Don't be a slave to ADP

Don't be a slave to ADP

Draft Strategy

Don't be a slave to ADP

Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Are you a slave to ADP? What, you thought this was going to be some sort of gutter talk? No, it’s about showing that it’s ok to reach a round for players. The absolute worst feeling in a draft is when you have a target, want to draft him, check ADP, and then decide to pass on him because you’ll get him next round – but no, he ends up getting selected before your next pick. That’s what happens when you are a slave to ADP. ADP is a tool that can be helpful. With it, you know approximately when a player is being selected in drafts and that can help you to determine if you feel he’s a value or not. The thing to keep in mind is that ADP isn’t concrete. Players go earlier and later than their ADP ranking. I combine tiers with ADP to help me decide if I think I can wait on a player. That’s where I feel you get the best value with ADP. If you truly want to target one player then you are playing with fire if you rely solely on it. If you want a guy, and you truly believe he will be a top option at his position then don’t be afraid to jump a round or two early to get him.

Let’s say that you are projecting Ameer Abdullah to be a top-3 RB. Does that mean you take him in the first round? No, it doesn’t. It does mean that drafting him in round 4 when his ADP is in the middle of round 6 is fine. Yes, people will say you reached … let them. At least you will have gotten your guy! A few years ago, I was drafting towards the end of the first round and I had Matt Forte ranked as one of the top 3 to 5 players at RB but his ADP had him going late in round 2. Picking late in round 1 meant that I had an early round 2 pick. What did I do? Instead of drafting Forte in round 1 I drafted another RB knowing I’d get Forte with my next pick. Guess what, Forte didn’t make it to my next pick because he was taken in round 1. I got cute trying to eek out as much value as I could and in the end, I lost out on my guy.

Yes, the following charts are a cherry picker’s paradise. They show what round you could have reached for the player in and still returned great value on them. Again I have to emphasize, if you have a bunch of players in the same tier and don’t need to reach, then don’t. However, if you have a guy you love, don’t get caught being cute and missing out on him. I’m sure many of you will have stories about how you missed out on some of these players because you were a slave to ADP.

2014

Round Player ADP
Average Pick
End of Season
Overall Ranking
End of Season
Positional Ranking
1 Antonio Brown 23.86 2 1
2 T.Y. Hilton 58.79 32 10
3 Jeremy Maclin 70.67 25 8
4 Emmanuel Sanders 70.86 20 6
5 Joique Bell 71.85 59 11
6 Golden Tate 90.43 36 12
7 Lamar Miller 101.32 52 9
8 Jeremy Hill 127.76 55 10
9 Mark Ingram 131.02 74 17
10 Delanie Walker 160.90 88 7
11 Chris Ivory 163.85 113 24
12 Odell Beckham Jr. 165.15 31 9

2015

Round Player ADP
Average Pick
End of Season
Overall Ranking
End of Season
Positional Ranking
1 Lamar Miller 33.42 44 5
2 Jarvis Landry 58.40 26 8
3 Brandon Marshall 62.86 8 3
4 Chris Ivory 85.69 64 10
5 Larry Fitzgerald 92.17 23 7
6 Eric Decker 109.72 38 13
7 Duke Johnson 120.14 106 24
8 David Johnson 140.99 55 8
9 Darren Sproles 141.98 111 25
10 Michael Crabtree 153.61 51 17
11 Doug Baldwin 164.41 29 10
12 Richard Rodgers 173.37 119 11

2016

Round Player ADP
Average Pick
End of Season
Overall Ranking
End of Season
Positional Ranking
1 LeSean McCoy 31.39 12 4
2 Doug Baldwin 49.79 22 6
3 DeMarco Murray 51.41 14 5
4 Melvin Gordon 68.63 32 7
5 Michael Crabtree 89.82 38 10
6 Frank Gore 92.38 53 11
7 Jay Ajayi 105.94 55 13
8 Stefon Diggs 106.01 70 26
9 Tevin Coleman 122.02 92 22
10 Jason Witten 125.88 113 9
11 Davante Adams 138.86 41 12
12 Cole Beasley 146.25 82 32

Remember, this exercise is to illustrate that there isn’t anything wrong with reaching a round, or two, for a player that you really love. So what if people start to whisper behind your back. Sometimes you just have to go and get your guy!

Just for fun, I thought I’d put together a round-by-round list as my 2017 Reach Team!

Round Player ADP
Average Pick*
1 Amari Cooper 16.77
2 Keenan Allen 40.28
3 Stefon Diggs 59.80
4 Ameer Abdullah 66.92
5 Danny Woodhead 86.98
6 Pierre Garcon 97.92
7 Tyrell Williams 105.43
8 Duke Johnson 118.99
9 Marvin Jones 133.30
10 Austin Hooper 138.36
11 Jamal Williams 151.18
12 Marlon Mack 164.34

* As of August 11.

So there it is my 2017 Reach Team. No, there are no QBs worth reaching for! If you are tempted in your draft to reach a round for your QB I suggest you go back and read Dissecting QB Value in Fantasy Football.

Remember, ADP has its place, just don’t be a slave to it is all. What are you waiting for? If you don’t go and get that reach player someone else is going to beat you to it. Happy drafting!

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