ankle. I will hold him out and add him later if warranted but he has been a distant #3 wideout this year.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Lions are good against the run and have not allowed a 100 yard rusher in Detroit. Montgomery should end up with only moderate yardage and no score.

Rodgers already scored four times on them in Week 3 and the Lions secondary is their weak point. Their ranking is only as good as it is because they have faced so many weak passing teams - PHI, LA, JAC, MIN, CHI and HOU. Rodgers and Nelson are always must start players and no different this week. Adams deserves consideration as well in what should be a shootout. This should be similar to Week 3 only with more yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 1 29 1 27 13 15
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 22 8 15 30 9 7

Detroit Lions

1 @IND 39-35 10 BYE ---
2 TEN 15-16 11 JAC 26-19
3 @GB 27-34 12 MIN 16-13
4 @CHI 14-17 13 @NO 28-13
5 PHI 24-23 14 CHI 20-17
6 LA 31-28 15 @NYG 6-17
7 WAS 20-17 16 @DAL 21-42
8 @HOU 13-20 17 GB ---
9 @MIN 22-16      
News | Stats | Roster
DET vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 10 310,3
RB Dwayne Washington 30 1-10
RB Zach Zenner 40 1-10
WR Anquan Boldin 3-40,1
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 4-60
WR Golden Tate 6-100,1
TE Eric Ebron 6-80,1
PK Matt Prater 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The schedule was no friend with road games against the Giants and Cowboys and the bulk of the Lions wins have come against below average teams. Matt Stafford has been the central player in the offense that still has no real rushing game and a passing effort that has cooled as the season progressed. This week is at home but the Packers are peaking and the Lions are just trying to avoid any further declines since there have been no passing scores in the last two weeks.

QUARTERBACK : Matt Stafford turned in a great year but most of his success was throwing 18 touchdowns over the first nine weeks but only five scores over the last six weeks. Stafford is still good for around 250 yards in most games but is just not throwing touchdowns as much. Stafford passed for 385 yards and three scores in Green Bay in his best game of the year.

RUNNING BACK : Oddly Zach Zenner rushed for 67 yards and two scores in Dallas last week but this has been one of the worst rushing offenses all year. That was only the third game that featured a Lions rushing touchdown. In Week three Dwayne Washington ran for 38 yards on ten carries and Theo Riddick rushed for nine yards and added seven receptions for 39 yards. Riddick missed last week with a wrist injury and is no lock to play here.

WIDE RECEIVER : Week 3 was when Marvin Jones caught six passes for 205 yards and two scores in what would be his biggest and last good game. Jones has declined to where he only gets around three or four shorter catches every week and has not scored since Week 6. Golden Tate picked up the pace once Jones went cold but only had 40 yards on four catches in Week 3. Tate is good for 60 yards per game and had three 100 yard efforts on the year.

TIGHT END : Eric Ebron caught five passes for 69 yards in the first meeting and has been reliable for only around 40 yards in most recent games..

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Forget about the rushing offense. This should be another shootout and the Packers have allowed multiple touchdowns to almost every road opponent. The Packers have allowed at least 280 passing yards in all but road game. Stafford is a solid start again this week and should end up north of 300 yards with at least two or three scores.

Tate and Ebron are must starts this week and even Boldin or Jones could be considered as a low end flex.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 14 25 13 25 10 21
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 31 10 32 21 22 15

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