FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT GUIDE

Nothing much to talk about here. Manning is simply the most productive and consistent quarterback over the nine seasons that he's played. His 4397 yards last year were only third best in his career and yet ranked second in the NFL last year. His 31 passing scores ranked #1 in the NFL for 2006 and yet he’s done better in two other seasons including setting the all-time passing touchdown record with 49 in a season. Manning enjoys all his skill position players returning this season with the same coaching staff and scheme and an offensive line that featured two Pro Bowl players.

The worst you get with Manning (who has never missed a game in nine years) is great and the best would just set yet another NFL record. Manning is as "slam dunk" as it gets for NFL quarterbacks. The only question is when your league makes sense to take him as the first quarterback drafted.

(+Upside) After coming off career high marks in 2005, Tom Brady ended last season with the lowest yardage since becoming a full-year starter in 2002. His "fall" still turned in 3529 yards and 24 touchdowns against only 12 interceptions. His worst year and he still tied for 4th most passing scores on the season. Brady has never had less than those 3529 passing yards last year or worse than 23 scores in a 16 game season.

What this season ushers in is all new optimism that Brady could once again reach a career best mark. He comes off the worst cast of receivers since coming to New England and now has the best of his career. In addition to Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney, the Patriots added Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker in the off season. The Patriot scheme was always hard to defend since it never relied on any one wideout. Now it has added Moss and Stallworth who were #1 wideouts on their prior team and Wes Welker. It’s a dangerous looking crew now and since the team opted to not directly replace Corey Dillon, there’s a good chance that those short rushing scores of previous year’s will now turn into passing touchdowns. Ben Watson is another year more experienced. The stage is set for the best passing year ever for Brady and in the past he’s had as many as 4110 yards and 28 touchdowns. And for one of the even more rare times, the Patriots passing schedule is easier than it has been in several seasons.

Despite tearing a couple of ligaments in his knee in the first round of the 2005 playoffs, Palmer was able to start the entire season last year and ended with a career high 4035 passing yards with 28 touchdowns. He never missed any time and ranked 5th best in passing yardage last year and 2nd best in touchdowns. Palmer has only been a starter for three years and has not only been productive, he threw for 60 touchdowns over the last two seasons with only 25 interceptions.

No need to over-analyze here. Palmer has been a top quarterback for the last two years and showed great resiliency in returning from a bad knee injury within seven months so that he never missed a regular season game. This offense is unchanged other than the absence of Chris Henry for the first eight weeks. That isn’t a positive, but with Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Palmer will make up the difference in other ways. The Bengals schedule is actually a bit lighter than last year anyway. Notable too is the tasty schedule during fantasy playoffs – STL, @SF and CLE.

After spending five years in San Diego where Brees had enough success to keep first round pick Philip Rivers on the bench for two seasons, he moved to New Orleans to take over a franchise that had completely imploded in 2005. The Saints brought on new HC Sean Payton and started shaking up the team which included getting rid of Donte Stallworth and keeping the aging Joe Horn. It looked like starting with humble beginnings but by the time it was over, Brees had led the Saints on one of the most dramatic turnarounds in NFL history. In his first season as a Saint with no apparent stars other than Horn, Brees ended the regular season with a career high 4418 passing yards (#1 in the NFL) and 26 touchdowns (#3) and only threw 11 interceptions. He took a bottom dwelling 3-13 team all the way to a 10-6 record and a NFC conference championship game. He topped 300 passing yards eight times and even threw for a head-spinning 510 yards against the Bengals.

Along the way, Brees connected with Marques Colston to create perhaps the greatest 7th round wideout in the history of the NFL. Drafting Reggie Bush game him yet another outlet and yet Brees had great games using so many different receivers that it’s impossible to argue that he alone was not the central key to the dramatic turnaround. He could have done more but the Saints clinched the division three weeks out and Brees only had 385 total yards over those final three games. He was on pace for a 4960 yard season.

Joe Horn has left but the Saints drafted Robert Meacham with their first pick in the draft to help replace him and kept all other receivers from 2006. The schedule is no more difficult than it was last year and likely will prove easier. This year everyone will see Brees coming, but how many will be able to stop him anyway?

