FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT GUIDE

What’s left to say about a player that rushed for 28 touchdowns, caught three scores and even threw for two more. All this while being the #1 rusher in the NFL with 1815 yards and catching 56 passes for 508 yards. This was not the “guy of the year" to draft, he had the best season of all time in fantasy terms. And he only turns 28 this summer so he has several seasons of high production remaining. He’s an obvious first pick in every fantasy draft and anyone who skips him must be in collusion with the team drafting second. Even prior to his record season, Tomlinson had been rushing for 17 or 18 scores the previous two years with at least 1800 total yards.

Weird things happen when a team shifts their offensive focus from pass happy to a balanced attack. Both the rushing and passing evidently improve. Jackson had a solid 2005 campaign with 254 carries for 1046 yards and eight touchdowns with an added 43 catches for 320 yards and two more scores. That was merely a precursor of what was to come since Jackson was allowed to be a full-time, heavy use back last year and responded with 346 carries for 1528 yards (5th best in the NFL), ran for 13 touchdowns (tied for 4th) and also caught 90 passes (#1 among RB’s) for 806 yards (also #1) and three more scores. By the time everything is rung up, Jackson had 2334 total yards (also #1) and scored 16 touchdowns (#3). And that was in the first season of the new Linehan-inspired offense.

Oh yes, and he only turns 24 this summer. Hard to believe 23 teams in 2004 had someone else in mind for their first round draft pick. The scary part here is that once the offense was coming together later in the 2006 season, Jackson got even better. In the final three weeks, he gained a total of 419 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns and had 126 receiving yards with two more scores. He was the only way to beat the Tomlinson guy last year and it all came at precisely the right time. St. Louis will have a slightly tougher rushing schedule this year but Jackson’s role in the passing game merely shifts how he hurts opponents. The Rams did draft Brian Leonard who may play fullback and be a back-up for Jackson, but he’s actually about the exact same size as Jackson so there’s no need to make him a complementary back. There’s no reason to ever let Jackson slide past the third pick in any fantasy draft this summer and if the league gets reception points, it’ll be pretty hard to let him get past second.

Johnson entered 2006 with some question marks because of a shifting offensive line and a new offense ushered in by HC Herman Edwards. By the time 2006 was over, the Chiefs had lost their starting quarterback for most of the year and had their new back-up Michael Bennett also miss considerable time with hamstring and ankle injuries. That meant the offense turned even more to Johnson who carried the ball for an NFL record 416 times. No one had ever had more than 410. Johnson gained 1789 yards and averaged 4.3 yards per carry. He ranked #1 in carries, #2 in rushing yardage, #3 in total yardage for a running back (2199) and was #2 in total touchdowns (19). Were it not for LaDainian Tomlinson’s monster year, Johnson would be all the talk for 2007.

The Chiefs lost G Will Shields and that makes two Pro Bowlers gone now but the Chiefs remain optimistic that their line will not suffer. They added LT Damion McIntosh on the first day of free agency while John Welbourne will shift from RT to RG to take Shields place. The line will be different but the strong rushing game should not take too much of a hit.

That made it two straight seasons over 1700 rushing yards for Johnson and 40 touchdowns scored in that time. Johnson added 41 receptions for 410 yards in 2006 and Herman Edward’s way of limiting Johnson to keep him healthy is to evidently throw him the ball more instead of hand it off. The Chiefs want to use their tailbacks more in the passing game and with Damon Huard or potentially Brodie Croyle under center, it is an excellent idea that should prove productive.

The Chiefs have a softer rushing schedule this year and the new offense is in its second year. Johnson’s 416 carries will scare off some who remember that Jamal Anderson ran 410 times and imploded the next year with a blown knee and eventually a career but James Wilder had 407 carries for 1544 yards in 1984 and came back with 365 for 1300 the next year. Eric Dickerson averaged 366 carries for his first four years and that was with two games missed. But – he did miss seven games the next year. Johnson has only had two years of notable carries in his career and is only 27 years old. The offense will revolve around him and he has been durable so far. Add in the proposed increase in receptions for 2007 and there’s no reason to let him slide past the #3 pick in the draft.

