Game Predictions & Player Projections - IND vs. BAL

David Dorey, @DMDorey

Prediction: IND 0, BAL 26

(Line: BAL by 13, O/U = 41)

UPDATE: Donte Moncrief is out. Jeremy Maclin is listed as doubtful and never practiced. He is not expected to play.

The 3-11 Colts are on a five-game losing streak and are 1-6 on the road. The 8-6 Ravens are 4-2 at home and must continue to win for a wild card bid.

Indianapolis Colts

1 @LAR 9-46 10 PIT 17-20
2 ARI 13-16 OT 11 BYE xxx
3 CLE 31-28 12 TEN 16-20
4 @SEA 18-46 13 @JAC 10-30
5 SF 26-23 OT 14 @BUF 7-13
6 @TEN 22-36 15 DEN 13-25
7 JAC 0-27 16 @BAL ---
8 @CIN 23-24 17 HOU ---
9 @HOU 20-14      
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Jacoby Brissett 10 180
RB Marlon Mack 20 2-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-50
WR Chester Rogers 3-30
TE Jack Doyle 3-30
PK Adam Vinatieri

Pregame Notes: The Colts lost their last five games but their most recent win was Week 9 in Houston. And they play them again in the season finale. This week in Baltimore could be a trap game but that is highly unlikely. This is a team that will potentially get a whole new coaching staff and still has to resolve the issues around Andrew Luck. The fantasy value has been scant all year long and that's not going to change this week.

QUARTERBACK: The season is ending and Jacoby Brissett is not the answer. He's thrown for 11 touchdowns and is not improving. His last four games only produced two touchdowns in total and all remained under 200 passing yards. Brissett is just playing out his first and likely last season as a starter.

RUNNING BACK: Frank Gore gained 130 yards on 36 runes in the snow game with the Bills in Week 14 but was limited to only 31 yards on ten carries versus the Broncos last Thursday. He ended up around 50 to 60 yards in almost every game and scored just once since Week 3. Marlon Mack ends up with six or seven runs per game with no shred of fantasy value. Gore turns into a free agent next year and is all but guaranteed to retire.

WIDE RECEIVER: At least they make it easy. There are no fantasy starters here - not even T.Y. Hilton unless he faces the weakest of defenses. All other wideouts won't catch more than one or two passes per game with minimal yardage and no scores. Hilton should look forward to Week 17 when he goes against the Texans that let him score twice on his 175 yards in Week 9 but he's held under 30 yards in almost all other weeks.

TIGHT END: Jack Doyle can random show up with a touchdown or even notable yardage but in most weeks he's well below any fantasy significance. In the last five games, Doyle turned in games with 47 and 94 yards but was limited to 16 yards or less in the other three. The lack of consistency makes him a risk.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Run. Run fast and don't look back. The Ravens at home have only allowed four passing touchdowns this year and that will likely remain so this time next week. They have to win for a wild card so no reason to take this one lightly, especially considering the chance that it comes down to tie breakers and the Colts are in the same conference.

If there is a touchdown here, there is no way to forecast it. The Colts rushing effort only works in home games. The Ravens are more likely to allow a rushing score but Gore has one in the last 11 games so his worst venue is unlikely to change anything. There are no safe starts here or even ones with any real upside. This is the year of historic shutouts and this could be yet another.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 30 29 29 9 19 27
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 3 19 5 23 11 7

Baltimore Ravens

1 @CIN 20-0 10 BYE xxx
2 CLE 24-10 11 @GB 23-0
3 @JAC 7-44 12 HOU 23-16
4 PIT 9-26 13 DET 44-20
5 @OAK 30-17 14 @PIT 38-39
6 CHI 24-27 OT 15 @CLE 27-10
7 @MIN 16-24 16 IND ---
8 MIA 40-0 17 CIN ---
9 @TEN 20-23      
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 170,1
RB Javorius Allen 30 2-20
RB Alex Collins 110,2 2-30
WR Chris Moore 3-30
WR Mike Wallace 6-90
TE Benjamin Watson 3-30,1
PK Justin Tucker 4 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Ravens made some amends for losing to the Steelers by crushing the Browns. These final two games - at home versus the Colts and Bengals - should be strong wins and keep the Ravens on track for a wild card bid. The offense has shown up better in the last month and that has to continue for them to have any chance. Defense wins championships but that presupposes that there is at least some offense. The Ravens will end the regular season looking strong on both sides of the ball.

QUARTERBACK: Joe Flacco totals only 14 passing touchdowns this year though he's thrown for over 260 yards in each of his last three games. He's even thrown 12 interceptions despite the lower number of completions than most. He'll likely end up right around 3,000 pass yards on the season. Half of his games end up with fewer than 200 passing yards.

RUNNING BACK: Alex Collins was on a four-game stretch of touchdowns when the Browns shut him down in Week 15. But Collins has never gained fewer than 74 yards at home as a starter and he scored three times over his last two homestands. While he usually ends up with two catches, his poor showing last week was helped with his season-high five receptions for 33 yards. Javorius Allen adds in around six to eight touches in most games but Collins holds the fantasy value from this backfield. Danny Woodhead has been a nonfactor but caught six passes for 31 yards last week mostly from the slot after Jeremy Maclin was injured.

WIDE RECEIVER: Jeremy Maclin is not expected to play this week after injuring his knee in the win over the Browns. That should result in more work for Mike Wallace who is on a nice three-game stretch of 70+ yard games. Wallace only scored three times this year but he holds the only two 100-yard efforts by the Ravens. Breshad Perriman came in to cover for Maclin but only managed one catch.

TIGHT END: Ben Watson is highly inconsistent but did score four times this year including last week when he caught four passes for 74 yards versus the Browns. Watson is only a fantasy option when the Ravens face a weak defense against the position. Like this week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Colts always allow a passing score even in a blizzard. The rushing defense is weak as well and more so on the road. Flacco will throw a touchdown and Collins should rush in one. The third score could go either way. This won't be a shootout so the rushing effort should take a bigger place.

Ben Watson is in a good situation for another productive day. The Colts have already given up seven touchdowns to the position and Maclin is out again. Danny Woodhead could pick up more work as well but this is at home versus the Colts. The rushing offense should be enough to win the game by itself. Collins is a very strong start. The biggest fear is that the Ravens get a big lead and let Javorius Allen take over later in the game.

Wallace is the only wideout worth considering and he's been hot lately and in his most advantageous matchup to date. Once again - he could be impacted more by the Ravens pulling back on the throttle in the second half.

Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 31 4 28 11 7 2
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 25 22 23 20 24 30

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