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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 8, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
GB at MIN NYJ at NE     Updated

Prediction: GB 13, MIN 20

The Packers had won two games in a row with over 30 points in each until they went to Buffalo in week nine and returned to the error prone offense that undermined most games this year. The Vikings are on a two game losing streak after losing to New England and, incredibly, the 49ers. This makes for a nice match-up - a great defense with almost no offense meets a good offense that has no defense. Take the home team in this one but if Favre can post a couple of scores, the Vikes likely have no means to catch up.

The Vikings swept the Packers last year, winning 23-20 at home and 20-17 in Green Bay.

Update: Greg Jennings re-aggravated his sprained ankle last week and still has not returned to practice. I am lowering his projections for now but it mostly depends on what he does on Friday. If he practices, he'll likely play but if he missed another, then he may be replaced by Ruvell Martin. The Vikings at home is going to be a tough match-up for the Packers already and Jennings banged up does not help. Martin has done almost nothing so far.

Ahman Green was held out of practice on Wednesday to rest his knee but returned on Friday and is expected to play.

I am also lowering Marcus Robinson's projections because he has yet to practice this week because of his sore back. He may not play this week so check the inactive before the game to make sure he plays. I am also lowering Chester Taylor's numbers as well because he too is questionable this week and has been limited in practice this week. Taylor says he will play but HC Brad Childress said Taylor was rested because he has not been moving around well because of a calf strain. It appears he will play and the rest could do him some good but be aware that he is not 100%.

Green Bay Packers (3-5)
1 0-26 CHI 10 --- @MIN
2 27-34 NO 11 --- NE
3 31-24 @DET 12 --- @SEA
4 9-31 @PHI 13 --- NYJ
5 20-23 STL 14 --- @SF
6 Open Bye 15 --- DET
7 34-24 @MIA 16 --- MIN
8 31-14 ARZ 17 --- @CHI
9 10-24 @BUF - MON THU
GBP at MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 210,1
RB Ahman Green 70 30 0
TE David Martin 0 20 0
WR Donald Driver 0 70,1 0
WR Ruvell Martin 0 20 0
WR Greg Jennings 0 50 0
PK Dave Rayner 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Just when it seemed the Packers were on the path back to mediocrity, the road game to Buffalo once again showed that turnovers are not the Packers friends. This first match-up against the Vikings goes against the best defense to face Favre and company since the week one fiasco in Chicago. The rushing game has come alive in recent weeks but the passing attack has remains the problem thanks mostly to turnovers and injuries - just like last year.

Quarterback: Brett Favre has been consistent this year by throwing at least one score in six of the last seven outings but for four games starting in week four, Favre could not get past 220 yards in a game. He comes off a decent 287 yard performance in Buffalo but only scored once while throwing two interceptions, one of which was returned for a Bills score. Favre threw for 315 yards and two scores in Minnesota last year and had 227 yards and two scores in Green Bay when the Vikings were the visitor.

Running Backs: Filed under "Go Figure", the Packers last three games has seen Ahman Green tearing up defenses via the run with over 200 rushing yards in each and three scores in that time. Green had been involved in the receiving game until his injury in week three but since his return in week seven, all he does is run very well each week for better than five yards per game. Those defenses - BUF, ARZ and MIA may not be as good as Minnesota, but two of those games came on the road.

Vernand Morency was inactive on Sunday because of a lower back injury and he isn't expected back yet. Just more Ahman Green with a dash of Noah Herron when he needs a breather.

The Packers never ran for more than 49 yards against the Vikings last year.

Wide Receivers: Greg Jennings returned last week and ended with five catches for 69 yards but re-aggravated the sprained ankle that made him miss week eight. He was able to return to the game so he should be fine this week. Jennings had been the most productive receiver through week five until he was injured and has three scores on the season. Donald Driver had 96 yards on nine catches and one score last week and oddly enough he is at his best on the road. All three of his touchdowns came in away games and two of his best three yardage games. When the defenses are tough, Favre still likes to rely on his most comfortable target in Driver. Jennings had two of his scores at home and only one on the road. It's like they trade off depending on where they are playing.