Kitna’s first season with the Lions resulted in a mere 372 completions (#1 in the NFL) on 596 attempts (#2 in the NFL) for 4208 passing yards (#4 in the NFL). All this in his first season in the new offense while throwing every pass in every game for Detroit. He even added 156 yards and two rushing scores to add to his 21 passing touchdowns. Kitna threw 22 interceptions, but his ratio was only 27:1 for passes thrown – no difference than what any Martz offense produces. Bulger’s final two years in that system produced 32:1 and 34:1 with a far better offense around him. Kitna set a career high for passing yardage and turned in four 300 yard games in 2006.

2007 will include the ever-hyped Calvin Johnson to add to Roy Williams and Mike Furrey which can only improve the passing. Kevin Jones is still recovering from his foot injury last year but at least the Lions went out and picked up Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett as replacements as needed – bit of an upgrade from Arlen Harris and Aveion Cason. The only question revolving around Kitna was the drafting of Drew Stanton with the 2.11 pick as the 5th quarterback taken in April. Stanton was a local favorite of sorts coming from Michigan State but the complicated offense is far better off this year with Kitna rather than dumping the year’s fortunes with a rookie quarterback. The Lions are in a good spot to improve and starting a rookie QB makes no sense for this year. Barring an amazing training camp, Stanton won’t be a factor for 2007 in this pass-happy offense. Kitna gets head up what should be one of the best passing attacks in the league this year – just expect a few interceptions along the way.

The first year in Scott Linehan’s offense and Bulger’s level of play did change from his old Martz-days. He got better. In fact, he had career highs in completions (370), yards (4301) and touchdowns (24). Bulger ranked #2 in completions last year, #3 in passing yardage and #4 in passing touchdowns. All this and only eight interceptions. Yes, the change did not hurt him at all.

While Bulger had a few uncharacteristic clunkers in 2006 (142 yards in CAR and 137 yards in OAK without any scores), he still posted eight games over 300 yards – half the time he played. He also had seven efforts with two or more touchdown passes. What has made Bulger even better is using Steven Jackson as a receiver and finally having a dominating rushing game that must be respected. The Rams have also acquired Drew Bennett to replace the departed Kevin Curtis so there should be no reason for Bulger to have a lack of targets this season. Even Randy McMichael comes over to shore up the tight end spot. Not only does he have all this going for him, he also has the softest passing schedule in the league this year. Consider Bulger a very safe and productive pick at quarterback this season.

(-Risk) (+Upside) Donovan McNabb was having a career best season in 2006 when he had had averaged 307 passing yards and almost three touchdowns per week through the first seven games. After two uncharacteristically low games, he tore his ACL against the Titans in week 11 and was lost for the season. That makes three of the last five years with him getting injured and missing the rest of the season. He had surgery on the injury at the end of November and at the time; it was described as an "eight to twelve month" recovery time. That span puts him ready either at the start of training camp all the way until after mid-season. McNabb has been throwing the ball in the off-season and rehabbing the knee. The expectations according to HC Andy Reid is for him to be ready by the start of training camp.

The 31-year old quarterback has missed 13 games over the last two years and hasn’t started all 16 games since 2003. Prior to the addition of Terrell Owens, McNabb had been turning in around 3200 passing yards and 17 passing scores per year but shot up to 3875 in his career best with 31 touchdowns (2004). But he surprised in 2006 when Owens was gone and yet McNabb was every bit as effective as he had ever been – if not better. And once again, he suffered a major injury and missed the rest of the season. That no doubt was a factor when the Eagles drafted Kevin Kolb with their 2.04 draft pick. The move shocked McNabb and he publicly speculated as to what the team was doing but has since made nice with Reid. McNabb has a very nice passing schedule this year and the Eagles picked up Kevin Curtis so the receiving crew is improved from last year. No one questions if McNabb has the talent and ability to be a top quarterback, the question is if he’ll be there for you when you need him most. If you draft McNabb, expect to get excellent results from him. And then spend your next pick on the guy you want to fall back on when McNabb gets hurt. Just to make it more complicated, the addition of Kolb makes getting the back-up in Philadelphia even harder since A.J. Feeley should remain the #2 for at least the early part of the season but at some point in the future, Kolb will be given a chance as well.

