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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Player Projections by Team
Game Predictions Summary
The Huddle
November 8, 2006
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Sunday night
GB at MIN NYJ at NE     Updated

Prediction: KC 24, MIA 20

The Chiefs are on a three game winning streak and are within one game of both the Chargers and Broncos. The Dolphins come off the best game of the year, rather easily, when they dumped the previously undefeated Bears in Chicago. The Chiefs are due for a loss but the Fins winning back-to-back? Not yet.

The Chiefs won 30-20 in Miami last year during week seven.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
1 10-23 CIN 10 --- @MIA
2 6-9 @DEN 11 --- OAK
3 Open Bye 12 --- DEN
4 41-0 SF 13 --- @CLE
5 23-20 @ARZ 14 --- BAL
6 7-45 @PIT 15 --- @SD
7 30-27 SD 16 --- @OAK
8 35-28 SEA 17 --- JAX
9 31-17 @STL - THU SAT
KCC at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Damon Huard 0 0 230.2
RB Larry Johnson 110,1 40 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 60,1 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 70,1 0
WR Samie Parker 0 30 0
WR Dante Hall 0 20 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: Something about that road massacre by the Steelers woke up the Chiefs who have been on a roll ever since. The offense has been scoring over 30 points every week and the defense, well, the defense has been just good enough that 30 points is enough to win. Larry Johnson is cruising like it was 2005 and Damon Huard has made Trent Green no longer an obvious choice when he returns, After this week there is only a home game against the Raiders waiting, so the Chiefs have no reason not to fully prepare for their fourth consecutive win. No taking the Dolphins too lightly - just ask the Bears.

Quarterback: This three game winning spree went against three quality opponents of SD, SEA and STL and Damon Huard sailed through every match-up with an average of two scores and no interceptions. The biggest limitation to Huard lately is that Johnson has been running so well but even Johnson has been catching Huard touchdowns.

Trent Green is very close to being healthy enough to play but HC Herman Edwards has had a recent change of heart. With the winning streak alive and the Chiefs offense clicking, Green is going to have to wait a while.

Green threw for 289 yards against the Dolphins last year.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson has been in top gear these last three weeks with three straight efforts over 130 rushing yards and seven touchdowns scored. Johnson finally had a game without any receptions last week but he had a season high 172 yards and one score on the ground anyway. The offense has finally become comfortable this year and Johnson is on a roll comparable with Tomlinson.

Priest Holmes was still playing when these teams met in week seven last year and he had 90 yards and two scores while Johnson ran for 93 yards and one score.

Wide Receivers: The winning streak has little to do with the wideouts other than Eddie Kennison gaining 132 yards in week eight. Otherwise, all the wideouts have been turning in sub-50 yard efforts including Kennison. With Gonzalez and Johnson the primary weapons, the wideouts have been almost worthless in fantasy terms.

Kennison only had 24 yards in Miami last season.

Tight Ends: While Tony Gonzalez dropped down to only 63 yards last week after two games over 110 yards, he scored twice against the Rams. He had not scored since week one. As long as the Chiefs continue to win, there's no reason to deviate from the deadly Gonzalez/Johnson attack.

Gonzalez turned in seven catches for 67 yards in Miami last year.

Match Against the Defense: The Dolphins rushing defense has been above average this year but mainly because they rarely face any runners of note. They have only allowed one rushing score to an opposing runner this year but Johnson has been above the match-up lately. Expect another good game here that could turn big if the Chiefs can get an early lead and can just run most of the game.

