Better Than Average (BTA) Rankings: Running Backs

Better Than Average (BTA) Rankings: Running Backs

Statistical Analysis

Better Than Average (BTA) Rankings: Running Backs

Better Than Average (BTA) was developed to show which players were truly better than their peers when the advantage of the schedule was removed. This is a true 1:1 measurement because it only considers how well players did against all others who faced a particular defense. It counts up three occurrences:

Top 8” – When a RB produced one of the top 8 game performances for fantasy points allowed by a defense.

Top 4” – When a RB scored in the top 4 game performances for fantasy points allowed by a defense.

#1” – Who had the best fantasy game against a defense over the past year. There could only by 32 such events since each defense can only allow one “best game”.

BTA – Simply adding up the 1, 4 and 8 values for a numerical expression of how effective a running back truly was last year against all other players in his position. The strength of schedule doesn’t matter. Only what a player produced against all other players in that position against that defense. It is a measurement of player ability against the others in his position.

Most #1 Games
David Johnson 4
Ezekiel Elliott 4
Le’Veon Bell 4
Devonta Freeman 3
LeSean McCoy 2
Melvin Gordon 2
Theo Riddick 2

The top three players that had four instances of scoring the most that a certain defense allowed will no doubt be the first three drafted this summer.

Running backs are all about offering consistent stats each week and we saw a newer batch of top backs with Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles out for the year.  The decline in top backs was pretty dramatic – after the top  six or seven there were very few real difference makers and  even those teams that employed a true primary back could not produce that many #1 performances against a defense. This all says that running backs are going to be hot in the first round of fantasy drafts and then likely be lesser valued for many rounds.

Running Backs BTA #1 Top 4 Top 8
David Johnson 28 4 9 15
Ezekiel Elliott 24 4 7 13
Le’Veon Bell 22 4 8 10
LeSean McCoy 20 2 7 11
Devonta Freeman 18 3 7 8
DeMarco Murray 18 1 6 11
Melvin Gordon 14 2 4 8
Mark Ingram 12 1 4 7
Isaiah Crowell 11 0 3 8
Carlos Hyde 11 0 4 7
LeGarrette Blount 10 0 3 7
Jordan Howard 9 0 3 6
Theo Riddick 9 2 3 4
Lamar Miller 9 1 1 7
Frank Gore 9 0 2 7
Bilal Powell 9 1 3 5
Tevin Coleman 8 0 3 5
Ty Montgomery 8 1 3 4
Jay Ajayi 8 0 4 4
Matt Forte 8 1 3 4
Latavius Murray 8 1 2 5
Terrance West 7 1 2 4
Spencer Ware 7 1 2 4
Todd Gurley 6 0 2 4
Jerick McKinnon 6 0 3 3
Ryan Mathews 6 0 2 4
DeAngelo Williams 6 0 3 3
Jonathan Stewart 5 0 1 4
Jeremy Hill 5 0 2 3
Robert Kelley 5 1 2 2
C.J. Anderson 4 1 1 2
Devontae Booker 4 0 1 3
Tim Hightower 4 0 1 3
Darren Sproles 4 0 0 4
Matt Jones 4 0 1 3

 

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