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Day One Draft Lowlights
We’ll see plenty of recaps focusing on the highlights of the 2008 NFL draft over the next week, so for now I’m going to focus on the negative.
We’ll start with the Oakland Raiders. As if it weren’t enough to have Al Davis running the War Room, the Silver & Black also sent Big Al’s brother to New York to work the table at Radio City Music Hall. Neither looked as if they should be expected to make it through the round without requiring a nap. End result? A team that finished sixth in the league in rushing last year and has roughly $15 million tied up in its current stable of backfield bypasses the perfect replacement for Warren Sapp (which the 31st-ranked run defense desperately needs) to swing for the fences with Darren McFadden.
On the heels of that pick, the Chiefs apparently turned down a trade from the Saints that included the 10th overall selection, the Saints second-rounder (40th overall), and New Orleans’ first-round pick in 2009. Glenn Dorsey is a stud, no question, but that’s a whole lot to pass up. Ultimately the Chiefs fared quite well on Day One, but… two ones and a two to move back five spots? If you’re coming off of 4-12 with multiple holes to fill, you gotta make that deal, don’t you?
Last year the Detroit Lions were on the verge of kicking Tatum Bell to the curb. This year, with Bell the lead back in their stable, they pass on Rashard Mendenhall in Round One, then in Round Two add an undersized linebacker who most likely would have been there when they picked early in Round Three. Then again, who are we to question the genius that is Matt Millen? If any of us demonstrated as much sheer incompetence at our jobs as he does at his we would have been out on our backsides a long time ago.
The last time the Ravens traded up into the first round to draft a quarterback they hitched their wagon to the strong arm of Kyle Boller. As Brian Billick admitted during his stint as an NFL Network commentator, that decision helped get him run out of town. So a new administration rolls in… then trades up in the first round to hitch its wagon to the strong arm of Joe Flacco. Somewhere George Santayana is spinning in his grave.
There is no bigger Jeff Fisher fan on the planet than me, but… Chris Johnson? Really? I understand the hope is to create a thunder/lightning thing with Johnson and LenDale White. But unless you’re switching to the wishbone and running old-school triple option it doesn’t make sense. First, it says you made a mistake drafting Chris Henry in the second round last year. And second, it still leaves Vince Young without a target. Either the plan is to switch Johnson to wideout or the Titans figure Young couldn’t hit the target anyway so a 6-4 receiver like Limas Sweed wouldn’t have mattered.
Houston, Houston, Houston. You could have had Rashard Mendenhall or Mike Jenkins at 18, but you traded down. Understandable, since you didn’t have a second-rounder and your primary need is offensive line help. And you tried, you really tried, drafting an offensive tackle at 26. But you probably could have traded back another 10 or 15 spots and still selected Duane Brown. And you still don’t have a second-round pick. Or a running back. Or a cornerback.
The Jets have apparently forgotten Johnnie Mitchell. And Kyle Brady. And their other more pressing needs.
I’d hate to be the Rams intern who figured after round one you just erase the top 10 wide receivers on the draft board, because when the team finds out just who was still actually available when they took Donnie Avery 33rd overall, they are not going to be happy.
Nothing against Jordy Nelson, who I think will be a solid pro. And nothing against the Packers, who once again deftly traded down. But I’m not sure the Pack is good enough to afford an absolute luxury pick like a fifth wide receiver.
I’ll be checking the Bay Area news tomorrow morning for reports of a Mike Martz killing spree. A tip to CSI SF: one stab wound for every good receiver still on the board when the Niners picked Chilo Rachal at No. 39.
The worst moment of Day One occurred at No. 40, and it has nothing to do with the Saints’ selection of Tracy Porter. While NFL Network was interviewing Jerry Jones (thankfully, I was not watching in hi-def), I switched over to ESPN to find the once-great Chris Berman mubmlin’ bumblin’ stumblin’ over himself. I opted for a commercial on another channel.