08-17-07 Update: McNabb jumps up one spot with reports that he is going to play in the preseason game tonight and is very near 100%. That is no guarantee that he won't get hurt again but at least he looks good to go until that happens.

(+Upside) After a rather inglorious end to last season, Romo will be the week one starter for the first time in his five years in the NFL. On the plus side, he is dating Carrie Underwood. On the down side, the last time anyone saw him play was when he bobbled a simple field goal snap and Dallas lost their only game in the playoffs. That last play bobble shouldn’t obscure what Romo did accomplish last year.

Romo was the starter in Dallas for only the final 11 weeks and yet posted 2903 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. Extrapolate that over a 16 game season and it equates to 4222 yards (which would have ranked 4th best in the NFL) and 27 touchdowns (3rd best in the NFL). In the span of those 11 games, he had three 300 yard games and six games with at least two scores. His three principle receivers are back again this year and while Owens and Glenn are aging, they combined for 2227 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2007 with the help of Romo. The Cowboys will have a new head coach in Wade Phillips but his interest will remain more on the defensive side. A new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett is a wildcard of sorts, but the team added no new offensive skill players and will return the exact same cast from 2006. It’s a risk to assume Romo will be just as effective in 2007 since the offense will undergo scheme change of unknown proportions, but he has even more upside for fantasy drafters since his totals from last year were only 11 games and many will last remember “the bobble" instead of just what he accomplished in his first season as a Cowboys starter. Nice upside here and should be a bit undervalued in many drafts.

(+Upside) After sitting on his hands for two years, Rivers finally took the reins last season and turned in an impressive 3388 yards with 22 touchdowns against only nine interceptions. This was made even more impressive since it happened while LaDainian Tomlinson was setting all-time NFL records for rushing touchdowns. The Chargers not only had the highest scoring offense in the NFL for 2006, they were 65 points ahead of the #2 team. While any team owning the record holder for rushing scores will have an easier time throwing the ball, Rivers made good on his debut with a nice ratio of passes to touchdowns and one of the lowest interception rates in the league last year.

Rivers should improve at least incrementally this year as well unless Tomlinson goes completely nuts again with the rushing scores and yards. Norv Turner replaces Marty Schottenheimer and while that has never been a boon for a team’s defense, Turner knows offenses as well as anyone and promoted running backs coach Clarence Selmon to offensive coordinator to help keep the continuity of the league’s premier offense from last year. Keenan McCardell is gone but not much was lost since Vincent Jackson is stepping up and the team is already excited about their first round pick Craig Davis. Eric Parker remains and of course, Antonio Gates can be relied on to easily take the #1 tight end in the league. The biggest problem for Rivers will be a very tough schedule that matches against not only the AFC West with Denver and Oakland, but also with the AFC East and NFC Central with Chicago.

Leinart enters his second year and, yet again, has to learn a new offense. Gone is pass-happy Denny Green and now the team falls under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt from the Steelers. That will signal a toning down of the passing game to some degree but Whisenhunt is not likely to ignore it either. The Cards were already transitioning last year with Edgerrin James and that focus on the rushing game will continue to increase.

Leinart was given 11 starts last season with good results for a rookie. But even in that system he only had two efforts that exceeded 235 yards and he passed for around one score per game. Leinart will be able to run the Cards new offense but it may take some time to once again get and the rushing game is going to get more focus. Expect a better, more effective and experienced Leinart but that likely won’t equate into many more fantasy points.

Big Ben may have seemed to plod through a bad season in 2006, but the reality is that he set career marks for completions (280), passing yards (3515) and touchdown passes (18). Of course he also led the NFL in interceptions with 23 – double the amount of either of his first two seasons. That he played at all last year was remarkable given his face plant into a windshield before the season started. He also had an appendectomy when the season started and later had a concussion. It was not the best of years for the Roethlisberger and his insurance agents would agree.