07-27-20 Update: Johnson drops two spots out of tier one because of his continuing contract situation. He has already not shown up for camp and somehow Priest Holmes has been cleared to play and could be in the mix here. This is the worst of all situations - a potential #1 fantasy football player that may not even play this year. There are rumors of potential trades. Johnson is adamant that he is worthy of Tomlinson money and the Chiefs are adamant that he is not. This could get worse before it gets better. Johnson's potential if great, obviously, but his risk now makes him very hard to draft and yet hard to pass by. Expect him to move more in the rankings.

08-20-07 Update: The holdout continues and the closer all the fantasy drafts get, the more risky is it to take Johnson too early. He could sign at any time before the first game and be good to go this year - and a nice value for the drafter. But there is no guarantee to it and spending a first round pick should not make you cross your fingers.

08-21-07 Update: And he signs his six-year deal and is safe - finally - to draft.

In his rookie season, Gore shared with Kevan Barlow and though he only had 128 carries, he gained 613 yards for a healthy 4.8 yard rushing average. That showing made the 49ers comfortable dumping Barlow and going with Gore as the starting back when the new offense from Norv Turner was installed in 2006. Gore richly rewarded the move, running 313 times for 1695 yards (3rd best in the NFL) and scoring eight times. All this for a team that did not have a feared passing game to prevent constant eight man fronts. Gore finished 2006 with a 5.4 yard rushing average – 4th best in the NFL and the best considering only 300+ carries backs. Last year Gore was the 49ers offense and yet few could stop him.

Gore turned in nine games over 100 rushing yards and three of those went for more than 150 yards. He also added 61 catches (4th best again) for 485 yards and one more score. That’s 2180 total yards for a team that had no other running back or receiver with more than 733 yards of offense. Considering total yardage, Gore only had six games that failed to reach at least 100 total yards and he topped the 150 yard mark eight times with receiving added in. With the passing offense almost certain to improve, Gore’s 2007 is shaping up to be another strong year except for two possible factors.

The 49ers will be playing a tougher schedule this year though Gore still had big games against CHI (120 yards) and DEN (185 yards) – that may not matter much. The more intriguing aspect is that HC Mike Nolan has said that he wants to limit Gore’s carries this year to help preserve him. Gore had major surgery done on both shoulders and knees in his past and after giving him a four year extension worth $28 million over the next five seasons, the 49ers reasonably want to protect their investment. They gave him a guarantee for $14 million. As scary a notion as that may be to Gore owners, take into account that he has dropped five pounds and will play lighter after LaDainian Tomlinson shared with him that it will help his durability and help keep him fresh. Also consider that almost every coach with a big-time stud running back says the same and when the games are decided by how well the back plays, they pretty much always end up with just as big of a season. Gore wants a 2000 yards season –perhaps optimistic – but even with Nolan’s idea of limiting Gore, there is no one else to turn to anywhere near his ability. Limiting carries is a great notion looking at a season but calling plays each game is all about what will help them win. One caveat here - Gore opens the season with games @PIT and BAL in the first five weeks - that will likely cause a slower start.

(-Risk) (+Upside) The rookie Addai turned in a great first season with 226 carries for 1081 yards and seven touchdowns. That was a record itself since Addai broke the 1000 yard threshold and yet never technically started a single game. Dominic Rhodes ran for 641 yards on 187 carries himself and he was always the first back in – despite Addai having more carries. And Addai played well as a receiver, recording 40 catches for 325 yards and one more score. As impressive as that performance was, it is notable that he gained 171 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a single game when the Eagles showed up in week 12. Otherwise, he only had one other 100 rushing game thanks to sharing with Rhodes so much.

Now Rhodes has left for Oakland and the Colts have not acquired a new runner to replace him. The primary back-up is DeDe Dorsey who does not have a carry in his two NFL seasons. James Mungro may be back after losing last year thanks to a torn knee ligament. This is all pertinent because while HC Tony Dungy continues to talk about a committee backfield, the reality is that he has very little to use outside of Addai unless someone is added. And even then – how much would a new player figure in? Addai is the clear starter and the question to be answered by the end of training camp is if he will remain part of a committee with some yet unnamed other back or if he is allowed an "Edgerrin James" role where he takes the full load with very little left over for other players. Addai played well as a rookie but his success came with rarely carrying more than 15 times per game and trading off with Rhodes often. The opportunity is there for a great season but Addai still has yet to prove he can be a heavy-duty back. And the coaching staff repeated their desire for a committee approach again – they just have not determined who the other guy could be.

