Better Than Average (BTA) was developed to show which players were truly better than their peers when the advantage of the schedule was removed. This is a true 1:1 measurement because it only considers how well players did against all others who faced a particular defense. It counts up three occurrences:
“Top 8” – When a RB produced one of the top 8 game performances for fantasy points allowed by a defense.
“Top 4” – When a RB scored in the top 4 game performances for fantasy points allowed by a defense.
“#1” – Who had the best fantasy game against a defense over the past year. There could only by 32 such events since each defense can only allow one “best game”.
BTA – Simply adding up the 1, 4 and 8 values for a numerical expression of how effective a running back truly was last year against all other players in his position. The strength of schedule doesn’t matter. Only what a player produced against all other players in that position against that defense. It is a measurement of player ability against the others in his position.
|Most #1 Games|
The top three players that had four instances of scoring the most that a certain defense allowed will no doubt be the first three drafted this summer.
Running backs are all about offering consistent stats each week and we saw a newer batch of top backs with Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles out for the year. The decline in top backs was pretty dramatic – after the top six or seven there were very few real difference makers and even those teams that employed a true primary back could not produce that many #1 performances against a defense. This all says that running backs are going to be hot in the first round of fantasy drafts and then likely be lesser valued for many rounds.
|Running Backs||BTA||#1||Top 4||Top 8|