As a Vikings’ fan, I’ll remember the 2008 draft for the acquisition of Jared Allen. And I do think Tyrell Johnson will be a good player some day. But unless Minnesota plans on lining up Allen at right tackle and Johnson at tight end, the Purple still have two glaring needs to fill. And because Brad Childress gifted the Vikings’ fourth-round pick to his former employers in Philly, Minnesota won’t have a chance to address those needs until pick No. 150. Jared Allen… serenity now.. Jared Allen… serenity now… Jared Allen…
It’s become a contest: who can pick “the next Marques Colston” too early this year? In 2007 that moniker elevated Jacoby Jones to the third round; this year, the Bengals took Jerome Simpson at No. 46—with Limas Sweed, Malcolm Kelly, and Mario Manningham still on the board. Maybe Marv and Ocho Cinco can still kiss and make up.
Long Time Coming
If Adam Schefter is to be believed—and there’s really no reason to think he shouldn’t—the Dolphins have committed $57.5 million, more than half of it guaranteed, to offensive tackle Jake Long with the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
It should come as no surprise to those who know my penchant for offensive linemen that I’m a big fan of this move.
For starters, the Miami depth chart at tackle looks a little something like this:
LT: Vernon Carey, a converted guard
RT: Julius Wilson, an undrafted free agent last season who was signed off their practice squad in December
There are no other tackles on their current roster. So to say Long fills an immediate need for the Dolphins is an understatement along the lines of saying Neil Peart fills a need for a drummer in a Canadian power rock trio.
And while the move may seem to fly in the face of Bill Parcell’s “defense first” philosophy, it makes sense on a couple more levels beyond sheer “need”.
There’s the historical perspective. Since the inception of the NFL Draft, two teams have had the foresight and intelligence to spend the first overall selection on an offensive tackle. The result? Ron Yary (Vikings, 1968) and Orlando Pace (Rams, 1997) have combined for 25 NFL seasons and 14 Pro Bowl appearances. That’s a solid track record of success.
Then there’s the functional perspective. Sure, the Dolphins could draft Matt Ryan first overall, but with no one to protect him he’d be doomed to a fate similar to Tim Couch and David Carr—two first-overall selections with talent who had their potential beaten out of them as they absorbed sack after sack after spleen-bursting sack behind patchwork offensive lines. At a minimum, this approach should give John Beck or Josh McCown a little extra time as they try to prove their worth under center—an approach that worked remarkably well for the Browns and Derek Anderson last season.
And if the Dolphins are still brutal next season they’ll have another opportunity to land a franchise quarterback—one who will be well protected on the blindside.
So go ahead and tweak your draft contest entries. Locking in Jake Long at No. 1 is a freebie, but you still have 30 other slots to fill in.
Rare Air
The news that Steve McNair retired yesterday hardly came as a surprise. He’d been a mere shell of his former self since before the Titans cut their ties with him, and he was mostly dead to fantasy owners anyway. Most draft analysts had the Ravens taking a quarterback in the first two rounds even before McNair’s announcement, as his best NFL days were clearly in the rear view mirror.
So while his absence will barely register when fantasy leagues come together for drafts and auctions later this summer, I can’t imagine I’ll be the only one tipping my cap and hoisting a beverage in McNair’s memory. I’ve been an unabashed McNair fan for the bulk of his career, and I was fortunate enough to harness arguably his best fantasy season (his MVP year of 2003) and put it to good use in winning my big-money league.
Of course, it’s a microcosm of McNair’s career that while he was outstanding in Weeks 14 (235 yards and two passing touchdowns plus running in another against the Colts) and 16 (268 and two against the Texans) that season, a key step in that championship run was plugging in McNair’s understudy, Billy Volek—he of the 295 passing yards, three total touchdowns, and one busted spleen—in Week 15 while McNair sat out.
Aside from a solid three-year run culminating with his MVP season, though, McNair was never really a numbers guy. Despite rushing for 20 touchdowns from 1997 through 1999, he topped 20 total touchdowns in a season just once prior to the aforementioned run in 2001. His best finish on the passing touchdown leaderboard was sixth in 2003. And the end of the road has been a long time coming: he’s rushed for a total of three touchdowns in the past four seasons combined and missed 22 games since 2002.
But while fantasy football is all about the numbers, my appreciation for McNair went beyond. In an age where players take a day off because they slept wrong, you had to nail McNair’s foot to the locker room floor to keep him off the field—and even then he’d chew through his own leg and hobble out for the second half. Most importantly, he’d lead his team to victory—or at the very least give them every opportunity to win the game.