Driver had big efforts when he faced the Vikes in 2005. He turned in 114 yards and one score in Minnesota and later 84 yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay.

Tight Ends: David Martin has emerged as a fantasy relevant tight end with two scores in the last three games and at least 30 yards in each matchup. Maybe not Gates good, but bye week filler sort of relevant.

Match Against the Defense: The Vikings at home have been very good against running backs and Green's string of 100 yard games is likely to end this week. Expect only moderate yardage in this game but that should push Green back into his role as a receiver where he can maintain decent fantasy value.

Favre had a nice showing against the Vikes last year but these Vikes are much better at defending the pass with only Brady able to throw more than one score against them. Expect that one score that still favors Driver and much less yardage than he had in 2005 against the Vikes.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 12 8 15 16 14 8
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 15 3 20 6 27 10


Minnesota Vikings (4-4)
1 19-16 @WAS 10 --- GB
2 16-13 CAR 11 --- @MIA
3 16-19 CHI 12 --- ARZ
4 12-17 @BUF 13 --- @CHI
5 26-17 DET 14 --- @DET
6 Open Bye 15 --- NYJ
7 31-13 @SEA 16 --- @GB
8 7-31 NE 17 --- STL
9 3-9 @SF - MON THU
MIN vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Brad Johnson 0 0 170,1
RB Chester Taylor 80,1 10 0
TE Jermaine Wiggins 0 20 0
WR Marcus Robinson 0 40 0
WR Troy Williamson 0 20 0
WR Travis Taylor 0 60,1 0
PK Ryan Longwell 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: In an odd but very consistent pattern, the Vikings have spent this season winning two games, then losing two, then winning two, then losing two... They still have yet to find any progress in the passing game under Brad Johnson and have managed their wins largely thanks to the defense and running of Chester Taylor. The offense hit an all-time low with just three points in San Francisco last week after posting 31 points in Seattle - again mostly thanks to the defense.

Quarterback: Brad Johnson remains the starter here but after eight games, he only has four passing touchdowns and never more than one in any game. His yardage remains safely below 200 yards in most games and he's been little more than a game manager. He's also been the source of several losses with four interceptions and two lost fumbles in just the last two games. In five home stands so far, Johnson has only one passing score to his credit.

Brad Johnson was the starter in week seven when the Vikings came to Green Bay but he only had 196 yards and no scores.

Running Backs: The "every two games" trend has been mirrored by the production of Chester Taylor as well. In those winning weeks, he has always turned in at least 120 total yards and both his touchdowns this year. In the "other two" he usually struggles though he had 141 total yards in San Francisco last week.

The Vikings were unable to run much in their home meeting with the Packers but later in the season, Mewelde Moore ran for 122 yards in Green Bay.

Wide Receivers: The Vikings now can challenge the Falcons for the least effective wideouts in the league. Troy Williamson has been a huge bust in his sophomore year and has never scored. Travis Taylor has one touchdown but less than 50 yards in every game for the last five weeks. Marcus Robinson has three touchdowns to lead the team but each of those came in road games as did his two games over 70 yards. HC Brad Childress has installed a dink-n-dunk offense that has killed the fantasy value of all Vikings receivers.

Marcus Robinson had 60 yards and one score when the Packers visited in 2005 but did not play in the second meeting. Troy Williamson was always horrible against the Packers, never having more than two catches or 13 yards against the Packers in either game last year.

Tight Ends: Jermaine Wiggins only has one score on the season and never gets more than 30 yards in all but one game this year. Like the wideouts, he's lost all fantasy value.

Wiggins always had a good game against the Packers last year, turning in six catches for 56 yards at home and later seven catches for 67 yards in Green Bay.

Match Against the Defense: Chester Taylor has been running well and at home against a bad defense, he should be a lock for decent yardage and one score. If he can break one, he could end up with a big game here that would only continue his off trend.

Johnson is projected for a touchdown only because he goes against the worst secondary in the NFL but he's not likely to reach that lofty "two scores" because the offense is not set up for it. Look for a wideout to score a touchdown that slightly favors Travis Taylor.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 31 15 26 21 18 3
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 32 19 31 4 28 19