Fantasy strength of schedule: Running Backs PPR scoring

Fantasy strength of schedule: Running Backs PPR scoring

Strength of Schedule

Fantasy strength of schedule: Running Backs PPR scoring

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Strength of Schedule is determined by matching up the fantasy points allowed for each defensive venue (home and away) against the looming schedule for each offense. While defenses will not perform exactly the same as last year, it at least yields a reference point to consider when valuing players. For the first time, I have altered the previous year’s stats by improving the Rams and lowering the Seahawks due to significant personnel moves each franchise made in the offseason. It is only the extreme results that are truly notable.

To remove the effects of the unusually bad or good game, defensive performances had their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

2017 RB Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
20 Best Matchups 20 Worst Matchups
NYJ 29.8 CHI 21.7
DET 29.4 @NE 21.6
@SF 27.6 @HOU 21.5
GB 27.5 @OAK 21.5
@SEA 27.5 DAL 21.0
OAK 27.5 @ATL 20.9
CIN 27.3 NO 20.5
SEA 27.2 TEN 20.3
TB 27.2 MIN 19.6
@BUF 27.1 @KC 19.1
LAC 27.0 LAR 19.0
MIA 26.9 @NYJ 18.3
WAS 26.1 @ARI 18.2
BUF 25.6 @JAC 17.9
IND 25.5 @PHI 17.7
@CIN 25.3 PIT 17.2
@DET 25.0 @LAR 16.6
@NO 25.0 @DEN 16.5
ATL 24.9 @MIN 15.3
@PIT 24.8 @CAR 15.2

Three different views are given below – Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. The Dorey Rule is “draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks”. Those first six games will determine if you get out to a hot start or are trailing by mid-season.

This analysis considers running backs awarded 0.1 points per rushed or received yard and six point touchdowns and one point per reception. This is the most common fantasy scoring for running backs.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season) Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule) Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
Team SOS Good Bad Team SOS Good Bad Team SOS Good Bad
CHI 5 8 3 BAL 3 3 0 MIN 3 3 0
NE 4 7 3 DET 3 3 0 KC 2 2 0
NYJ 4 6 2 NE 2 3 1 NE 2 2 0
CLE 3 7 4 NYJ 2 3 1 NYJ 2 2 0
LAR 3 7 4 PIT 2 2 0 BUF 1 2 1
CAR 2 6 4 ATL 1 3 2 CHI 1 2 1
BAL 1 6 5 CHI 1 2 1 CIN 1 1 0
JAC 1 4 3 CLE 1 3 2 DAL 1 1 0
LAC 1 5 4 LAC 1 2 1 JAC 1 1 0
MIN 1 6 5 NO 1 2 1 TEN 1 1 0
OAK 1 5 4 PHI 1 2 1 BAL 0 1 1
PIT 1 4 3 WAS 1 3 2 CAR 0 1 1
TEN 1 3 2 ARI 0 3 3 CLE 0 1 1
ATL 0 4 4 DAL 0 2 2 DEN 0 1 1
DET 0 5 5 DEN 0 2 2 GB 0 1 1
KC 0 4 4 GB 0 2 2 LAC 0 1 1
PHI 0 4 4 TEN 0 1 1 OAK 0 1 1
WAS 0 4 4 HOU -1 1 2 PIT 0 1 1
ARI -1 5 6 JAC -1 1 2 SEA 0 1 1
GB -1 5 6 KC -1 1 2 SF 0 1 1
MIA -1 5 6 LAR -1 2 3 ATL -1 0 1
NO -1 4 5 MIN -1 1 2 TB -1 0 1
SF -1 4 5 OAK -1 1 2 LAR -1 0 1
TB -1 3 4 SF -1 1 2 MIA -1 0 1
CIN -2 3 5 TB -1 1 2 NYG -1 0 1
DAL -2 4 6 BUF -2 1 3 PHI -1 0 1
DEN -2 4 6 CAR -2 1 3 WAS -1 0 1
BUF -3 3 6 CIN -2 1 3 ARI -1 1 2
HOU -4 3 7 IND -2 1 3 HOU -1 1 2
NYG -4 3 7 MIA -2 2 4 DET -1 1 2
SEA -4 4 8 NYG -3 0 3 IND -2 0 2
IND -5 3 8 SEA -5 0 5 NO -2 0 2

Notable Schedules:

Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen (CHI) – There is a new offense with head coach Matt Nagy and the rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky struggled last year. But, the offense added all new receivers in Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton and rookie Anthony Miller to concern the defenses. And the backfield enjoys the lightest schedule in the NFL this year with half of their games going against the weak venues. Better yet, five of the final nine weeks offer that advantage including a Week 16 matchup versus the 49ers. The schedule is only average in the first half of the year but then becomes superior to all others. That’ll help Jordan Howard the most since he plays outside in all but two weeks in the latter part of the season.

Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, James White (NE) – The backfield is never easy to forecast and often changes roles as the season progresses. But the first-round rookie Sony Michel gets his shot to likely dominate against a schedule that features only one bad matchup over the initial nine games and yet five soft matchups over that time. Michel has the most upside of the group and could carve out a permanent role thanks to facing mostly lesser opponents to start the year.

Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson (CLE) – Another logjam for a backfield enjoys a lighter schedule. Almost half of the Browns games face a weaker rush defense and there’s all new firepower with Carlos Hyde and the rookie Nick Chubb joining third-down back Duke Johnson. The season winds down with two of the final four games played in Houston and Denver but otherwise six of the first 12 weeks should generate solid fantasy points – the question is if either Hyde or Chubb dominate or if a split workload hurts both.