McNair’s numbers aren’t going to get him into the Hall of Fame. But when I’m old and gray and telling my grandkids about the quarterbacks I watched “back in my day,” I’m quite certain bust or no bust I’ll remember to mention Steve McNair.
A poster on the Huddle message boards perhaps summed up the recent changing of the guard at quarterback in this post: “Between he and Favre… the NFL lost around 5 players worth of heart this year.”
So when Matt Ryan or Chad Henne or Troy Smith steps under center in the Ravens’ 2008 opener, I’ll give McNair’s memory a nod. Maybe an ice pack on the lower back would be an appropriate memorial. And one on the shoulder. And one on each knee. And maybe a warm compress around the ankle. And…
Making a Mockery
Mock drafts are fun. They’re also an incredibly futile gesture.
I’m not talking about mock fantasy drafts; those are an absolutely necessary step in your draft day preparation, and for the most part we’re still a good three months away from conducting any meaningful fantasy mockeries.
No, I’m talking about the attempt to speculate what 32 front offices with different agendas and evaluation criteria will do later this month when they speculate how an array of 22-year-old kids will fare in the NFL over the next decade or so.
It’s like that mathematical calculation that involves an exclamation point, where you multiply a series of descending numbers to arrive at some gigantic total of ultimate possibilities. If there are three logical options for the Dolphins, then three more logical possibilities for the Rams, and four different ways the Falcons could go… you’re going to wind up with a monstrosity of a number of potential draft day outcomes.
I’ve conducted multiple mock drafts of my own over the past month or so, and each one is different from the last. Not because any player did anything meaningful on a football field; none of these guys have played a game in at least two months. But a guy might run fast in shorts on a track, or a rumor might surface about another guy’s off-field activities, and all of a sudden the top 10 is jumbled. Again.
Take my most recent mock, for example. I’ve been holding fast to the belief that Chris Long goes to the Dolphins with the first overall pick for most of the mock season. However, given the Fins’ recent negotiations with Jake Long I opted to switch in the mock you’ll currently see on the site. So what happens? Reports indicate that Jake might not want to play in Miami and won’t bite on Big Tuna’s lowball offer.
So is this mock moot moments after its completion? I hope not; otherwise that’s a ton of effort wasted.
Another example: let’s compare and contrast my mock with Monday’s contribution from my esteemed colleague, Mike Courter. We both have Jake going to Miami but our paths diverge immediate after that for the next five picks. And you know what? As confident as I am that I’ve projected what the Rams, Falcons, Raiders, and Chiefs might due given their respective circumstances, the selections Mike made for those teams make just as much sense. Does St. Louis draft Glenn Dorsey and kick Adam Carriker outside? Could happen. Can Atlanta get a quarterback in the second round, allowing them to shore up their defense with the red-hot Vernon Gholston? That’s a shrewd move as well. Would the Raiders jump at the chance to put Howie Long’s kid in the Silver and Black? Unquestionably.
That Mike and I reach consensus on the next five selections and six of the next seven is actually quite surprising. Great minds think alike, perhaps. ESPN draftniks Mel Kiper and Todd McShay matched on a total of six selections in their dueling mocks; Mike and I shared a brain on nine picks, which may be even more remarkable considering we have yet to cross paths at the Huddle water cooler. And on more than a few of the selections where we differ, his logic makes as much sense to me as my own.
What’s the point of this? To discourage you from taking mock drafts seriously? Of course not. I’m sure I’ll churn out at least a couple more mockeries before the real deal takes place, and I don’t plan on drawing names out of a hat; actual thought goes into the logic behind each and every pick.
Maybe that’s the problem. After all, in any event where Al Davis and Matt Millen are involved, logic may be on the outside looking in, face pressed up against the glass.
No, I think the ultimate goal of these mocks is to create some sort of logical outcome that will allow us to see what’s in store for our favorite team, real or fantasy. If you’re holding Larry Johnson in a dynasty league, you want to know if the Chiefs will give him some help up front. If you’re thinking about Trent Edwards as your sleeper quarterback you’d love to see him paired with a taller target opposite Lee Evans.
And if, for example, you’re a Vikings fan, you’re desperately looking for a way for Derrick Harvey to fall to your squad. Hey, it could happen… right?
Who’s the Next Joe Thomas?