Huard goes against a secondary that has always allowed at least one passing score every week despite facing quarterbacks like Losman, Collins and Carr. Four different quarterbacks have turned in two or more scores and most remain at or above 210 yards. Look for Gonzalez to score one here with moderate yardage. Kennison gets a good match-up that could result in a touchdown though it could easily end up with Parker or even back with Johnson.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 22 3 28 2 12 24
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 11 6 14 20 18 25


Miami Dolphins (2-6)
1 17-28 @PIT 10 --- KC
2 6-16 BUF 11 --- MIN
3 13-10 TEN 12 --- @DET
4 15-17 @HOU 13 --- JAX
5 10-20 @NE 14 --- NE
6 17-20 @NYJ 15 --- @BUF
7 24-34 GB 16 --- NYJ
8 Open Bye 17 --- @IND
9 31-13 @CHI - MON THU
MIA vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Joey Harrington 0 0 220,1
RB Ronnie Brown 60,1 40 0
TE Randy McMichael 0 30 0
WR Chris Chambers 0 50 0
WR Marty Booker 0 50,1 0
WR Wes Welker 0 40 0
PK Olindo Mare 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: Wow. The same team that could not beat the visiting Packers goes to Chicago and dismantles an undefeated team. After losing road games in Houston, New England and New York (Jets), the Dolphins found the right mixture for one week and hopefully spent the last seven days in jubilation. The offense has been improving this year but also had gone through some very soft defenses until last week. At 2-6, it cannot be considered anything more than the Bears having their first trash game of the year.

Quarterback: Joey Harrington had been no big upgrade from Daunte Culpepper until week seven when he ripped the Packers #32 pass defense for 414 yards and two scores. But he also had three interceptions and they lost the game. Last week in Chicago, Harrington only had 137 passing yards and two interceptions, but he threw a season high three touchdowns. The Dolphins as a team only had three passing scores through week six combined. Now Harrington has to prove that he can do it again - only without the constant multiple interceptions.

The Dolphins used both Sage Rosenfels and Gus Frerotte in the meeting with the Chiefs last year. They combined for 202 yards and one score.

Running Backs: There is apparently no middle ground with Ronnie Brown this year. After plodding through the first five games of the season with only one scoring game and never more than 90 rushing yards per week, Brown turned in 127 yards and a touchdown against the Jets - no big deal though since they have the worst rush defense in the NFL. He went back to his normal ways and only gained 59 yard son 15 carries against the Packers though he added 63 yards on five catches. Last week in his worst possible match-up, Brown ended with a career high 157 yards on 29 carries in Chicago. Brown changes from week to week and apparently is at his best only when the fantasy world benches him.

Ronnie Brown ran for 95 yards and one score on only eight rushes against the Chiefs last year.

Wide Receivers: Chris Chambers has scored a touchdown in exactly every other game this year and since it was time, he had one score in Chicago with his 58 yards on five catches. Chambers has scored four times this year but has never had more than 60 yards in any game for 2006. Marty Booker also scored last week but that was only with three catches for 14 yards and even Wes Welker had his first ever NFL touchdown in Chicago last Sunday. It was that sort of surreal game. That success aside, the wideouts here still have only marginal fantasy value that cannot be relied on for more than around 50 yards per week.

Chambers had 88 yards and one score on only two catches against the Chiefs in 2005.

Tight Ends: Just when it seemed that Randy McMichael had undergone a rebirth with thee straight games over 70 yards, he only had one catch for 11 yards in Chicago. It cannot all be good.

McMichael only had 29 yards in the meeting with the Chiefs last year.

Match Against the Defense: Ronnie Brown faces a defense that has only allowed one runner to top 100 rushing yards (Parker) but that has given up four rushing touchdowns in the last couple of road games. Look for only moderate rushing yards here but with one score and enough receiving yards to give Brown nice fantasy value again this week.

Harrington goes against a secondary that has been very good this year against far better quarterbacks than Harrington. No opposing wideout has had more than 84 yards against the Chiefs this year thanks to good corner play and the Chiefs have been one of the best teams at shutting down tight ends so figure on McMichael having only moderate numbers at best. I like the chance for one passing score here and that most favors Booker.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM    QB   RB   WR   TE   PK  DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 18 21 14 17 25 17
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 7 18 26 3 17 20