Fantasy football draft prep: Selection scenarios with ADP

Fantasy football draft prep: Selection scenarios with ADP

Draft Strategy

Fantasy football draft prep: Selection scenarios with ADP

(Dale Zanine, USA TODAY Sports)

Admittedly, this is more of a fun exercise than a soundly educational one. More advanced owners are not going to find this particularly intriguing, but we all have to start somewhere in fantasy, right?

In the following scenarios, Average Draft Position (ADP) will be utilized to create team-building baselines to give an idea of how each of the 12 draft slots could shake out, at least in a generic sense.

As we all know — or at least should by now — no two drafts were created equal, and the human condition makes a draft impossible to predict. Just as ADP goes, view these outcomes as nothing more than another piece of information and not the be-all, end-all approach to a draft.

Note: All ADP figures come from FantasyFootballCalculator.com

Pure ADP-based value drafting

This is what the first eight rounds look like if you follow standard ADP without factoring positional needs.

Rnd
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Team 6
1 >>
Todd Gurley, RB LeVeon Bell, RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB David Johnson, RB Saquon Barkley, RB Antonio Brown, WR
2 <<
Rob Gronkowski, TE Christian McCaffrey, RB Jerick McKinnon, RB Joe Mixon, RB A.J. Green, WR Keenan Allen, WR
3 >>
Mike Evans, WR Derrick Henry, RB LeSean McCoy, RB Doug Baldwin, WR Aaron Rodgers, QB Derrius Guice, RB
4 <<
Demaryius Thomas, WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Sony Michel, RB Kenyan Drake, RB JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Lamar Miller, RB
5 >>
Brandin Cooks, WR Mark Ingram, RB Allen Robinson, WR Royce Freeman, RB Jimmy Graham, TE Larry Fitzgerald, WR
6 <<
Corey Davis, WR Kyle Rudolph, TE Marlon Mack, RB Carlos Hyde, RB Drew Brees, QB Sammy Watkins, WR
7 >>
Jarvis Landry, WR Kerryon Johnson, RB Cam Newton, QB Tevin Coleman, RB Michael Crabtree, WR Delanie Walker, TE
8 <<
Randall Cobb, WR Jaguars DT Isaiah Crowell, RB Aaron Jones, RB Marquise Goodwin, WR Nick Chubb, RB
Build
0QB, 1RB, 6WR, 1TE
0QB, 5RB, 1WR, 1TE, 1DT
1QB, 6RB, 1WR, 0TE
0QB, 7RB, 1WR, 0TE
2QB, 1RB, 4WR, 1TE
0QB, 3RB, 4WR, 1TE
Rnd
Team 7
Team 8
Team 9
Team 10
Team 11
Team 12
1 >>
Alvin Kamara, RB Leonard Fournette, RB Melvin Gordon, RB DeAndre Hopkins, WR Kareem Hunt, RB Odell Beckham, WR
2 <<
Davante Adams, WR Jordan Howard, RB Devonta Freeman, RB Michael Thomas, WR Julio Jones, WR Dalvin Cook, RB
3 >>
Tyreek Hill, WR Josh Gordon, WR Jay Ajayi, RB Travis Kelce, TE T.Y. Hilton, WR Adam Thielen, WR
4 <<
Zach Ertz, TE Amari Cooper, WR Deshaun Watson, QB Stefon Diggs, WR Alex Collins, RB Rashaad Penny, RB
5 >>
Tom Brady, QB Ronald Jones II, RB Marvin Jones, WR Will Fuller, WR Greg Olsen, TE Marshawn Lynch, RB
6 <<
Carson Wentz, QB Golden Tate, WR Dion Lewis, RB Evan Engram, TE Chris Hogan, WR Russell Wilson, QB
7 >>
Rex Burkhead, RB Jordy Nelson, WR Kirk Cousins, QB Emmanuel Sanders, WR Tarik Cohen, RB Trey Burton, TE
8 <<
Jordan Reed, TE Julian Edelman, WR C.J. Anderson, RB Jimmy Garoppolo, QB Devin Funchess, WR Jamaal Williams, RB
Build
2QB, 2RB, 2WR, 2TE
0QB, 3RB, 5WR, 0TE
2QB, 5RB, 1WR, 0TE
1QB, 0RB, 5WR, 2TE
0QB, 3RB, 4WR, 1TE
1QB, 4RB, 2WR, 1TE

In the above table, teams are wildly unbalanced, There isn’t a real-world situation in which this would take place, so think of it more as an illustration of ADP in a team-by-team format.