(-Risk) After leading the league with 1880 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2005, Alexander lost a couple of linemen and then suffered a nondisplaced fracture in the fourth metatarsal (cracked foot bone) and missed time from week four through ten until returning. He was less than effective in those first three games, gaining only 187 yards on 65 carries (2.9 YPC) and had another minimal game his first week back with only 37 yards on 17 carries. But then he ran 40 times for 200 yards against the Packers and never fell below 73 yards per effort the rest of the season. He ended with his worst season since becoming a starter in 2001.

Alexander’s foot is still an issue but he claims to feel no pain or experience any problems. He worked out with the team in minicamps despite the crack not being completely healed. Adding that into a still fluid situation on the offensive line drops Alexander’s upside this year but the Seahawks are happy with their left side of Pro Bowler Walter Jones and Rob Sims. The right side is where the training camp battles will be to determine the starters. Even ignoring his monster week 12 games, Alexander still averaged 94 yards per game for the last five weeks and scored four times. His 3.6 yards per carry was a huge drop from the 5.0 of 2005 though and Alexander may be even more needed with Darrell Jackson now with the 49ers and the passing game less stocked than before.

The loss of Steve Hutchinson is now old news and the Seahawks have been working to get the offensive line back up to form. Alexander’s foot still is not healed, but so far it does not appear to be a problem for him. More information should come out through training camp about his foot but Alexander is dropping in drafts thanks to his down year of 2006 and fears about his foot and offensive line. Hutchinson may be gone, but Alexander had 14 and 16 touchdowns in the two years before the guard became a Pro Bowl player. He still has little role in the passing game compared to other heavy use backs, but his penchant for double digit touchdowns is undeniable. He is one of the few backs out there with no questions about sharing the load or potentially losing his job to another player.

With Jerome Bettis gone last year, Parker quickly dispelled the notion that he was just a yardage back and not capable of the tougher goal line runs. He ended 2006 with 1494 rushing yards (6th best in the NFL) and 13 rushing touchdowns (tied for 4th best). He even added three more scores via receptions despite only catching 31 passes for 222 yards. Parker was the complete back with the ability to break the long gainers at any time.

The offense will be changing at least a bit this year with WR-coach Bruce Arians promoted up to offensive coordinator but that should not have a huge impact on Parker. Arians was the OC in Cleveland for three years and never had a running back gain more than 887 yards or score more than half a dozen times but he never had the offensive line of the Steelers or Willie Parker. One oddity to consider with Parker is the difference between his play at home or on the road. When he was at home, he turned in five games over 100 yards and averaged around 120 yards per game. On the road, he only averaged 68 rushing yards and that was with two 130 yard games in Carolina and Cincinnati. He had four road efforts with less than 50 rushing yards but only had that happen once at home (against BAL).

Parker’s role won’t change with the new coaches if only because he is clearly the most successful weapon that the Steelers have. The Steelers rushing schedule isn’t the best but then again it is really no different than last year. Parker moves down a notch or so in reception point leagues but remember that his fine 2006 season came when he was given the full-time starting role for the first time. Now that he has a year of experience, he may just smooth out that road rushing problem and be even better.

Three seasons as the starter, three seasons with exactly 12 touchdowns. For three seasons, he’s always had between 360 and 376 touches and 1433 to 1538 total yards. Now that’s consistency. Johnson turned in a career low 3.8 yards per rush in 2006 but that’s mostly to blame on two bad games against the Steelers and Ravens – which he faces twice every season. But Johnson just turns out very good seasons every year and there’s nothing this year that should impact that other than the addition of the rookie running back Kenny Irons. That move was mainly for depth and more a statement against Chris Perry than anything to worry about for Johnson. Even in Perry’s best season, he only had 61 carries for 279 yards and no rushing scores so Irons will only be battling Perry for the back-up spot and the chance to get a little relief play. Expect Johnson to turn in another solid year – so far he has never varied from being a good fantasy draft pick. He’ll never be the top rusher in the league and he may not win you a championship, but with his productive consistency, he’s about as reliable pick as you can make that will never hurt you.