This means after three years, he still has not played a full 16 game season though he only missed one game last year. This year enters a new era with Bill Cowher gone and Mike Tomlin takes over with Bruce Arians as offensive coordinator who was promoted up after being the WR coach for the last three years in Pittsburgh. This is not the first stint for Arians as the OC since he had that job for three years in Cleveland before coming to Pittsburgh. Arians obviously already has a tie to the passing game in Pittsburgh which is a positive for Roethlisberger. But in Cleveland, Arians used Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb all three years and no Arians quarterback had more than 3040 yards or 18 touchdowns with him as the OC. The Steelers should be more talented than the Browns squad, but so far Arians has yet to show he can be successful in the OC role. That at least indicates that Roethlisberger and the rest of the offense have a little more risk than in previous seasons.

With his penchant for at least getting nicked up and never having more than 3500 passing yards or18 touchdowns, Roethlisberger cannot be considered as more than a back-up fantasy quarterback. If he can have as good of luck this season as he had bad last year, then he’d be the #1 QB for 2006. Figure him just for a bye week filler for this year.

08-15-07 Update: Roethlisberger gets a small bump up after looking very impressive in brief playing time in the first preseason game. The new offense by OC Bruce Arians seems to be coming together better than anticipated but has the personnel unlike Arians had in previous NFL stints.

(-Risk) (+Upside) Nothing like being the Offensive Rookie of the Year to put a stamp of legitimacy on Vince Young. After taking over in week four, Young extended the Titans winless streak to 0-5 before turning the franchise around and ending the season 8-3 which included a one point loss to Baltimore. When Young took over, the Titans had no wide receivers of any note and ended the season the same way. He won games by mixing wideouts and tight ends with plenty of his own rushing to make the difference. He only threw for 2199 yards and 12 touchdowns against 13 interceptions but he gained 552 rushing yards and scored an NFL high seven touchdowns via the run. That was almost double the #2 rushing scorer who was, amazingly enough, Peyton Manning. Michael Vick only had three.

Young’s rushing yards and scores made him a top ten quarterback in many leagues though he offered more inconsistency since his best passing yardage of the year was only 249 yards and nine of his thirteen starts ended with less than 200 passing yards. And yet he was only a rookie playing for a team that has a wideout crew as weak as any other team. What is troubling is that the Titans did not use free agency to acquire a veteran this year and allowed both Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade to leave. Once again, the Titans are entering the season with a slew of inexperienced wideouts in the hope that one or more of them step up and exceed reasonable expectations. Complicating this more was allowing Travis Henry to leave and relying only on LenDale White, the very inexperienced rookie Chris Henry and bringing back Chris Brown. That’s not an equation for improvement but Young already took the team on his back in 2006 and ended a more than respectable 8-8 on the season. The Titans have a very tough schedule this year which will challenge Young again but that could end up with him running for more yardage this season. The worst of all worlds here is that neither White nor Henry make defenses respect the rushing game and the receivers show their inexperience and make Young a marked man for the entire defense.

Young's value during 2006 was his rushing yardage and scores and while he'll no doubt need to run again this year, expect his touchdown total to decrease. The best comparison for this is how Michael Vick's first full season saw him score eight rushing touchdowns but it was not until three years later he got as high as six scores again. Last year Vick had 1039 rushing yards but only two scores. Defenses adjust to what the strength of the offense is and that will once again be Young taking off on a run. With lesser receivers than in 2006, more effort will be placed on keeping Young out of the endzone.

08-20-07 Update: After already being concerned that the TEN offense would struggle this year, two preseason games have done nothing to suggest that is not true. Young has to drop a couple of spots in the rankings because his offense looks worse than last year.

Favre remains in the news but for the last couple of years, it’s mostly been in the offseason about him retiring or requesting a trade from his beloved Packers. There’s really only one reason that the 38-year old Favre is still playing – NFL records. He only needs 136 pass attempts to pass Dan Marino for #1 (8359). He only needs seven touchdowns to pass Dan Marino (421). And he only needs two more career wins to surpass John Elway for #1 (149). If he can throw for 3862 yards, then he can eclipse Marino (61,362) for the last QB category for all-time records. He’s playing in 2007 to stick his name at the top of virtually every career passing record category.

