Sleepers and Value Plays (Updated): Quarterbacks

Sleepers and Value Plays (Updated): Quarterbacks

Sleepers

Sleepers and Value Plays (Updated): Quarterbacks

A sleeper is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him.  Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com  using only real drafts conducted after August 15.

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will happen and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green check means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red “X” signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.

(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Average draft order – value plays

ADP Value Player Team Analysis
1 Aaron Rodgers GBP No lower risk or higher ceiling.
2 Tom Brady NEP This seems to pay too much homage to the Super Bowl. Better situation than 2016 but they won’t all be ATL. Bit high for me.
3 Drew Brees NOS Has always been worth this much.
4 Matt Ryan ATL Great spot if not higher. Was #3 last year.
5   Russell Wilson SEA Healthy again means more running but O-line still bad. Mature offense. Has been Top 10 lock. Little high.
6 Andrew Luck IND  When healthy  – absolutely. Cannot be sure he is healthy yet. Why risk with other options?
7 Derek Carr OAK Talented but another bad schedule this year. And just two WRs matter so far.
8 Jameis Winston TBB Love the upside here. Better offense, easy schedule. At worst should be rock solid QB1 but could end up Top 5.
9 Marcus Mariota TEN  TEN runs too well to get Mariota enough volume to reach this. Still has not reached 3,500 pass yards.
10 Cam Newton CAR Health is a concern but weapons and schedule are not. Mature offense. Stage set for rebound … if healthy. Said to be good to go for Week 1.
11 Kirk Cousins WAS  WAS won’t invest but he was #5 and #9 last two years. Nice buy here. Drops with new WRs but could be just as good.
12 Dak Prescott DAL He was actually #9 as a rookie and should be one year better. Nice back-up to be sure. Missing Elliott for any amount of time makes Dak more important.

Sleepers and over-valued players

ADP Value Player Team Analysis
13 Ben Roethlisberger PIT Solid pick but has injury issues so get another soon. Martavis Bryant’s return makes this feel better.
14 Matthew Stafford DET Worse schedule but always a solid back-up that can start in good spots. Never rushes but consistent with pass yards.
15 Philip Rivers LAC Sure, Bolts lose receivers almost weekly but Rivers was Top 10 for last 4 years. Everyone healthy for now… wait.. where’s Mike Williams? Moving is a concern but Rivers has been so consistently good no matter.
16 Carson Wentz PHI Tough schedule may hurt but this deep Wentz offers major upside as talented second-year player with improved receivers. This cheap says he only has to fill a bye week but could surprise.
17 Eli Manning NYG Questionable rush offense (Part XII) but adding Brandon Marshall to Odell Beckham won’t hurt. Sterling Shepard’s ankle, Beckham’s ankle and Marshall’s shoulder  supposed to be okay so that’s 3 very nice WR. I’d take him several spots earlier and should offer some reliable starts.
18 Andy Dalton CIN Picking Dalton as a back-up accepts moderate production in exchange for track record. Won’t kill you, won’t make a difference either.
19 Tyrod Taylor BUF Rebuilding year and Taylor better show up  or someone else will in 2018.  Better rusher than passer which helps in fantasy but less so in “job keeping”.
20 Carson Palmer ARI There is no problem taking him this late but he and his receivers are aging. Injury is a concern. Slowed down last year.
21 Sam Bradford MIN He’s likely to pass even better this year but he never runs and MIN likes those low scoring games.
22 Joe Flacco BAL Another solid back-up type but disc problem in back very concerning. Why risk anything on a mediocre back-up?
23 Jay Cutler MIA Likely will have to air it out in many games. If he lasts…
24 Blake Bortles JAC No lock to be the starter is a very bad sign.

 

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