Fantasy strength of schedule: Receivers

Fantasy strength of schedule: Receivers

Strength of Schedule

Fantasy strength of schedule: Receivers

Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

The Strength of Schedule is determined by matching up the fantasy points allowed for each defensive venue (home and away) against the looming schedule for each offense. While defenses will not perform exactly the same as last year, it at least yields a reference point to consider when valuing players. For the first time, I have altered the previous year’s stats by improving the Rams and lowering the Seahawks due to significant personnel moves each franchise made in the offseason. It is only the extreme results that are truly notable.

To remove the effects of the unusually bad or good game, defensive performances had their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position. This analysis considers tight ends and wideouts the same. Each offense use them in varying measures so only combined receiving points make sense. Running backs were not included as receivers.

2017 Receiving Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
20 Best Matchups 20 Worst Matchups
@CAR 36.1 CAR 24.3
HOU 35.4 @ATL 24.3
TB 34.0 @MIA 24.0
GB 33.7 @CHI 23.8
SEA 33.0 @BAL 23.8
NE 33.0 @ARI 23.7
NYG 32.7 BAL 23.4
@SF 32.5 DET 23.4
KC 31.8 LAC 23.3
@SEA 31.4 @PHI 23.3
@NYG 31.3 @LAC 23.2
@IND 31.2 LAR 22.0
WAS 31.0 MIN 21.4
MIA 30.7 @CIN 21.2
@DET 30.1 @MIN 21.0
@TEN 29.7 @BUF 20.2
CLE 29.7 @LAR 19.0
@CLE 29.3 @WAS 19.0
@NYJ 29.3 JAC 19.0
IND 29.1 @JAC 18.4

Three different views are given below – Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. The Dorey Rule is “draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks”. Those first six games will determine if you get out to a hot start or are trailing by mid-season.

This analysis considers running backs awarded 0.1 points per rushed or received yard and six point touchdowns and one point per reception. This is the most common fantasy scoring for receivers.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season) Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule) Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
Team SOS Good Bad Team SOS Good Bad Team SOS Good Bad
JAC 5 7 2 NE 4 5 1 MIN 3 3 0
HOU 4 7 3 HOU 3 3 0 DAL 2 2 0
NE 3 8 5 NYJ 3 4 1 DEN 2 2 0
NYJ 3 8 5 DET 2 3 1 ATL 1 1 0
CIN 2 6 4 JAC 2 2 0 CAR 1 1 0
LAR 2 6 4 NO 2 4 2 CHI 1 2 1
PHI 2 6 4 PHI 2 3 1 HOU 1 2 1
WAS 2 6 4 ARI 1 3 2 IND 1 1 0
BAL 1 4 3 BAL 1 2 1 JAC 1 2 1
CAR 1 5 4 CHI 1 3 2 NO 1 1 0
CHI 1 7 6 CIN 1 3 2 NYJ 1 2 1
DAL 1 6 5 DAL 1 3 2 PIT 1 1 0
DEN 1 6 5 DEN 1 3 2 SEA 1 2 1
MIN 1 5 4 IND 0 2 2 SF 1 1 0
NYG 1 5 4 LAC 0 2 2 TEN 1 2 1
ATL 0 4 4 MIA 0 1 1 WAS 1 2 1
IND 0 4 4 NYG 0 1 1 BAL 0 1 1
LAC 0 3 3 PIT 0 2 2 CIN 0 1 1
NO 0 5 5 WAS 0 2 2 GB 0 1 1
GB -1 4 5 ATL -1 1 2 NYG 0 1 1
MIA -1 3 4 GB -1 1 2 PHI 0 1 1
SEA -1 5 6 LAR -1 1 2 BUF -1 0 1
TB -1 4 5 OAK -1 2 3 CLE -1 0 1
TEN -1 5 6 TB -1 1 2 KC -1 1 2
OAK -2 5 7 CAR -2 1 3 LAC -1 0 1
PIT -2 4 6 CLE -2 0 2 MIA -1 1 2
SF -2 3 5 KC -2 0 2 NE -1 0 1
ARI -3 3 6 MIN -2 0 2 OAK -1 0 1
BUF -3 3 6 BUF -3 0 3 TB -1 0 1
CLE -3 1 4 SEA -3 0 3 LAR -2 0 2
KC -3 2 5 SF -3 0 3 ARI -3 0 3
DET -4 4 8 TEN -3 1 4 DET -3 0 3