08-24-07 Update: Moves up a nudge to respect his consistency and lack of risk each season. Johnson has looked sharp in camp and without rookie Kenny Irons around he is even safer.

(+Upside) Travis Henry signed a five-year contract with Denver that included $12 million in guaranteed money. Does that sort of coin suggest that RBBC in Denver is over? It should. Henry comes off a 270 carry, 1211 yard season with the Titans where he gained 4.5 yards per carry on a team with no running game otherwise. That was the third time in Henry’s career than he exceeded 1200 rushing yards in a season. In the three years that he was the clear starter all year, he averaged 10 rushing scores as well. Henry has always ran well enough on the Bills and Titans but now ends up with the Broncos who feature the best offense yet and more importantly – the best offensive line he will have ever ran behind.

The Denver backfield has routinely turned out 1900 rushing yards or more from the running backs the last several years and that was using backs like Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell, etc.. Henry has a far more accomplished resume than those players and now has been paid the big dollars by a team that has shown commitment to him. He turns 29 this year but has only played three full seasons as the primary ball carrier – he has plenty of tread left on the tires. In many drafts Henry will likely fall more than warranted by so many fantasy drafters burned in the past by Denver backs but the stars are aligned in this situation for Henry to have a good year. More importantly – the dollars are aligned as well. Henry also rotates out of the NFL’s substance abuse program in week three of this season as long as he remains clean, so he wouldn’t be exposed to a year suspension with his next violation.

Nothing like those injury reports. Westbrook sprained his foot in training camp and missed time until the season started. Then he had an inflamed knee that had him ride the injury report for a couple of weeks as questionable but he still played. He was held out week four and rumors were that he had a chronic problem and the season looked bleak to Westbrook owners. But magic happens evidently. Westbrook not only played the rest of the season but when McNabb went down injured, Westbrook suddenly became much more heavily used, running for an average of 20 carries per game over the final seven weeks of the season (excluding the meaningless final game). He had five games over 97 yards rushing. Adding in his receiving yards, he topped 100 total yards in all but three games last year. He set career marks in carries (240), rushing yards (1217) and catches (77). Prior to 2006, his best was only 177 carries for 812 yards.

The Eagles have a more challenging rushing schedule this year but that doesn’t impact Westbrook much since he is the premier pass-catching back over the last several years. He’ll always carry an injury risk since he’s never played a full 16 game season but he’s such an instrumental part of the Eagles attack that he’s always productive when playing – one way or another. The drafting of Tony Hunt could cut into his touchdown total but that’ll only keep him healthier for all those catches.

(+Upside) The Bears have finally chosen to get a payoff on their first round pick in 2005 and after two “sit there and shut-up" seasons, any of the bravado that led Benson to his lengthy holdout is gone. Benson supported Thomas Jones again last year and gained 647 yards with six touchdowns in 2006. What’s intriguing is that Benson gained 4.1 yards per carry in both his shortened seasons and now takes over a rushing attack that produced 1856 yards between he and Jones last year with a total of 12 touchdowns. Before you decide that it all belongs to Benson now, realize that required 454 carries – about 40 more than the NFL record for rushing attempts.

To Benson’s benefit, the Bears have their typically soft rushing schedule and will once again feature a defense that will often hold the score down and allow the rushing game to take over. Thomas Jones has left for New York and while Adrian Peterson remains, this will be a heavy load season for Benson. Peterson has never had more than 76 carries in a season and that was pumped up by 24 rushes in a single game when Jones was out in 2005. This is Benson’s big opportunity only two years later than he thought it would come. The schedule is good, the depth chart is kind and the Bears like to run. Benson spent his entire life as a heavily-used running back so stepping up this year only returns him to a role he is used to playing.

(-Risk) (+Upside) Maroney comes off a rookie season that started with a bang – rushing 60 times for 294 yards in the first four games with three touchdowns scored. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry for the first month but then only had 451 yards on 115 carries for the rest of the season (3.9 YPC). He was held out in weeks 14 and 15 for what was termed a back injury that existed for much of the season. Herein lies the problem with Maroney – he has been injured before and he plays for the Patriots so there will be almost no reliable way to know how or even if he will play week to week.