Modified ADP round-based drafting

Using the same data from the above table for the first three rounds, the remaining five rounds were modified to account for positional needs, with regard to the value-based drafting, in accordance to the ADP chart. ADP was followed based on players remaining for that specific round.

Rnd
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Team 6
1 >>
Todd Gurley, RB Le’Veon Bell, RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB David Johnson, RB Saquon Barkley, RB Antonio Brown, WR
2 <<
Rob Gronkowski, TE Christian McCaffrey, RB Jerick McKinnon, RB Joe Mixon, RB A.J. Green, WR Keenan Allen, WR
3 >>
Mike Evans, WR Derrick Henry, RB LeSean McCoy, RB Doug Baldwin, WR Aaron Rodgers, QB Derrius Guice, RB
4 <<
Zach Ertz, TE Demaryius Thomas, WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Deshaun Watson, QB JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Sony Michel, RB
5 >>
Brandin Cooks, WR Allen Robinson, WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Marvin Jones, WR Mark Ingram, RB Jimmy Graham, TE
6 <<
Marlon Mack, RB Kyle Rudolph, TE Drew Brees, QB Corey Davis, WR Carlos Hyde, RB Carson Wentz, QB
7 >>
Jarvis Landry, WR Cam Newton, QB Michael Crabtree, WR Delanie Walker, TE Jordy Nelson, WR Kerryon Johnson, RB
8 <<
Isaiah Crowell, RB Jaguars DT Randall Cobb, WR Aaron Jones, RB Nick Chubb, RB Marquise Goodwin, WR
Build
0QB, 3RB, 3WR, 2TE
1QB, 3RB, 2WR 1TE, 1DT
1QB, 3RB, 4WR, 0TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 4RB, 3WR, 0TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
Rnd
Team 7
Team 8
Team 9
Team 10
Team 11
Team 12
1 >>
Alvin Kamara, RB Leonard Fournette, RB Melvin Gordon, RB DeAndre Hopkins, WR Kareem Hunt, RB Odell Beckham, WR
2 <<
Davante Adams, WR Jordan Howard, RB Devonta Freeman, RB Michael Thomas, WR Julio Jones, WR Dalvin Cook, RB
3 >>
Tyreek Hill, WR Josh Gordon, WR Jay Ajayi, RB Travis Kelce, TE T.Y. Hilton, WR Adam Thielen, WR
4 <<
Kenyan Drake, RB Amari Cooper, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Lamar Miller, RB Alex Collins, RB Rashaad Penny, RB
5 >>
Tom Brady, QB Royce Freeman, RB Will Fuller, WR Ronald Jones II, RB Greg Olsen, TE Marshawn Lynch, RB
6 <<
Sammy Watkins, WR Evan Engram, TE Golden Tate, WR Dion Lewis, RB Chris Hogan, WR Russell Wilson, QB
7 >>
Tevin Coleman, RB Kirk Cousins, QB Trey Burton, TE Emmanuel Sanders, WR Rex Burkhead, RB Tarik Cohen, RB
8 <<
C.J. Anderson, RB Julian Edelman, WR Jordan Reed, TE Jamaal Williams, RB Jimmy Garoppolo, QB Devin Funchess, WR
Build
1QB, 4RB, 3WR, 0TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
0QB, 3RB, 3WR, 2TE
0QB, 4RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 4RB, 3WR, 0TE

Doing it this way created several situations in which the team had to decide between an RB3 or WR3, or a QB1 and a TE1, for example. Once those decisions were made, the next available player, per ADP, came off of the board.

Round 4

Team 5: JuJu Smith-Schuster was chosen as a No. 2 receiver over Ingram as the RB2 due to the suspension of Ingram.

Team 1: Despite already having drafted Rob Gronkowski in Round 2, the next best available player was Zach Ertz while maintaining adherence to the “round-chosen rule.”