No wonder he was upset when Randy Moss did not come to town. He has to try to at least replicate last year in order to get all the records. Instead, the Packers elected to stand pat in free agency and even allowed tight end David Martin to leave. If the Packers could give him anything above an average set of NFL wideouts and tight ends, he may have retired after last year. Favre’s skills have diminished at least a little and the offense around him makes it hard to determine just how much. In his rush to get records last year, he threw a career high 613 passes (#1 in the NFL) but only completed a career low 56%. He had 6.34 yards per attempt – another career low. His 18 touchdowns were tied with the lowest of his career – back in 1992 in his first year as a starter.

The fact that his wideout crew has not really improved and his tight ends are worse means that Favre cannot be considered as a fantasy starter anymore. He corrected his 29 interceptions from 2005 with just 18 last year but he needs to average 241 yards per game to get the most challenging mark – the all-time most passing yards. And with Ahman Green gone, he just may need to pass that much again this year. His final home game comes in week 17 against the Lions which would be a nice place to set the final record and a fitting way for Favre to say goodbye to the game.

Hasselbeck had a down year in 2006 when he only threw for 2442 yards and 18 touchdowns but he missed weeks eight through 11 when he sprained his right MCL. Adjust that for a 16 game season and Hasselbeck would have turned in 3250 passing yards and 24 touchdowns – almost exactly in line with his average over the three previous seasons (a little lower on yardage). Hasselbeck had averaged 24 touchdowns per season with about 3500 yards for those three years.

Hasselbeck also had a broken finger on his non-throwing hand last season and required off-season surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder on his non-throwing arm. He has been ahead of schedule and was already throwing in minicamp and impressed everyone with his velocity only three months after the surgery. He is expected to be completely recovered in time for training camp.

The big difference this year will be the loss of Darrell Jackson who has been his primary target since Hasselbeck became the starting quarterback in 2001. Deion Branch is moving over to the flanker spot now vacant and D.J. Hackett will assume the split end role. Hasselbeck also lost tight end Jeremy Stevens who was replaced by the aging Marcus Pollard. But the Seahawks have not picked up any new wideouts and will look to get improvement from the group including Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram who is healthy again. Seattle has a soft passing schedule as it traditionally does but the players involved will be in new roles. That sheds a little more risk to this year and the decline of the dominating rushing game yields less consistency for Hasselbeck’s numbers since his need to throw can be great but it can also be well known by the defense. He makes a great back-up quarterback but due to his risk this year, he’s only a starter in a very deep league.

While Manning did not take the next step up last year, he held onto roughly the same production as 2004. His 24 touchdowns tied for fourth best in the league last year but his yardage total dropped to only 3244 from 3762 in 2005 despite completing a career high 301 pass attempts. That dropped his yards per catch from 12.8 down to 10.7 last year. This reflected what the Giants already knew – they had no deep threat and drafting Sinorice Moss did not resolve that problem.

Even more puzzling was the drop that Manning had during the season. In the first four games, he averaged 287 yards with 2.3 touchdowns and appeared to be taking the final step up but for the rest of the season he only managed 175 yards per game with 1.5 touchdowns. Those final twelve games only had three efforts exceed 200 yards – hardly the level of an elite quarterback. This season Manning won’t have Tiki Barber there to turn in his usual 390 or so touches per game so this year is all on Manning with Brandon Jacobs taking his first starting role. On the plus side, the Giants have an easier schedule this year and one of the softer ones in the NFL. On the negative – Can Manning step up in this offense playing in blustery New York even if he indeed has the skills?

Manning’s level of play presents too much risk to consider him a fantasy starter this year but he does make a very solid fantasy back-up. There’s no change to the passing game other than the rookie Steve Smith and the fact that Amani Toomer is yet another year older. The loss of Barber may result in a bigger need to pass but so far Manning has lacked the consistency to suggest he will be able to take advantage of it. It is also troublesome that the Giants have failed to resolve their problems at the critical left offensive tackle position.