Maroney is now the starter in New England with the departure of Corey Dillon and that should herald a big season for him given that the Pats have rushed for 15 or more touchdowns for many seasons (20 last year). Maroney only had six rushing scores in 2006. There is no doubt that he has the physical tools to get the job done, the question is will he always be able to use them and will he end up killing your fantasy team because of the deceptive nature that is the Pats injury report. You can almost guarantee that he will be on the injury report every week. Maroney was reported, ever so briefly, to have undergone offseason shoulder surgery that found “significant damage" and that was actually his “back" injury. The Pats would not confirm if Maroney has been taking part in the off-season conditioning program.

Maroney also suffered from torn rib cartilage and a minor knee sprain during the season which impacted his production that started so well. His injuries extended into the playoffs as well since he only averaged 2.8 yards per carry on his 31 postseason carries. An issue with Maroney is that he is a very tough runner and will take on defenders and yet that resulted in so many of his injuries last year. There is no question that Maroney has the physical skills here for an outstanding fantasy season and he plays on a great team for opportunities. But – he was constantly nicked up last year and the reliability of Maroney each week will be very risky thanks to the deceptive non-disclosure of the Pats. There’s been no other report allowed by the Pats regarding his shoulder surgery and no comment outside of a single report which is not surprising. And yet the Pats acquired only Sammy Morris so how concerned are they really?? Maroney is going very early in drafts considering his weekly risk but he could end up richly rewarding his fantasy owner – or just be another frustrating start each week because you cannot afford to sit him and yet can never truly know what he will do. Big reward but big risk. Make sure you grab Sammy Morris if you have Maroney.

(+Upside) Reggie Bush had a successful rookie season with 155 carries for 565 yards and six rushing scores and he added 88 receptions for 742 yards and two more touchdowns. He ranked #2 in receptions among all running backs (tied for 9th best among all positions) and his receiving yardage also ranked 2nd among running backs. He gave rich rewards for those in reception point leagues. Like Maurice Jones-Drew, he is being drafted as early as mid-first round this year based on those stats from 2007 that were actually accumulated later in the season during a very productive stretch which cloaked what happened in most games.

Bush turned in three big games – week 13 vs. SF (37 rush yards, 131 receiving yards), week 14 in DAL (37/125) and week 16 at NYG (126/23). Those three weeks accounted for 479 total yards and six of his eight touchdowns. He averaged 67 rushing yards and 93 receiving yards in those games. The other 13 weeks were a bit less impressive, averaging only 28 rushing yards and 36 receiving yards with only two total touchdowns in those efforts. It is easy to remember the final weeks of the year and Bush was developing his NFL skills as the season progressed, but the bulk of his work doesn’t support him suddenly being a mid-first rounder. His three big games were great, but he won’t play DAL or NYG this year and the SF game will be on the road this year. And McAllister ran for over 100 yards in all three of those games last year – he topped 100 rushing yards only one other time.

Bush was a great weapon for the Saints and one reason why Brees led the NFL in passing last year. But he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry and did the biggest damage as a receiver. In leagues without reception points, he drops even more. That all said, the Saints have a fairly soft rushing schedule this year and Bush is already an integral part of the offense but Deuce McAllister is still there and averaged 4.3 yards per carry and ten rushing touchdowns after blowing out an ACL the previous season. He’ll be even farther removed from injury. Bush was very consistent with at least 70 total yards per game and he is so ingrained in the passing game that he should be more shielded from a sophomore slump since he is a double threat, but taking him over several other running backs in the first round is making too much of three games last year and not realizing that 13 games says he’s just good so far – not yet great and not yet in a situation that grants him more than around 15 touches in most games.

08-24-07 Update: Bush moves up a few spots not only because he looked great against the Chiefs, but mostly because the entire Saints offense has looked very sharp in the preseason and the more success the Saints have in other areas of the offense, the more running room that Bush will get this year.

(+Upside) James is 29 years old and is four years past his knee injury in 2001. James rushed for 1159 yards last year but had only a 3.4 yard average – not that shocking for a Cardinal’s runner and even a bit impressive compared to previous years. What is hidden inside that total is that James only gained 2.9 yards per carry in the first eight games but had 4.2 YPC in the second half of the season. He turned in three 100+ yard rushing games over the final five weeks as well. The offensive line was starting to come together better later in the season.