Todd Gurley (LAR) – While Gurley hardly needs any help, he’ll likely maintain his elite statistics while facing one of the lighter slates of defensive venues. His final game of the fantasy season has him playing in Arizona, but he plays in only two bad venues between Weeks 2 and 15 while going against seven advantageous matchups. That will rightfully keep him in consideration as the first pick in every fantasy draft this summer.

Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines (IND) – The Colts released Frank Gore but did little to replace him other than pick up the diminutive rookie Nyheim Hines in the fourth round and then Jordan Wilkins at the end of round five. Marlon Mack is line to be the primary rusher despite only rushing 93 times as a rookie and averaging 3.8 yards per carry. He’ll face a brutal schedule with eight bad matchups and only three plus games.

Rashaad Penny (SEA) – On the positive, the rookie Rashaad Penny is the best back in Seattle since 2014 when Marshawn Lynch last played a full season. But the offensive line remains a work in progress (at best) and the schedule is no friend. Penny faces eight bad matchups behind those blockers and doesn’t catch any break until the second half of the season. There’s minimal other talent in Seattle so Penny will remain as good as it gets. But unlike his fellow rookie rushers, he’ll start his career with the worst combination of offensive line and schedule.

Week-By-Week

TEAM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI WAS @LAR CHI SEA @SF @MIN DEN SF BYE @KC OAK @LAC @GB DET @ATL LAR
ATL @PHI CAR NO CIN @PIT TB NYG BYE @WAS @CLE DAL @NO BAL @GB ARI @CAR
BAL BUF @CIN DEN @PIT @CLE @TEN NO @CAR PIT BYE CIN OAK @ATL @KC TB @LAC
BUF @BAL LAC @MIN @GB TEN @HOU @IND NE CHI @NYJ BYE JAC @MIA NYJ DET @NE
CAR DAL @ATL CIN BYE NYG @WAS @PHI BAL TB @PIT @DET SEA @TB @CLE NO ATL
CHI @GB SEA @ARI TB BYE @MIA NE NYJ @BUF DET MIN @DET @NYG LAR GB @SF
CIN @IND BAL @CAR @ATL MIA PIT @KC TB BYE NO @BAL CLE DEN @LAC OAK @CLE
CLE PIT @NO NYJ @OAK BAL LAC @TB @PIT KC ATL BYE @CIN @HOU CAR @DEN CIN
DAL @CAR NYG @SEA DET @HOU JAC @WAS BYE TEN @PHI @ATL WAS NO PHI @IND TB
DEN SEA OAK @BAL KC @NYJ LAR @ARI @KC HOU BYE @LAC PIT @CIN @SF CLE @OAK
DET NYJ @SF NE @DAL GB BYE @MIA SEA @MIN @CHI CAR CHI LAR @ARI @BUF MIN
GB CHI MIN @WAS BUF @DET SF BYE @LAR @NE MIA @SEA @MIN ARI ATL @CHI @NYJ
HOU @NE @TEN NYG @IND DAL BUF @JAC MIA @DEN BYE @WAS TEN CLE IND @NYJ @PHI
IND CIN @WAS @PHI HOU @NE @NYJ BUF @OAK BYE JAC TEN MIA @JAC @HOU DAL NYG
JAC @NYG NE TEN NYJ @KC @DAL HOU PHI BYE @IND PIT @BUF IND @TEN WAS @MIA
KC @LAC @PIT SF @DEN JAC @NE CIN DEN @CLE ARI @LAR BYE @OAK BAL LAC @SEA
LAC KC @BUF @LAR SF OAK @CLE TEN BYE @SEA @OAK DEN ARI @PIT CIN @KC BAL
LAR @OAK ARI LAC MIN @SEA @DEN @SF GB @NO SEA KC BYE @DET @CHI PHI @ARI
MIA TEN @NYJ OAK @NE @CIN CHI DET @HOU NYJ @GB BYE @IND BUF NE @MIN JAC
MIN SF @GB BUF @LAR @PHI ARI @NYJ NO DET BYE @CHI GB @NE @SEA MIA @DET
NE HOU @JAC @DET MIA IND KC @CHI @BUF GB @TEN BYE @NYJ MIN @MIA @PIT BUF
NO TB CLE @ATL @NYG WAS BYE @BAL @MIN LAR @CIN PHI ATL @DAL @TB @CAR PIT
NYG JAC @DAL @HOU NO @CAR PHI @ATL WAS BYE @SF TB @PHI CHI @WAS TEN @IND
NYJ @DET MIA @CLE @JAC DEN IND MIN @CHI @MIA BUF BYE NE @TEN @BUF HOU GB
OAK LAR @DEN @MIA CLE @LAC SEA BYE IND @SF LAC @ARI @BAL KC PIT @CIN DEN
PHI ATL @TB IND @TEN MIN @NYG CAR @JAC BYE DAL @NO NYG WAS @DAL @LAR HOU
PIT @CLE KC @TB BAL ATL @CIN BYE CLE @BAL CAR @JAC @DEN LAC @OAK NE @NO
SEA @DEN @CHI DAL @ARI LAR @OAK BYE @DET LAC @LAR GB @CAR SF MIN @SF KC
SF @MIN DET @KC @LAC ARI @GB LAR @ARI OAK NYG BYE @TB @SEA DEN SEA CHI
TB @NO PHI PIT @CHI BYE @ATL CLE @CIN @CAR WAS @NYG SF CAR NO @BAL @DAL
TEN @MIA HOU @JAC PHI @BUF BAL @LAC BYE @DAL NE @IND @HOU NYJ JAC @NYG WAS
WAS @ARI IND GB BYE @NO CAR DAL @NYG ATL @TB HOU @DAL @PHI NYG @JAC @TEN
TEAM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

 

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