(+Upside) Delhomme comes off his worst season as a starter when he only threw for 2825 yards in 2006 – his previous low was 3219 in his first season. Delhomme also threw fewer passes (431) last year than in any other year as the Panthers quarterback with a 61% completion rate (the highest of his career). His 11 interceptions was also a career low. The Panthers as a team imploded last year and the offensive coordinator was fired. Jeff Davidson comes over from Cleveland though he spent most of his career in New England as a tight ends and offensive line coach.

Placing the blame for 2006 on Delhomme would be at least partially inaccurate if not entirely wrong. Nothing worked in Carolina while several players left injured – including offensive linemen. Davidson is ushering in a new offense that has excited the players unlike last year when players like Steve Smith openly criticized the play calling. The loss of Keyshawn Johnson will be compensated for by Drew Carter and eventually rookie Dwayne Jarrett if all goes according to plan. New for this year will be more slant routes for Smith to turn into long gainers and more screen passes to the running backs. Unlike 2006, the Panthers appear re-energized going into the season and Delhomme could be a very nice value in fantasy drafts from teams who only remember last year. His two seasons previous to last year averaged 3600 yards and 26 touchdowns. The Panthers schedule this year is also much lighter than in 2006.

(+Upside) After sitting on his hands for the first 25 games of his career, Campbell was finally given the reins in week 11 last year and his performance locked down the starter position from now on. Campbell only had 1297 yards in those seven games (185 yard average) and he only had a completion rate of 53%. But behind those numbers are two even more telling statistics. Campbell threw for at least one score in every game as a starter, turning in two touchdowns three times. And he only threw interceptions in four of the seven games. Granted – it was hardly an eye-popping set of stats overall but for a player who had never thrown a single NFL pass, it has to be considered a success.

The Redskins declined to upgrade any positions in the offseason but Campbell has plenty to use already with Santana Moss, Chris Cooley and a solid rushing game to support him. Campbell has gained the confidence of his coaches and teammates and will take the next step in 2007 to becoming a solid NFL quarterback. The Skins have an average passing schedule but will be getting Clinton Portis back who will only help to soften the opposing defenses. Campbell is only a fantasy back-up at this point, but he is progressing as well as could be hoped for and gains more value in keeper leagues.

(+Upside) Smith took a much needed step up in 2006 when he threw for 2890 yards and 16 touchdowns against 16 interceptions – a bit better than the 1:11 ratio he had on TD’s versus interceptions as a rookie. Playing in the new offense installed by Norv Turner, he started out well with three straight games over 233 yards but then only had two more efforts eclipse the 200 yard mark again last year. He threw for a score in 12 of the 16 games but only three times did he have more than just that one touchdown. He ended with a 74.8 QB rating but that was almost twice that of his rookie season.

It could be argued (and should) that Smith accomplished that much with one of the weakest wideout crews in the league and even his much hyped tight end Vernon Davis missed about half the year injured. He did not have much to work with which should not be the case for 2007 since the team has dumped Antonio Bryant and picked up Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie, along with having a healthy Davis ready for his second season. The departure of Turner is troublesome, but the QB coach from 2006 – Jim Hostler – has been promoted to offensive coordinator to keep the continuity of the same system.

San Francisco has one of the softest passing schedules in the league for 2007 and there’s a vastly upgraded set of wideouts (not hard to do). Smith should take another step up this year but it still won’t merit him becoming a starter for a fantasy team. An intriguing back-up perhaps, but he still needs to show more in order to be taken in the first half of any draft.

(-Risk) The patience of the Chicago coaching staff paid off last year when Rex Grossman finally remained healthy for the entire season and ended with 3193 yards and 23 touchdowns – only six quarterbacks had more passing scores. The Bears advanced to the Super Bowl so there is absolutely no question this year as to who the quarterback will be.

On the downside though, Grossman threw 20 interceptions which ranked third in the league behind only Kitna (22) and Roethlisberger (23). And he averaged 231 yards over the first 8 games but only managed 187 yards in the second half of the season (excluding week 17). Grossman started the season out on a hot streak with his first four games totaling eight touchdowns and averaging 265 yards per game with only three interceptions. But Grossman’s performance down the stretch diminished significantly, propped up only by 339 yard game he had against the Buccaneers in week 15. That was the only game in the final seven weeks where he topped 200 passing yards.