Round 5

Team 3: Instead of choosing a starting tight end, which would have been Jimmy Graham, Larry Fitzgerald became the team’s WR2.

Team 4: Chose Marvin Jones as the WR2 over Graham as the TE1.

Team 8: Came down to a WR3 or RB3. Will Fuller was the runner-up to Freeman.

Round 6

Team 10: Weak running backs led to choosing Dion Lewis over Carson Wentz.

Team 9: Golden Tate was taken as a WR3 over a QB1 (Wentz) to solidify a shaky receiving corps.

Team 6: Wentz finally goes, costing this team with two rookie RBs a shot at Carlos Hyde and Marlon Mack.

Team 4: Sammy Watkins joined as the WR3 over Kyle Rudolph as the TE1.

Team 3: Needing both a quarterback and tight end, Drew Brees offered more upside than Rudolph.

Round 7

Team 1: Being non-PPR, Jarvis Landry fell to be the No. 3 receiver. No. 3 running backs available: Kerryon Johnson, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead and Tarik Cohen.

Team 3: Despite needing a TE1 (Delanie Walker), Michael Crabtree as a No. 3 joined the mix.

Team 4: Kerryon Johnson was considered before going with Walker as a TE1.

Team 5: A TE1 (Trey Burton) lost out to Jordy Nelson, mainly due to the scoring format.

Team 8: Emmanuel Sanders was the other consideration. Kirk Cousins made this team stronger and solidified a need.

Team 12: Since only players drafted in the same round in the earlier simulation could be used, Cohen became the No. 4 back at the turn. He’d be followed by Devin Funchess.

Round 8

Teams 9 and 10: No quarterbacks were available based on the previously chosen players in the aforementioned draft results.

Teams 5 and 7: No tight ends were available based on the previously chosen players in the aforementioned draft results.

Modified ADP-based drafting

This scenario ignores the constraints of choosing only players from the round in question. The first two rounds remained the same as above, based on ADP, whereas the remaining six were chosen based on a positional needs without the restriction of the picks having to come in that specific round. The picks somewhat adhered to ADP, without any wild swings, using all of the same 96 players drafted in the previous scenarios.

Rnd
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Team 6
1 >>
Todd Gurley, RB Le’Veon Bell, RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB David Johnson, RB Saquon Barkley, RB Antonio Brown, WR
2 <<
Rob Gronkowski, TE Christian McCaffrey, RB Jerick McKinnon, RB Joe Mixon, RB A.J. Green, WR Keenan Allen, WR
3 >>
Mike Evans, WR Doug Baldwin, WR Aaron Rodgers, QB Tyreek Hill, WR LeSean McCoy, RB Derrick Henry, RB
4 <<
Rashaad Penny, RB Stefon Diggs, WR Amari Cooper, WR Deshaun Watson, QB Brandin Cooks, WR Royce Freeman, RB
5 >>
Larry Fitzgerald, WR Jimmy Graham, TE Golden Tate, WR Marvin Jones, WR Tom Brady, QB Zach Ertz, TE
6 <<
Ronald Jones II, RB Cam Newton, QB Emmanuel Sanders, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Carson Wentz, QB
7 >>
Kirk Cousins, QB Carlos Hyde, RB Marlon Mack, RB Kerryon Johnson, RB Kyle Rudolph, TE Michael Crabtree, WR
8 <<
Jamaal Williams, RB Randall Cobb, WR Jaguars DT Jordan Reed, TE Rex Burkhead, RB Nick Chubb, RB
Build
1QB, 4RB, 2WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1DT
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
Rnd
Team 7
Team 8
Team 9
Team 10
Team 11
Team 12
1 >>
Alvin Kamara, RB Leonard Fournette, RB Melvin Gordon, RB DeAndre Hopkins, WR Kareem Hunt, RB Odell Beckham, WR
2 <<
Davante Adams, WR Jordan Howard, RB Devonta Freeman, RB Michael Thomas, WR Julio Jones, WR Dalvin Cook, RB
3 >>
Derrius Guice, RB Josh Gordon, WR T.Y. Hilton, WR Travis Kelce, TE Jay Ajayi, RB Adam Thielen, WR
4 <<
Demaryius Thomas, WR Allen Robinson, WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Kenyan Drake, RB JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Lamar Miller, RB
5 >>
Sony Michel, RB Chris Hogan, WR Greg Olsen, TE Mark Ingram, RB Will Fuller, WR Evan Engram, TE
6 <<
Corey Davis, WR Marshawn Lynch, RB Drew Brees, QB Dion Lewis, RB Alex Collins, RB Russell Wilson, QB
7 >>
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB Delanie Walker, TE Jordy Nelson, WR Devin Funchess, WR Trey Burton, TE Tevin Coleman, RB
8 <<
Isaiah Crowell, RB Tarik Cohen, RB C.J. Anderson, RB Marquise Goodwin, WR Aaron Jones, RB Julian Edelman, WR
Build
1QB, 4RB, 3WR, 0TE
0QB, 4RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
0QB, 3RB, 4WR, 1TE
0QB, 4RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE

