Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Receivers with PPR

David Dorey, @DMDorey
2016 Receiving Fantasy Points
Allowed Per Game
20 Best
Matchups
20 Worst
Matchups
GB 51.5 MIN 35.8
LAR 49.2 BUF 35.6
CAR 49.0 @CHI 35.5
@TEN 48.1 NYJ 35.3
MIA 47.6 @JAC 34.7
CLE 46.4 @LAR 34.7
BAL 45.8 @CAR 34.6
WAS 45.4 @BUF 34.5
@IND 45.1 ARI 34.4
@CLE 45.0 @NE 33.6
CHI 44.3 @BAL 33.5
DET 43.5 PIT 33.2
@NYJ 43.2 CIN 33.1
@DAL 43.2 @LAC 32.7
TEN 42.9 @HOU 32.3
@ATL 42.7 @SEA 32.2
@TB 41.9 @MIN 30.5
NO 41.4 DEN 30.0
@NO 41.2 @KC 29.1
@GB 41.1 @DEN 28.6

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and then applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen - facing each defense either home or away.Not surprisingly, defenses typically perform better at home than on the road.

To remove the effects of the unusually bad or good game, defensive performances have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. The Dorey Rule is "draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks". Those first six games will determine if you get out to a hot start or are trailing by mid-season.

This analysis considers both tight ends and wide receivers awarded 0.1 points per received yard and six point touchdowns along with one point per reception. It also only considers the top three performances allowed to receivers per game at the defensive venue. This aligns better with what fantasy players are likely to be started.

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Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season) Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule) Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad   SOS Good Bad   SOS Good Bad
MIN 5 8 3 NE 4 4 0 ATL 3 3 0
CHI 4 7 3 JAC 3 4 1 DET 2 2 0
BAL 4 7 3 MIA 3 4 1 ARI 1 1 0
JAC 4 6 2 CIN 2 3 1 BAL 1 1 0
SEA 3 5 2 MIN 2 3 1 CHI 1 1 0
DAL 3 4 1 NYG 2 3 1 CIN 1 2 1
NYG 3 4 1 SF 2 3 1 CLE 1 2 1
CAR 2 6 4 ARI 1 1 0 KC 1 1 0
GB 2 7 5 DAL 1 2 1 LAC 1 2 1
CIN 2 7 5 GB 1 3 2 SEA 1 2 1
NYJ 2 5 3 HOU 1 2 1 TEN 1 1 0
TB 2 6 4 LAR 1 2 1 BUF 0 1 1
NE 2 5 3 NYJ 1 2 1 CAR 0 1 1
ARI 1 3 2 SEA 1 2 1 DAL 0 0 0
NO 1 6 5 BAL 0 2 2 DEN 0 1 1
TEN 1 4 3 DET 0 2 2 JAC 0 0 0
SF 0 4 4 LAC 0 1 1 LAR 0 1 1
ATL 0 6 6 NO 0 2 2 NO 0 1 1
DET 0 6 6 OAK 0 2 2 NYG 0 0 0
LAR 0 4 4 TB 0 1 1 NYJ 0 1 1
PIT -1 5 6 ATL -1 2 3 PIT 0 1 1
LAC -1 5 6 CAR -1 1 2 SF 0 1 1
BUF -2 4 6 CHI -1 2 3 TB 0 1 1
KC -2 4 6 IND -1 2 3 GB -1 1 2
OAK -3 2 5 BUF -2 1 3 MIN -1 1 2
CLE -3 4 7 DEN -2 0 2 NE -1 0 1
HOU -4 3 7 TEN -2 0 2 OAK -1 0 1
PHI -4 3 7 WAS -2 0 2 PHI -1 0 1
DEN -4 1 5 KC -3 1 4 HOU -2 0 2
MIA -4 4 8 PIT -3 1 4 MIA -2 0 2
WAS -5 2 7 CLE -4 1 5 IND -3 0 3
IND -6 3 9 PHI -4 0 4 WAS -3 0 3

 