Notable Schedules:

Marqise Lee, Donte Moncrief (Jaguars) – The schedule is great but the depth chart clarity is lacking. Lee and Moncrief should become the starters but Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole and the rookie DJ Chalk will also mix in. That will make it harder to rely on any single receiver and more so when there are no reception points. But should any Jaguar pass catcher step up from the pack, he’ll take advantage of the softest schedule for his position. The Jaguars only face two bad matchups all year (at Buffalo and at Miami) and those both come over the final five weeks of the fantasy season.

DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller (Texans) – With a healthy Deshaun Watson returning, both wideouts are not only elite, but even more so without reception points since they’ll score plenty of touchdowns. Fuller in particular will benefit. Both go against only three bad matchups though the final one is Week 16 in Philadelphia. They’ll roll up plenty of points by then facing seven soft games over the first 15 weeks and enjoy a strong start with three of their first four weeks in softer venues.

Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) – Edelman in particular should benefit from their lighter schedule since he returns from a torn ACL and could use the help. And the reality is that Chris Hogan, Jordan Matthews and other receivers will figure into the diverse and complicated passing scheme. But the Pats typically persevere against an annually bad schedule but catch a break in 2018. They’ll face eight soft matchups and get a hot start with four of their first five games against weaker secondaries. Gronkowski easily remains the top tight end even without this help.

Quincy Enunwa, Robby Anderson (Jets) – There’s plenty of risk and upside in the passing scheme for the Jets. An unsure quarterback situation has obvious implications until Sam Darnold is given the job outright. And Quincy Enunwa returns from a lost 2017 season due to a neck injury. But he managed 857 yards in 2016 while Anderson gained 941 yards last year. Now both go against a weaker schedule than most with half of their games played in advantageous venues and four of their initial six games also facing soft matchups. The depth chart could change during the year but both Enunwa and Anderson not only get the primary roles but start the year with a chance to rack up some fantasy points.

Golden Tate, Marvin Jones (Lions) – Both wideouts topped 1,000 yards last year and there’s plenty to like in the passing scheme headed up by Matt Stafford. But – the schedule is as brutal as any in the NFL. Not only are they the only receivers facing eight bad matchups, they all come from Week 7 through Week 16. That’s eight of ten games versus the worst venues to play. Their final four games are against the Rams, at the Cardinals, at the Bills and Week 16 versus the Vikings. Tough time in the fantasy season for that brutal stretch.

Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) – The Cardinals install an all new scheme under offensive coordinator Mike McCoy and the starting quarterback will switch to rookie Josh Rosen at some point. Add in new the rookie Christian Kirk and there plenty of risk this year. Making matters much worse is a schedule that features no good matchups after Week 5 and that ends with four of the final five games playing in the worst venues. The aging Fitzgerald has to suffer through learning pains of a rookie while going against a schedule that only gets worse as the season progresses.