The change to HC Ken Whisenhunt from Pittsburgh can only spell better days for James contrasted to the wide open offense of Denny Green. James had 337 carries last year – coincidentally the same number as Willie Parker had last year with Whisenhunt. But Parker gained almost an additional 350 yards thanks to a better offensive line. One of the first steps Whisenhunt and company made was to acquire OT Mike Gandy and draft OT Levi Brown with their 1.05 draft pick. They acquired C Al Johnson from the Cowboys to compete with Nick Leckey. If there is one area that should show improvement with the addition of Whisenhunt, is that the offensive line controlled by Russ Grimm will be an upgrade from last year. If they can replicate their success in Pittsburgh, this line eventually could become better than any ever seen in a Cardinals uniform. And that all directly benefits James.

(-Risk) (+Upside) Coming off his second NFL season, Brown now has a 1000 yard effort to his credit – but just barely. Brown ran for 1008 yards on 241 carries in 2006 and missed all or part of five games due to a groin injury early in the season and later a broken bone in his hand that required surgery. He still managed to gain 4.2 yards per carry on the year and his very slow start turned around by mid-season when he had four games over 100 rushing yards after week five. Brown’s production was inconsistent though thanks to his injuries and the overall problems with the offense in 2006.

As a rookie, Brown had shared with Ricky Williams and yet still managed to gain 907 yards on 207 carries for a 4.4 yard average. Last year is not a good measuring stick for what the Fins will do in 2007 and pretty much anything with Nick Saban’s stamp on it is dismissed, ignored or outright cursed. Brown now gets to play in an offense designed and called by HC Cam Cameron who engineered the offense in San Diego for the last four years. That means that Brown is now the new Tomlinson for Cameron. Cameron is shaping every aspect of the offense and none will be more closely worked on than the running game.

This year is a turning point for Brown and a chance to show that being the first back drafted in 2005 was a prudent move by Miami. Cameron has already directed Brown to lower his body fat percentage and be in better shape after Brown showed up in the off-season overweight at 240 pounds, up about eight pounds from last year. This will either be Brown’s year or he’ll have a hard to justifying his draft pick. To add to the excitement that a Cameron offense should provide for running backs, the intention is to use Brown more as a receiver than he has the last two seasons when he caught around 30 passes each season. Brown’s ranking and projection is made on the assumption that he will take advantage of a golden opportunity and get in shape to fulfill his potential. He’s a more of a risk than an established top back but he has undeniable upside in this offense.

08-29-07 Update: Brown is taken down a few notches because the Miami coaches continue to talk about mixing in Jesse Chatman into the backfield as remarkable as that seems. While Brown should be good this year, he carries a little more risk of sharing if only in the initial weeks.

(+Upside) The season started very slowly for Jones-Drew with only 12 yards on four carries in the first four games. Then he had 103 yards against the Colts on only 13 carries because of a few long runs but then went back to only three yards on three carries in week four. By midseason, Jones-Drew had run for only 320 yards in the first eight games with much of that the one Colts game in week three. Jones is vividly remembered for his tremendous effort in 2007 that ended with a total of 941 yards on 166 carries for a 5.7 YPC (3rd best in the NFL) and that he scored 13 rushing touchdowns and had two more scores as a receiver where he had 46 catches for 436 more yards. Great numbers and some very big games. But…

Maurice only gained an average of 42 rushing yards per game through the first 12 games with around four catches per week and 35 receiving yards. He had scored a total of seven rushing scores and two receiving touchdowns – pretty good by itself for a rookie that wasn’t a starter. But in the final four games, Fred Taylor was nursing a sore hamstring and only had 37 carries for 270 yards and that included 131 yards against the Colts. Jones-Drew had 71 carries during those final four match-ups with a total of 441 rushing yards and six touchdowns. He also added 14 catches for 119 yards. Those final four games included match-ups with IND (and Taylor had his 131 yards first), TEN, NE and KC (just 46 rushing yards). The New England game offered up an impressive 131 yards on 19 carries, but 74 yards came on one run. Otherwise, Jones-Drew only had 56 yards on 18 carries (3.1 YPC).

