Game Predictions & Player Projections - NYG vs. GB

David Dorey, @DMDorey
WILDCARD WEEK DET at SEA (SAT-8:15 PM ET) MIA at PIT (SUN-1:05 PM ET)
UPDATED NYG at GB (SUN-4:40 PM ET) OAK at HOU (SAT 4:35 PM ET)

Prediction: NYG 17, GB 27 (Line: GB by 4, O/U = 44)

UPDATE: Randall Cobb has been able to have limited practices and appears likely to play at least some role this week. He is still not a strong start and hasn't been that productive lately even when heathly. It does make Geronimo Allison much less atttractive this week.

The Giants was tied for the second best record in the NFC but only ended up with this wildcard game that may be tougher than if they had to go to Seattle. The Giants are only 4-4 on the road and the Packers were 6-2 at home with a six game winning streak. The Packers seem to be peaking at just the right time while the Giants have been winning most games by small margins thanks mostly to their defense holding the score down.

This is the second meeting of these teams. The Packers won 23-16 in Green Bay during Week 5. This will be a cold game with temperatures in the teens but clear skies.

New York Giants

1 @DAL 20-19 10 CIN 21-20
2 NO 16-13 11 CHI 22-16
3 WAS 27-29 12 @CLE 27-13
4 @MIN 10-24 13 @PIT 14-24
5 @GB 16-23 14 DAL 10-7
6 BAL 27-23 15 DET 17-6
7 @LA 17-10 16 @PHI 19-24
8 BYE --- 17 @WAS 19-10
9 PHI 28-23      
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 200,1
RB Rashad Jennings 50 3-20
RB Paul Perkins 60 2-10
WR Odell Beckham Jr 4-50
WR Victor Cruz 5-50
WR Sterling Shepard 4-70,1
TE Will Tye 3-30
PK Robbie Gould 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: Only the Rams, 49ers and Bears scored fewer points in the NFC than the Giants. But only the Patriots allowed fewer points than the Giants. It all comes down to the defense holding their opponent low enough that the Giants offense can score just enough to win. Defense wins championships though and that makes the Giants dangerous.

QUARTERBACK : Eli Manning passed for 199 yards and one score in the Week 5 meeting in Green Bay. He threw for more than 201 yards only once in the most recent five games. Even in the win in Washington last week he only passed for 180 yards and no touchdowns. He's never been reliable for more than a couple of scores and usually only when facing a weak secondary.

RUNNING BACK : This is one of the weakest rushing offenses in the NFL and all combined only managed to have a runner top 100 yards once all year. They have only ran in six touchdowns in total and back in Week 5, the Giants only had a total of 14 carries for 42 yards in Green Bay. Rashad Jennings and Paul Perkins are splitting the workload in two and that prevents either from being a good fantasy play.

WIDE RECEIVER : Odell Beckham ended with five receptions for 56 yards and a score in Green Bay. He totaled 11 touchdowns this year and topped 100 yards four times. More encouraging is that Beckham tends towards having his better games when on the road. Sterling Shepard was held to only two catches for 14 yards in the first meeting but has scored six times over the last nine games. He almost never breaks 50 yards but scores in most games.

Victor Cruz failed to catch a pass in Week 6 and has been mostly a nonfactor every week.

TIGHT END : Will Tye caught two passes for 37 yards in Week 5. That was one of his better games.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: So what is changed between Week 5 and now? For the Giants - not a lot. They lost Shane Vereen but will have Rashad Jennings for this matchup unlike previously. That may not be any advantage and the Packers at home have been outstanding against the run. There is no reason to expect any appreciable yardage or even a score from the backfield.

The Packers already held Manning to 199 yards and one score but he should improve on those stats. The problem is more about Manning than the quality of the defense since he has been less effective away from new York. He's reliable for moderate to good yardage here with at least one but not more than two touchdowns.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 24 24 6 24 27 10
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 31 5 32 20 22 14

Green Bay Packers

1 @JAC 27-23 10 @TEN 25-47
2 @MIN 14-17 11 @WAS 24-42
3 DET 34-27 12 @PHI 27-13
4 BYE --- 13 HOU 21-13
5 NYG 23-16 14 SEA 38-10
6 DAL 16-30 15 @CHI 30-27
7 CHI 26-10 16 MIN 38-25
8 @ATL 32-33 17 @DET 31-24
9 IND 26-31      
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 310,2
RB Aaron Ripkowski 10,1
RB Christine Michael 20
RB Ty Montgomery 40 3-40
WR Davante Adams 5-80,1
WR Geronimo Allison 2-30
WR Randall Cobb 3-40
WR Jordy Nelson 6-60,1 -
TE Jared Cook 4-60
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers had almost been given up for lost when they were 4-6 but Aaron Rodgers rallied the troops and they haven't lost since. This will be an interesting test since the Packers have been much better on both sides of the ball for the last month and a half and the offense scored over 30 points in each of the last four games.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers passed for 259 yards and two scores in the first meeting with the Giants. He's been on fire down the stretch and half of his games produced at least three passing touchdowns. Even against the Vikings defense that held him to only one score and 213 yards in Week 2, Rodgers just threw for 347 yards and four scores. He's been central to the winning streak and is involving new receivers along the way.

RUNNING BACK : Back in Week 5, Eddie Lacy rushed for 81 yards on 11 carries but the rushing offense has become a messy committee. Ty Montgomery is the safest bet but he's been held under 50 rushing yards in nearly every game and scores in only two contests. Even his role as a receiver has lessened to only two or three catches per game. Christine Michael is never more than four or five carries. The best back last week was the fullback Aaron Ripkowski who ran for 61 yards and scored on one of his two short receptions. All combined this unit only ran in six touchdowns this season.

WIDE RECEIVER : In the first meeting, Davante Adams caught five passes for 85 yards and one score. He totaled 12 touchdowns in the regular season and scored in six of eight home games. He's been held below 50 yards for the last three weeks but scored three times over that span. Jordy Nelson ended with four catches for 38 yards and one score in the first meeting and and his 14 receiving touchdowns pace the NFL. Randall Cobb turned in a season high 108 yards on nine catches in Week 5 but has been much less productive since and missed the last two games with an ankle injury. I will assume that he cannot play and update if that changes.

Geronimo Allison covered for Cobb with good success. He posted four catches for 66 yards in Week 19 versus the Vikings and then four receptions for 91 yards and a score last week in Detroit.

TIGHT END : Jared Cook has been a nonfactor in all but two road games. He's never gained more than 37 yards in any home venue and scored just once all year when he was on the road in Washington.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: CB Janoris Jenkins should be healthier this week after missing Week 16 with a back injury and then returning last week. Jenkins caught both interceptions thrown by Aaron Rodgers. Jenkins naturally matches on Nelson but they will move the wideouts around constantly in part to find better matchups.

The Giants have never allowed more than two passing scores in any game though the yardage has been higher on the road where almost all games end with 260+ passing yards given up. Rodgers should be solid for that higher yardage and two scores this time and he could certainly become the first to pass for three scores on them. Rodgers has never shown any problems throwing when it is merely cold.

Both Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson scored in the last meeting and the pair is significantly more likely to score than any other receivers. Allison or even Cobb will figure in as well but Adams and Nelson are dominating.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 1 26 1 26 14 16
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 2 4 7 21 25 15
WILDCARD WEEK DET at SEA (SAT-8:15 PM ET) MIA at PIT (SUN-1:05 PM ET)
UPDATED NYG at GB (SUN-4:40 PM ET) OAK at HOU (SAT 4:35 PM ET)

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