Figures, flukes and feelings: Week 11

Figures, flukes and feelings: Week 11

Statistical Analysis

Figures, flukes and feelings: Week 11

It was a balanced week of football. We saw several comebacks, multiple blowouts, a few tight games, an overtime win by a kicker against his former employer … and another embarrassing loss for the New York Giants.

Looking ahead, at least gamers won’t have too be overly concerned with bye replacements in Week 11. The Jets, Colts, Panthers and 49ers are on vacation — hardly a collective wealth of fantasy assets.

Figures

(Tim Heitman, USA TODAY Sports)

10 consecutive games allowing a TD: This is the collective scoring streak for tight ends against the Giants after San Francisco’s Garrett Celek found the end zone in Week 10. This dates back to the end of the 2016 season.

Takeaway: This is great news for Travis Kelce owners. The remaining fantasy slate for the Giants: Washington, Oakland, Dallas, Philly, Arizona. Conceivably, every game offers someone of at least flex value — even Arizona’s Jermaine Gresham. Granted, you’d need a great deal of guts to make that move in the championship round.

11 years: The last time New Orleans had two 100-yard rushers in the same game. Sunday, Mark Ingram rushed for 131 and a trio of scores, while Alvin Kamara chipped in 106 yards of his own. The 2006 Saints were the last incarnation to accomplish this feat, when Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush went for 108 and 126, respectively.

Takeaway: It was Kamara’s first NFL 100-yard game and Ingram’s third of the season. The Saints started the year 0-2, when Ingram rushed a combined 14 times. He has had no fewer than 14 totes in all seven games of the winning streak. In that stretch, Kamara has been dynamic as a dual-way threat. He really didn’t take off until Week 4, though he has been extremely efficient for fantasy purposes. The true takeaway is Sean Payton has converted this pass-happy offense into a ground-n-pound that supports a pair of top-10 fantasy backs. We knew this weeks ago, but Sunday was a reminder of how explosive both players can be without cannibalizing each other’s success. Gamers shouldn’t be afraid to start either or both in any matchup, regardless of the scoring system.

Also see: Week 10 fantasy recap

52-92-0: Dating back to the 2015 season with Minnesota, in his last three games, including a playoff contests, Adrian Peterson has averaged 1.7 yards per carry vs. the Seattle Seahawks.

Takeaway: This is impressively bad, although it also was a recipe for failure. The Cardinals’ offensive line is down its two best players, and Carson Palmer obviously isn’t available. It was easy for Seattle to key on stopping All Day in Week 10, and luckily for fantasy gamers, Week 17 is the next time these teams meet.

4,262 yards, 23 TDs: Drew Brees is on pace for the second-lowest, single-season yardage total since joining the Saints in 2006. The 23 extrapolated touchdown tosses would mark his lowest since joining the club and the second-fewest of his entire career in a full season

Takeaway: These numbers are decent for most any other quarterback. Even at 38, Brees is still capable of slinging it with the best of them. The system lacks playmakers in the passing game, and Sean Payton has transitioned the offense into being a ground-heavy attack. Maybe having a bigger impact, the defense has been brilliant in 2017 under new DC Dennis Allen.

Flukes

(David Banks, USA TODAY Sports)

Atlanta Falcons defensive end Adrian Clayborn posted six (6!!!) sacks of Dak Prescott. Left tackle Tyron Smith didn’t dress, and his replacement, Chaz Green, was beaten like a drum for five of the sacks. He was replaced by Byron Bell, who also game up a Prescott takedown.

Takeaway: Two-fold: Clayborn won’t face the likes of a Chaz Green every week. The veteran pass rusher had 7.5 sacks in the two seasons prior to 2017. From his side, it was a fluke performance. From Dallas’ perspective, all I can say is they best hope Smith is able to go in Week 11 vs. Philly, or Dak running for his life will be the new norm.

Keep up with player news

9.8 – 5.1 = awful: The difference in fantasy points per game from Chicago Bears rookie Tarik Cohen‘s first four games to his last five. 

Takeaway: If video killed the radio star, Mitchell Trubisky has offed Cohen’s glow. It isn’t coincidental the switch to the rookie quarterback has direly impacted the rookie runner’s receiving role. Trubisky doesn’t go through his progresses has efficiently as Glennon, and the overall playcalling has changed. The major distinction has been a drop-off in targets for Cohen. He averaged 7.3 per contest with Glennon and has seen this number fall to 2.4 a game with Trubisky under center. The electric runner has just one catch in each of the five Trubisky starts, and his yards-per-carry average has dropped from 6.03 to 1.92. This is a fluke from the reality Cohen isn’t this bad. It goes to show how much an offense can change with a rookie taking over. The playbook narrows, and defenses don’t play as honestly near the line — and it’s not like we’re talking about going from Tom Brady to a rookie.

Feelings

(Jay Biggerstaff, USA TODAY Sports)

A tall order: Do you believe in the Los Angeles Rams? One’s faith in this team will be put to the test over the next month and a half. The schedule: at Minnesota, vs. New Orleans, at Arizona, vs. Philadelphia, at Seattle, at Tennessee. All of those teams, minus the Cards, could be playoff bound. It may be a rocky close to the season for several of LA’s surprise fantasy weapons.

Here’s a thought: Why does anyone believe Teddy Bridgewater is a better option than Case Keenum? Prior to Keenum’s four-TD Week 10 showing, reports surfaced saying the Vikings coaches were basically looking for any reason to turn over the keys to Bridgewater. The former University of Houston star shut them up. It would be one of the dumbest moves, regardless of how many TDs Keenum tosses from one week to the next, because the team has rallied around the veteran. Minnesota has to lose several consecutive games before there is even reason to consider Bridgewater.

I want to believe: Jamaal Williams will shine in Week 11 with a full week of practice reps and the proper preparation … but it’s against the Ravens. Only three of the last 141 carries facing Baltimore have found the end zone. Stash him away in the event he takes over the primary chores for the foreseeable future. It looks like Aaron Jones has a sprained knee, and Ty Montgomery’s ribs could keep him out a few contests, depending on pain tolerance and the team’s willingness to risk it again.

Also see: Week 10 Tunnel Vision

It sure seems like: The Redskins would have been wise to trade Terrelle Pryor before the deadline. Reports surfaced this week saying the Browns were looking to reacquire the former quarterback. He’s on a one-year deal, and he has a whopping 31 receiving yards in the last month Getting literally anything from Cleveland would have been worth it from Washington’s perspective. Advice: If you happen to be a converted WR coming off of a career year and have an NFL team offering a four-year, $32M deal … tell Drew Rosenhaus you will take it. Just sayin’…

I feel: The Jacksonville Jaguars could have been a touch more balanced with their offensive playcalling in Week 10. In a tight game, Leonard Fournette ran only 17 times. Blake Bortles put up 51 attempts. He threw 11 straight passes at one point in the third, and Bortles was on the mark, but then a 2-for-13 stretch in the fourth was lowlighted by two interceptions. Jacksonville didn’t deserve it, but a win cures many ailments, including poor playcalling.

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