PPR need-based drafting without ADP

The final scenario plays out a point-per-reception draft without ADP driving the selections. Some of the picks were made with ADP in mind, though most of this was free-wheeling.

Rnd
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Team 6
1 >>
Todd Gurley, RB Le’Veon Bell, RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB Antonio Brown, WR David Johnson, RB DeAndre Hopkins, WR
2 <<
T.Y. Hilton, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Doug Baldwin, WR Christian McCaffrey, RB Devonta Freeman, RB Mike Evans, WR
3 >>
Joe Mixon, RB Jerick McKinnon, RB Rob Gronkowski, TE Jordan Howard, RB Adam Thielen, WR LeSean McCoy, RB
4 <<
Jarvis Landry, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Allen Robinson, WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Golden Tate, WR
5 >>
Alex Collins, RB Russell Wilson, QB Jay Ajayi, RB Zach Ertz, TE Marvin Jones, WR Royce Freeman, RB
6 <<
Kyle Rudolph, TE Michael Crabtree, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Cam Newton, QB Tevin Coleman, RB Evan Engram, TE
7 >>
Julian Edelman, WR Marlon Mack, RB Kirk Cousins, QB Pierre Garcon, WR Delanie Walker, TE Marshawn Lynch, RB
8 <<
Sterling Shepard, WR C.J. Anderson, RB Duke Johnson, RB Carlos Hyde, RB Robby Anderson, WR Matthew Stafford, QB
Build
0QB, 3RB, 4WR, 1TE
1QB, 4RB, 3WR, 0TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
0QB, 3RB, 4WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
Rnd
Team 7
Team 8
Team 9
Team 10
Team 11
Team 12
1 >>
Alvin Kamara, RB Odell Beckham, WR Saquon Barkley, RB Kareem Hunt, RB Julio Jones, WR Michael Thomas, WR
2 <<
A.J. Green, WR Davante Adams, WR Leonard Fournette, RB Dalvin Cook, RB Keenan Allen, WR Melvin Gordon, RB
3 >>
Josh Gordon, WR Travis Kelce, TE Amari Cooper, WR Aaron Rodgers, QB Derrius Guice, RB Stefon Diggs, WR
4 <<
Kenyan Drake, RB Deshaun Watson, QB JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Derrick Henry, RB Rashaad Penny, RB
5 >>
Jimmy Graham, TE Sony Michel, RB Lamar Miller, RB Corey Davis, WR Greg Olsen, TE Tom Brady, QB
6 <<
Drew Brees, QB Ronald Jones II, RB Carson Wentz, QB Dion Lewis, RB Chris Hogan, WR Mark Ingram, RB
7 >>
Tarik Cohen, RB Will Fuller, WR Jamison Crowder, WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR Kerryon Johnson, RB Devin Funchess, WR
8 <<
Cooper Kupp, WR C.J. Anderson, RB DeVante Parker, WR Jordan Reed, TE Jimmy Garoppolo, QB Trey Burton, TE
Build
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 4WR, 0TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE
1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE

Teams in this situation were much more balanced, with 75 percent of them drafting the combination of one quarterback, three running backs, three wide receivers and one tight end. This draft is more representative of what to expect from a live draft.

As anyone can tell, relying too heavily on ADP alone creates major disparities in roster balance and positional depth. It is a handy tool to have available, but novice gamers must not get too caught up in the actual data.

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