Is Jones-Drew the next LT? Of course that is very premature. But Jones-Drew did the one thing fantasy players love to remember – got red hot right during the fantasy playoffs. That happened when Taylor had a hamstring strain and the Jaguars just resigned Taylor to a three-year contract for $23 million. That wasn’t to be a bench guy. Jones-Drew has two characteristics that have huge fantasy benefits – he is the touchdown scorer and he can bust a long run or catch. In a long-term sense, he looks like a great keeper to own. For 2007, Taylor won’t always have a hamstring strain (at least probably) and the schedule is much tougher this year. Expect to see Jones-Drew productive and there’s no reason why his touchdowns will not continue even if Greg Jones is healthy again. But unless Taylor is out or very limited, then don’t expect Jones-Drew to be quite the wunderkind he was last year. To his benefit, he still goes against TEN and IND who he tore up last year. But Taylor’s extension and the way that Jones-Dew played in most games has to be considered.

(+Upside) The big change for the Ravens is Willis McGahee – nothing else on this offense is likely to be much different. The Bills were willing to let him go to avoid what would undoubtedly be a costly negotiation next year when he was due to become an unrestricted free agent. McGahee only cost a third and a seventh round pick last April and comes off his worst season in the NFL since he only ran for 990 yards and six scores. He missed two games last year and played injured in others due to broken ribs and a later ankle injury but his 3.8 yards per carry in 2006 was exactly the same as 2005. In fact he has never averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in his career.

McGahee has the ability to turn in long scores and at 6-0 and 228 pounds, he is just the right size for an NFL running back. Most of his promise was displayed in 2004 when he ran for 1128 yards on 284 carries and scored 13 times – more touchdowns than the last two years combined. Now he is with the Ravens who will undoubtedly want to run him 350+ times and they have a better line since Jonathan Ogden decided to return this year. What McGahee will mostly answer is how done is Jamal Lewis? If McGahee comes in and merely repeats his previous seasons, then he will make for just an average fantasy back. If he can show more form and better running than Lewis has recently, then McGahee could be a sleeper this year playing for a team that loves to run and that has a defense which holds opponents scoring down so the Ravens can run heavily.

McGahee leaves a team perpetually struggling offensively and now plays for a playoff contender. Even in Buffalo, McGahee had a couple big games last season and has flashed the form that only lacks consistency. That mostly will come from the situation his team is in every week. With the move to Baltimore, you should get nothing less from McGahee and the opportunity is there for him to have a much bigger year. Some risk from his lack of big stats in the past, but much upside is here with a far better team.

(+Upside) After watching Tiki Barber run wild for the last two years, Jacobs is finally given his shot at being the primary back for the Giants. So far he’s been mostly a short-yardage, goal line back that has scored 16 times over his two seasons and last year ran 96 times for 423 yards and nine scores with a YPC of 4.4. His role in the passing game is almost non-existent with only 11 career receptions. But Jacobs is a load to bring down at 6’4" and 260 pounds. He’s much less likely to turn in a long gainer with a high of only 21 yards as his longest run after 134 career carries though in fairness many were of the short variety. Jacobs ran a 4.4 at the combine in 2005 and is fast for a player his size.

The Giants acquired Reuben Droughns in a trade for Tim Carter and he will assume the #2 role since it fills a big need. There have been overtures that the Giants will opt for a rotation with both Jacobs and Droughns, but what that ratio will be remains to be hammered out this summer. While Jacobs is underrated because many consider only his size, Droughns is likewise overrated from being a Denver back and getting a 300 carry year with Cleveland. Expect the Giants to get everything they can out of Jacobs and use Droughns to fill in the rest.

Jacobs also enjoys one of the softest rushing schedules in the NFL this year which should help. The Giants signed Rueben Droughns in the offseason in a trade with the Browns and that could be an issue if Jacobs fails to get off to a strong start but so far he’s been a very strong runner who has surprising and the power of a bulldozer.

The Jets acquired Jones to help out a rushing attack that ranked 30th in average yards per carry – only 3.5 yards. Jones has been in the league for seven years and at the age of 29 has finally had two decent seasons. In 2005 in Chicago, he ran for 1335 on 314 carries and nine scores – all career marks. Last season while he shared more with Cedric Benson, Jones only gained 1210 yards and had six touchdowns. That’s still light years away from what any Jets back could do in HC Eric Mangini’s first season as a new head coach.