Week-By-Week

TEAM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI WAS @LAR CHI SEA @SF @MIN DEN SF BYE @KC OAK @LAC @GB DET @ATL LAR
ATL @PHI CAR NO CIN @PIT TB NYG BYE @WAS @CLE DAL @NO BAL @GB ARI @CAR
BAL BUF @CIN DEN @PIT @CLE @TEN NO @CAR PIT BYE CIN OAK @ATL @KC TB @LAC
BUF @BAL LAC @MIN @GB TEN @HOU @IND NE CHI @NYJ BYE JAC @MIA NYJ DET @NE
CAR DAL @ATL CIN BYE NYG @WAS @PHI BAL TB @PIT @DET SEA @TB @CLE NO ATL
CHI @GB SEA @ARI TB BYE @MIA NE NYJ @BUF DET MIN @DET @NYG LAR GB @SF
CIN @IND BAL @CAR @ATL MIA PIT @KC TB BYE NO @BAL CLE DEN @LAC OAK @CLE
CLE PIT @NO NYJ @OAK BAL LAC @TB @PIT KC ATL BYE @CIN @HOU CAR @DEN CIN
DAL @CAR NYG @SEA DET @HOU JAC @WAS BYE TEN @PHI @ATL WAS NO PHI @IND TB
DEN SEA OAK @BAL KC @NYJ LAR @ARI @KC HOU BYE @LAC PIT @CIN @SF CLE @OAK
DET NYJ @SF NE @DAL GB BYE @MIA SEA @MIN @CHI CAR CHI LAR @ARI @BUF MIN
GB CHI MIN @WAS BUF @DET SF BYE @LAR @NE MIA @SEA @MIN ARI ATL @CHI @NYJ
HOU @NE @TEN NYG @IND DAL BUF @JAC MIA @DEN BYE @WAS TEN CLE IND @NYJ @PHI
IND CIN @WAS @PHI HOU @NE @NYJ BUF @OAK BYE JAC TEN MIA @JAC @HOU DAL NYG
JAC @NYG NE TEN NYJ @KC @DAL HOU PHI BYE @IND PIT @BUF IND @TEN WAS @MIA
KC @LAC @PIT SF @DEN JAC @NE CIN DEN @CLE ARI @LAR BYE @OAK BAL LAC @SEA
LAC KC @BUF @LAR SF OAK @CLE TEN BYE @SEA @OAK DEN ARI @PIT CIN @KC BAL
LAR @OAK ARI LAC MIN @SEA @DEN @SF GB @NO SEA KC BYE @DET @CHI PHI @ARI
MIA TEN @NYJ OAK @NE @CIN CHI DET @HOU NYJ @GB BYE @IND BUF NE @MIN JAC
MIN SF @GB BUF @LAR @PHI ARI @NYJ NO DET BYE @CHI GB @NE @SEA MIA @DET
NE HOU @JAC @DET MIA IND KC @CHI @BUF GB @TEN BYE @NYJ MIN @MIA @PIT BUF
NO TB CLE @ATL @NYG WAS BYE @BAL @MIN LAR @CIN PHI ATL @DAL @TB @CAR PIT
NYG JAC @DAL @HOU NO @CAR PHI @ATL WAS BYE @SF TB @PHI CHI @WAS TEN @IND
NYJ @DET MIA @CLE @JAC DEN IND MIN @CHI @MIA BUF BYE NE @TEN @BUF HOU GB
OAK LAR @DEN @MIA CLE @LAC SEA BYE IND @SF LAC @ARI @BAL KC PIT @CIN DEN
PHI ATL @TB IND @TEN MIN @NYG CAR @JAC BYE DAL @NO NYG WAS @DAL @LAR HOU
PIT @CLE KC @TB BAL ATL @CIN BYE CLE @BAL CAR @JAC @DEN LAC @OAK NE @NO
SEA @DEN @CHI DAL @ARI LAR @OAK BYE @DET LAC @LAR GB @CAR SF MIN @SF KC
SF @MIN DET @KC @LAC ARI @GB LAR @ARI OAK NYG BYE @TB @SEA DEN SEA CHI
TB @NO PHI PIT @CHI BYE @ATL CLE @CIN @CAR WAS @NYG SF CAR NO @BAL @DAL
TEN @MIA HOU @JAC PHI @BUF BAL @LAC BYE @DAL NE @IND @HOU NYJ JAC @NYG WAS
WAS @ARI IND GB BYE @NO CAR DAL @NYG ATL @TB HOU @DAL @PHI NYG @JAC @TEN
TEAM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

 

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