Dan Patrick and I have plenty in common. We share a birthday, for example. We both have three daughters—and a son to keep us sane. We both spend a lot of time talking about sports.
And if you were listing to Dan’s radio show Friday morning, you’ll know that he agrees with me when I say Joe Thomas deserved a share of the Rookie of the Year award last season.
Please don’t misunderstand me; I’m as big an Adrian Peterson fan as you will find. My son joined me in chanting “Adrian!” at the TV with me last April as we pleaded for our beloved Vikings to make the right pick. We exchanged purple No. 28 jerseys for Christmas. And both males in the 2V household have Peterson posters on the wall of their respective man-caves.
But while Peterson was great last year, and at times breathtakingly phenomenal, his impact was—in my opinion—less than that of Thomas.
Peterson had the numbers, and I certainly don’t begrudge him a share of the award. But to give him the honor unanimously discounts what Thomas’ addition meant to multiple Pumpkin-Helmeted Warriors.
What are the chances Jamal Lewis would have resurrected his career without the running room Thomas provided on the left side?
Would Derek Anderson be as rich a man as he is now were not Thomas protecting his blind side? And wasn’t it Anderson’s passing that led to Braylon Edwards’ monster season and another sterling effort from Kellen Winslow?
That’s in the past, and Joe being an offensive lineman is unlikely to lose any sleep over lack of recognition; after all, toiling in anonymity goes with the territory.
But think about what this year’s Joe Thomas could do for the fantasy principals on his new NFL squad.
The Class of 2008 features several candidates to emulate Thomas’ fantasy impact. The addition of Jake Long may give John Beck that extra split second to wait for Ted Ginn to get open or hold a hole open one blink longer to allow Ronnie Brown and his surgically repaired knee to slip through. Or maybe Long lands with the Rams and keeps Marc Bulger’s bell from being rung (again) while cracking daylight for Steven Jackson.
Maybe Ryan Clady adds another layer of protection for Tom Brady, making him virtually bulletproof and giving Randy Moss all the time he needs to get downfield. Maybe Branden Albert steps in for Alan Faneca in Pittsburgh and paves the way for Willie Parker to find the end zone once again. Maybe Chris Williams is the left tackle the Texans have been desperately seeking ever since making Tony Boselli their first pick in the expansion draft—boding extremely well for Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and whichever back between Ahman Green, Chris Brown, and Chris Taylor is closest to healthy in any given week.
Sure, it’ll be fun to see where Matt Ryan lands, how far Brian Brohm falls, which team bites on the opportunity to help Darren McFadden make those child support payments. But if you really want to separate yourself from the pack as you make those fantasy projections for 2008, keep an eye on where Long, Clady, Albert, and Williams land. Maybe McFadden will wind up with the NFL’s ROY hardware at the end of the season—but those other four horsemen could have a much greater say in whether or not you’re hoisting your fantasy league’s trophy.
It All Starts Up Front
With most of the sports buzz still centered on Monday night’s entertaining NCAA title game, I won’t attempt to shoehorn too many football thoughts into my inaugural post. Suffice it to say that I’m thrilled to be joining the Huddle team and looking forward to sharing hopefully cognizant fantasy football thoughts with you on a regular basis.
By way of introduction, you should probably know that I come from a decidedly “offensive lineman” mindset. In my opinion it’s an underappreciated part of fantasy football, and I’m doing my best to change that school of thought.
Not that “skill” position players don’t matter, of course, but it’s amazing how many fantasy folks don’t acknowledge the difference of, say, Michael Turner running behind the Chargers’ offensive line and Michael Turner running behind the Falcons’ offensive line.
But more than just the literal application of “it all starts up front” is a figurative interpretation as well. Before you can bust off a championship season, for example, you need to have a solid foundation.
Not that I’m telling you anything you don’t already know, of course; I’m confident I will continue to find the Huddle readership every bit as knowledgeable and informed as I have come to believe during my decade or so in the fantasy football industry.
What I’m hoping to do, both in this blog and more formally through the virtual pages of The Huddle, is to augment that expertise with a view that perhaps you haven’t considered. Or maybe you’ve considered but are seeking validation.
Or maybe you just need another talking head to prove wrong.
In any event, I’m happy to be on board and excited to talk fantasy football with you in hopes of bettering your chances of hoisting some hardware this coming December.
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