Weekly warriors: Wide Receivers

Weekly warriors: Wide Receivers

Statistical Analysis

Weekly warriors: Wide Receivers

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Below is the percentage of games within each season when a wide receiver produced Top 20 fantasy points for that week. The total is the three-year average. This is a measurement of how often a wide receiver delivers worthy of a fantasy start.

Percentage Top 20 Games

Wide Receivers Average 2017 2016 2015
Odell Beckham Jr 72% 75% 69% 73%
DeAndre Hopkins 66% 87% 44% 69%
Antonio Brown 65% 64% 73% 56%
Julio Jones 55% 31% 64% 69%
Michael Thomas 55% 63% 47%
Jarvis Landry 48% 63% 38% 44%
Mike Evans 48% 40% 63% 40%
Allen Robinson 47% 31% 63%
A.J. Green 46% 44% 50% 44%
Demaryius Thomas 46% 38% 38% 63%
Larry Fitzgerald 46% 38% 44% 56%
Jordy Nelson 42% 21% 63%
Michael Crabtree 40% 46% 44% 31%
Julian Edelman 40% 25% 56%
Brandin Cooks 40% 44% 33% 44%
Cooper Kupp 40% 40%
Golden Tate 40% 56% 31% 31%
Tyreek Hill 39% 53% 25%
JuJu Smith-Schuster 38% 38%
Dez Bryant 38% 38% 54% 22%
Keenan Allen 38% 50% 0% 63%
T.Y. Hilton 38% 31% 50% 31%
Stefon Diggs 37% 43% 38% 31%
Davante Adams 36% 57% 44% 8%
Doug Baldwin 35% 38% 25% 44%
Alshon Jeffery 34% 31% 25% 44%
Amari Cooper 32% 29% 31% 38%
Will Fuller V 30% 30%
Kelvin Benjamin 30% 29% 31%
Robby Anderson 29% 38% 21%
Rishard Matthews 27% 29% 25% 27%

Given that there are over 100 wideouts with a catch each week, any Top-20 performance is notable and yields an advantage.  Even the twenty-best overall only averaged about 40% to 50% of their games in the Top 20.

Total Top 5 Games

Wide Receiver Total 2017 2016 2015
Antonio Brown 16 6 3 7
Julio Jones 12 3 4 5
Doug Baldwin 10 3 3 4
DeAndre Hopkins 9 4 0 5
Keenan Allen 7 4 0 3
Larry Fitzgerald 7 4 2 1
A.J. Green 7 2 3 2
Brandin Cooks 7 2 3 2
T.Y. Hilton 7 2 4 1
Michael Thomas 6 3 3 0
Odell Beckham Jr 6 1 1 4
Davante Adams 5 3 2 0

The names are all familiar but Odell Beckham may be best at turning in Top-20 games but not as good with Top 5. Antonio Brown is clearly the master of the big game (6) while DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Larry Fitzgerald all managed four in 2017.

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