Strength of schedule swings

Strength of schedule swings

Strength of schedule swings

Knowing that a player has a bad or good schedule is useful information. But it is really incomplete without knowing what they faced last year. By reviewing the strength of schedule from the previous year matched against their actual performance helps predict what will happen for this year. Bottom line, same schedule strength suggest a similar outcome (assuming no other notable changes to team dynamics, coaching, personnel, etc.). Players who excelled against a bad schedule and now face a much easier slate are where values in drafts can be found. Most people tend to draft as if last year repeats.

This measurement uses the actual statistics allowed by the home and away versions of every defense against quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. Tight ends are excluded since their usage has far too much variation. It considers what each venue allowed on average against the three positions. The defenses are arrayed against points allowed and then adjusted for how far from the midpoint they were. That shows is a defense was an advantage or disadvantage to face against the average.

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