Grossman gets the benefit of playing one of the softest passing schedules in the NFL this year but with a dominating defense and what promises to be no less than adequate rushing game, his outlook remains only average this year. The addition of top rookie tight end Greg Olsen should help, but likely more in future years than in 2007. And his injury history did not haunt him in 2006 but cannot be ignored.

(+Upside) Cutler finally got the nod in week 13 last year and his performance was genuinely impressive. He threw for two scores in each of his first four games and ended with nine passing scores in five games – with only five interceptions. In his brief stint last year, he only twice managed more than 200 passing yards but that touchdown to interception ratio from a rookie is almost unbelievable. Before expecting Cutler to generate 30+ touchdowns in 2007, take into account that his five game body work came in games against SEA, @SD, @ARZ, CIN and SF. That’s against defenses that ranked 17th, 14th, 30th, 31st and 27th against passing yards. Not the toughest of foes but just as pertinent – this was a rookie quarterback thrown in as the starter without a single pass thrown prior to starting.

When Cutler played, instead of honing in on Javon Walker, he connected mostly with fellow rookie tight end Tony Scheffler who had only six catches for 67 yards in the first 11 games. In just five starts with Cutler, he totaled 12 catches for 219 yards and four touchdowns. Javon Walker only scored twice with Cutler and averaged just 46 yards per game. Walker was turning in 78 yards per game with Jake Plummer. This is not to say that Cutler is not developing well, just that he still has learning to do after only five starts. He was surprising with a 71 yard score to Brandon Marshall and was inconsistent with his wideouts who never had more than 84 yards in any game with him. Look for Cutler to continue to improve, but realize his impressive nine scores in five games were against softer secondaries and he’s not a finished product yet. But he’s undeniably on the right track. An even bigger obstacle will be one of the toughest passing schedules of any NFL team this year as well.

After spending three years waiting for the couple of games per year that Byron Leftwich would always miss, Garrard took over in week eight of 2006 thanks to Leftwich leaving the stage extra early in the season. While he never had more than 249 passing yards and topped 200 yards only four of the ten games, he threw for 10 scores and had interceptions in only four of the weeks. Garrard also brings mobility to the quarterback position with often five or six rushes per game. Had Garrard performed better in his ten game debut, he might have taken the reins from Leftwich permanently but it didn’t happen.

Garrard once again provides back-up for the less than durable Leftwich and that usually means a couple of starts per year. But Garrard doesn’t do anything special when he does play, so he’s not even worthy of being an insurance pick for the Leftwich owner.

08-31-07 Update: The Jaguars named Garrard as the starting quarterback today and he takes the reins from Byron Leftwich. In fantasy terms this is an improvement if only because Garrard is a very good runner as well as passer and had 250 rushing yards just last year in just 10 games played.

They said it could not be done and Pennington proved them wrong. He really can play a full season without ending up on injured reserve. Pennington exceeded the lofty 13 game season mark when he finished out the 2006 season with 3352 yards and 17 touchdowns against 16 interceptions – pretty middle of the road after waiting for seven years for him to finish a season intact. This too despite the Jets having a revolving door in the backfield last year. Thomas Jones comes over from the Bears to offer some stability there and a decent rushing game will help but Pennington hasn’t shown yet that he is worthy of much more than being a fantasy back-up QB taken because you waited too long on the position.

McNair comes off his first season in Baltimore and he ended with just an average sort of year. McNair threw for 3050 yards and only 16 touchdowns during the 14 games that he played – about the same as his last year in Tennessee. His 119 rushing yards were his lowest since 1995 and that includes 2004 when he only played in eight games. At the age of 34, McNair may have improved the passing in Baltimore from 22nd best in the league to 11th last year, but most of that came from Boller throwing for 485 yards and five scores in just two games. Otherwise, the production just wasn’t appreciably higher.

The receivers will be the same again this year so there’s no real reason to expect that the Ravens will have a much better passing game in 2007. The only difference is that Mark Clayton has one more year of experience and the rest are just one year older. Expect just an average year again in 2007 that could actually be a little lower since the addition of Willis McGahee should have a positive impact on the rushing game.

