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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 8, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
GB at MIN NYJ at NE     Updated

Prediction: HOU 6, JAX 27

The Texans shocked the Jaguars by winning 27-7 in Houston just three weeks ago. Jacksonville is 4-0 at home this year and the last three visitors combined for just seven points. Houston is 0-4 on the road this year. Oh yeah, the Jaguars can remember back three weeks.

Houston Texans (2-6)
1 10-24 PHI 10 --- @JAX
2 24-43 @IND 11 --- BUF
3 15-31 WAS 12 --- @NYJ
4 17-15 MIA 13 --- @OAK
5 Open Bye 14 --- TEN
6 6-34 @DAL 15 --- @NE
7 27-7 JAX 16 --- IND
8 22-28 @TEN 17 --- CLE
9 10-14 @NYG - - -
HOU at JAX Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 0 0 200
RB Wali Lundy 50 30 0
TE Owen Daniels 0 30 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 80 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 40 0
WR Kevin Walter 0 20 0
PK Kris Brown 2 FG 0 XP -
Pregame Notes: Big win back in week seven when the Texans dismantled the Jaguars and that is the last time that Leftwich has played. But the next two games were losses on the road to the Titans and a fairly disinterested Giants last week. Unfortunately, there is not a chance that the Jaguars take this game lightly.

Quarterback: David Carr came back from his benching in week eight to only post 176 yards against the Giants though he did run in his second rushing score this year. Carr had three scores on the road to Indy this year but has not had a touchdown in the other three away games. He scores in every home game and yet only once when he is on the road - not a good sign for this week.

Carr threw for 224 yards and two scores when the Jaguars came to Houston in week seven.

Running Backs: Predictably, Wali Lundy only managed 43 yards on 20 carries in New York last Sunday though he added 16 yards on three catches. More important is that no other runner had a carry for the Texans so whatever there is to get will be all Lundy's. Lundy ran for 93 yards on 19 carries and scored once against the Jaguars in week seven.

Wide Receivers: Andre Johnson has been automatic for eight or nine catches per game since the second game of the season. He has gained over 100 yards in every home game this year but has never had more than 83 yards on the road. He's easily the closest to a stud that the Texans have and remains the only consistently good feature of this offense. Eric Moulds hasn't scored in the last seven games and has spent the last month under 50 yards per effort. The passing numbers here just do not end up benefiting anyone other than Johnson.

Johnson had 106 yards and one score against the Jaguars this season while Eric Moulds was held to only 16 yards.

Tight Ends: Owen Daniels was a hot property on the waiver wire after scoring three times in two games but he comes off just 34 yards on three catches against the Giants. Owens has five touchdowns on the season - more than even Andre Johnson has.

Owen Daniels had two catches for 20 yards and one score against the Jaguars.

Match Against the Defense: The Jaguars already have a top ten defense in all categories and that doesn't consider playing at home against a team deserving some revenge. Expect low numbers again from Lundy without a score.

Carr had decent success in the previous match-up, but the Jaguars have only allowed two passing scores in total to the four teams that have visited Jacksonville. Carr could have one passing score here but that alone would be a big success and two is almost out of the realm of possibility. I am projecting a shutout for Carr though who has struggled in every road game this year since week two. The Jaguars have a score to settle and Carr is where it starts.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 8 31 20 10 29 32
Preventing Fantasy Points JAX 5 9 5 9 2 6


Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)
1 24-17 DAL 10 --- HOU
2 9-0 PIT 11 --- NYG
3 14-21 @IND 12 --- @BUF
4 30-36 @WAS 13 --- @MIA
5 41-0 NYJ 14 --- IND
6 Open Bye 15 --- @TEN
7 7-27 @HOU 16 --- NE
8 13-6 @PHI 17 --- @KC
9 37-7 TEN - - MON
JAX vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 10 0 180,1
RB Fred Taylor 100,1 10 0
RB Maurice Drew 60,1 20 0
TE George Wrighster 0 20 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 10 0
WR Ernest Wilford 0 40 0
WR Matt Jones 0 70,1 0
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: Since that embarrassing loss in Houston, the Jags have taken down the Eagles in Philly and last week the Titans with huge defensive efforts. The Jags will start Garrard again this week and are in no apparent hurry to rush Leftwich back into the lineup. With the defense running smoothly and the rushing game running deep, there's been no real reason to worry about a quarterback lately anyway. This is the Jags chance at a bit of revenge for being humbled in Houston three weeks ago.

Quarterback: David Garrard remains the starter this week after throwing for 177 yards and three scores against the Titans last week. Garrard hasn't been a major upgrade from Leftwich other than he has not had a turnover this year and has put together two wins. Garrard also offers a bit more mobility in the backfield than Leftwich. The real test is if Leftwich is healthy next week and the Jags elect to remain with Garrard when the Giants show up.

Leftwich only had 125 passing yards and no score in Houston this year.

Running Backs: The duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew has been deadly this year and though they have only had three rushing efforts over 100 yards individually, combined they create the #2 best rushing team in the league currently.

Taylor ran for 84 yards on 16 carries in Houston this season but Maurice Jones-Drew took the touchdown on only eight carries for ten yards. Jones-Drew added 58 yards on seven catches.

Wide Receivers: With Garrard at the helm, the Jaguars have not used the wideouts much and Matt Jones comes off the biggest game with just three catches for 66 yards last week. Ernest Wilford had two scores against the Titans and those are the only passing touchdowns thrown by Garrard. But Wilford only had three catches for 44 yards and just one catch in week eight. Reggie Williams has returned to being a one catch per week player. The passing is not here because it does not need to be.

No wideout had more than 26 yards in the previous meeting with the Texans.

Tight Ends: George Wrighster had a score last week but it was on his only reception in the game. There's never been any significant yardage from this position for the entire season.

Match Against the Defense: Expect a nice game from both Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew this week with a good chance that either or even both could score. This game will be a lot of defense and rushing.

Garrard faces a secondary that has never failed to give up at least one score each week. Expect just that with only moderate yardage this week and for the score to end up with Matt Jones.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAX 20 2 23 23 7 20
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 24 25 12 13 13 22