Week - By - Week

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI @DET @IND DAL SF @PHI TB @LAR BYE @SF SEA @HOU JAC LAR TEN @WAS NYG
ATL @CHI GB @DET BUF BYE MIA @NE @NYJ @CAR DAL @SEA TB MIN NO @TB @NO
BAL @CIN CLE @JAC PIT @OAK CHI @MIN MIA @TEN BYE @GB HOU DET @PIT @CLE IND
BUF NYJ @CAR DEN @ATL @CIN BYE TB OAK @NYJ NO @LAC @KC NE IND MIA @NE
CAR @SF BUF NO @NE @DET PHI @CHI @TB ATL MIA BYE @NYJ @NO MIN GB TB
CHI ATL @TB PIT @GB MIN @BAL CAR @NO BYE GB DET @PHI SF @CIN @DET CLE
CIN BAL HOU @GB @CLE BUF BYE @PIT IND @JAC @TEN @DEN CLE PIT CHI @MIN DET
CLE PIT @BAL @IND CIN NYJ @HOU TEN MIN BYE @DET JAC @CIN @LAC GB BAL @CHI
DAL NYG @DEN @ARI LAR GB BYE @SF @WAS KC @ATL PHI LAC WAS @NYG @OAK SEA
DEN LAC DAL @BUF OAK BYE NYG @LAC @KC @PHI NE CIN @OAK @MIA NYJ @IND @WAS
DET ARI @NYG ATL @MIN CAR @NO BYE PIT @GB CLE @CHI MIN @BAL @TB CHI @CIN
GB SEA @ATL CIN CHI @DAL @MIN NO BYE DET @CHI BAL @PIT TB @CLE @CAR MIN
HOU JAC @CIN @NE TEN KC CLE BYE @SEA IND @LAR ARI @BAL @TEN SF @JAC PIT
IND @LAR ARI CLE @SEA SF @TEN JAC @CIN @HOU PIT BYE TEN @JAC @BUF DEN @BAL
JAC @HOU TEN BAL @NYJ @PIT LAR @IND BYE CIN LAC @CLE @ARI IND SEA HOU @SF
KC @NE PHI @LAC WAS @HOU PIT @OAK DEN @DAL BYE @NYG BUF @NYJ OAK LAC MIA
LAC @DEN MIA KC PHI @NYG @OAK DEN @NE BYE @JAC BUF @DAL CLE WAS @KC @NYJ
LAR IND WAS @SF @DAL SEA @JAC ARI BYE @NYG HOU @MIN NO @ARI PHI @SEA @TEN
MIA TB @LAC @NYJ NO TEN @ATL NYJ @BAL OAK @CAR BYE @NE DEN NE @BUF @KC
MIN NO @PIT TB DET @CHI GB BAL @CLE BYE @WAS LAR @DET @ATL @CAR CIN @GB
NE KC @NO HOU CAR @TB @NYJ ATL LAC BYE @DEN @OAK MIA @BUF @MIA @PIT BUF
NO @MIN NE @CAR @MIA BYE DET @GB CHI TB @BUF WAS @LAR CAR @ATL NYJ ATL
NYG @DAL DET @PHI @TB LAC @DEN SEA BYE LAR @SF KC @WAS @OAK DAL PHI @ARI
NYJ @BUF @OAK MIA JAC @CLE NE @MIA ATL BUF @TB BYE CAR KC @DEN @NO LAC
OAK @TEN NYJ @WAS @DEN BAL LAC KC @BUF @MIA BYE NE DEN NYG @KC DAL @PHI
PHI @WAS @KC NYG @LAC ARI @CAR WAS SF DEN BYE @DAL CHI @SEA @LAR @NYG OAK
PIT @CLE MIN @CHI @BAL JAC @KC CIN @DET BYE @IND TEN GB @CIN BAL NE @HOU
SEA @GB SF @TEN IND @LAR BYE @NYG HOU WAS @ARI ATL @SF PHI @JAC LAR @DAL
SF CAR @SEA LAR @ARI @IND @WAS DAL @PHI ARI NYG BYE SEA @CHI @HOU TEN JAC
TB @MIA CHI @MIN NYG NE @ARI @BUF CAR @NO NYJ BYE @ATL @GB DET ATL @CAR
TEN OAK @JAC SEA @HOU @MIA IND @CLE BYE BAL CIN @PIT @IND HOU @ARI @SF LAR
WAS PHI @LAR OAK @KC BYE SF @PHI DAL @SEA MIN @NO NYG @DAL @LAC ARI DEN

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