Once Garcia left San Francisco after 2003, he had two very mediocre seasons in CLE and DET before landing in Philadelphia last year. Ends up that was a good move by the Eagles coaching staff since Donovan McNabb suffered yet another season ending injury and Garcia started six games. While he had one 312 yard effort, he only had two others around 240 yards and the remaining three were very low – 189, 140 and 164 yards. But he threw at least one score in each game and half his starts resulted in two or more touchdowns. The Eagles opted to let Garcia leave since his impressive play made him a more desirable commodity on the free agent market. The 37-year old Garcia signed a two-year deal with the Buccaneers for an undisclosed amount.

While Chris Simms was the starter in 2006 before getting injured, there’s no guarantee he returns in that role. Garcia and Simms will battle in training camp for the starting role. Simms would seem to have an upper hand since he is familiar with the offense, but the Bucs are impressed with how quickly Garcia picked it up in the spring. He has spent all his time either at the team’s training facility or at home studying. Garcia has to make up ground in order to beat out Simms but so far he’s been doing exactly that. Simms busiest year was 2005 when he started 10 games but only had 2035 yards and ten scores. Garcia just did that much in six games last year.

The reality here is that the winner of the starter role still likely won’t merit anything more than being a very deep fantasy back-up. If you wait far too long to grab your back-up quarterback, make certain of the situation here before taking either Simms or Garcia. And know that there’s no guarantee that either would play the entire season anyway.

The Texans finally tired of waiting for David Carr to come around and sent him packing to the Panthers while acquiring Schaub for his first chance as a starting quarterback. Schaub languished behind Vick for three seasons, only starting three games in that time. His real claim to fame came in 2005 when he played against the Patriots and threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. He’s been a hot property for two years but the Falcons retained him in 2005. New HC Bobby Petrino wanted to stick with Michael Vick and Schaub was allowed to leave.

In ever so brief action, Schaub has been impressive and even made it seem like the Falcons had wide receivers. He signals the change in the Texans under HC Gary Kubiak who tried to use inherited pieces in 2006 and now is turning the soil and starting over. Schaub is paired with the talented Andre Johnson but the rest of the wideout crew is hardly distinguished – the #2 spot may not be decided until the end of training camp. The Texans also have a tough passing schedule and Schaub will need the Texans to improve their pass protection from past years as one of the worst. 2006 saw them rise to 24th for sacks allowed in the NFL (this was an accomplishment) but many of those sacks also stemmed from Carr holding onto the ball too long. Then again – Schaub won’t have any real difference in the receivers that Carr had last year. His biggest advantage here – he has almost nowhere to go but up after the Texans only threw for 14 touchdowns last year.

The 37-year old Green heads to his fifth NFL team after finally becoming a full-time starter from year to year in Kansas City. Green had been one of the most productive passers from 2003 to 2005 when he threw for over 4000 yards and averaged almost 23 touchdowns per season. But in 2006 with a new head coach in Herman Edwards, the change in offensive scheme took a toll on Green's production. In his eight games last year before his injury, he had only thrown for 1342 yards and seven touchdowns with a 74.1 QB rating.

Green did not suddenly become an ineffective quarterback in 2006 after three years of outstanding yardage. The scheme changed and brought him down with it. Green suffered a severe concussion and even on his return suffered a sprained ankle later. The Chiefs are embarking on a youth movement and a 37-year old quarterback doesn't fit that plan. The Chiefs and Fins finally came to agreement in June to send him to Miami.

Miami is already installing a new offense by ex-SD offensive coordinator Cam Cameron but instead of LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates, there's only David Martin and Ronnie Brown. And there'll be a learning curve. The addition of Green should be a big help to Chris Chambers but it could almost work against him since the Fins released Randy McMichael and did not get any #2 wideout to help draw attention away from Chambers who will be no less the focus of the secondary. If the rookie Ted Ginn Jr. can stretch the defense, then Chambers may improve more signicantly but an aging quarterback with a too recent severe concussion coupled with a new offense being installed makes for a tall order to expect more than average numbers from Green this year.