Jones will take the primary role here but he won’t be alone thanks to the brief success of Leon Washington who will provide a nice complementary style to the power rusher of Jones. The Jets running backs combined for 426 carries in 2006, so there’s still plenty of room for Jones to get a full load but the offensive line is still coming together and the passing game has yet to be anything more than mediocre. Expect Jones to play much the same role as he did in Chicago with similar results on a team that will focus as much on stopping opponents as they will outscoring them.

08-24-07 Update: Jones drops a couple of spots from his calf injury which has kept him off the field. The team still contends that he will be ready for week one but HC Mangini has been livid that anyone has mentioned anything about Jones injury because he wants the New England model of "I ain't saying" when it comes to injuries. That makes Jones a higher risk each week to rely on.

Portis suffered a triple whammy in 2006 when he was lost for the second half of the season due to a torn labrum that required surgery and a six-month rehabilitation. Then his replacement Ladell Betts shined in his opportunity, running as well or better than Portis had. And finally, the NFL was ruled by teams with dual backfields in 2006 and success begets replication. His recovery still sets him ready for training camp without a problem but he also was diagnosed with patella tendinitis in his knee that kept him out of some team workouts this spring. Team doctors do not expect it to be an issue this year, but it is troublesome that Portis continued to have health problems even when the season was over. The Skins restructured his previous eight-year, $50 million deal and Portis could now become a free agent at the end of 2008.

Portis was very effective in 2005 when he missed no games and ended with 1516 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. But last year Portis only had one game over 100 yards (as did Betts that week) and prior to his injury, he only had averaged 17 carries a game for 71 yards. He did score seven times in his first seven games, but the yardage was lagging as the new offense was being installed by Al Saunders. Some of Betts success could be attributed to the offense coming together better in the second half of the season, but the Skins have already claimed to be using a two back offense this year and it is not hard to reason why given how well Betts played and the desire to keep Portis fresh and injury-free. The Skins will have a powerful rushing attack this year and Portis will be the primary contributor, but unlike in 2005 when Betts only had five games with more than five carries, Portis will have a tag team buddy to a much greater extent.

08-24-07 Update: The longer Portis is bothered by his knee, the more risk he presents. He's already in a potential sharing situation with Ladell Betts and throwing in a knee condition makes him even less attractive.

(-Risk) (+Upside) The Bills spent their 1.12 draft pick on Lynch and with that should enjoy their most talented back since the days of Thurman Thomas. Lynch is also the only rookie back with a nearly guaranteed starting spot in week one. He’s not only a dynamic runner (137 yards per game last year at Cal) but he’s an accomplished receiver as well with 34 catches for 328 yards and four scores last year. He ended his career with 68 receptions for 600 yards and six touchdowns while average around 1300 rushing yards in his final two years. He was only a junior when he left.

Lynch has all the markings of a good NFL back that can turn into a nice fantasy producer with his receiving ability. The Bills only used McGahee for 18 catches last year, but he’s not nearly the pass catcher that Lynch has been in college. Lynch is going in the third round or so in most twelve team drafts and for more than NFL inexperience. The Bills have the worst rushing schedule of any team in the NFL and the blocking last year only paved the way for a 3.7 yard per carry average by Buffalo running backs – 27th best in the league. Lynch should be the real deal but his first season will be as big a challenge as any runner in the NFL will have.

(+Upside) Peterson was taken by the Vikings with the 1.07 pick in April and he was clearly the consensus best back in the draft. He’s big at 6’2" and 218 pounds and dominated at Oklahoma – when he was healthy. He battled injuries for the past two seasons and comes off a broken left collarbone but he was cleared to practice and despite concerns, he did not require surgery on the shoulder as was feared. Let other teams focus on his supposed injury risk, when he plays he is about as unstoppable as any runner coming out of college for the last several years. Some of his injuries stem from him taking on defenders head on to gain the extra yard instead of step out of bounds. He runs like the defense has insulted his mother and now goes to team with two Pro Bowl blockers in 2006.

Of course, Chester Taylor is still there and signed a four year contract in 2006. Maybe Taylor believes that Peterson is just there to offer quality back-up and relief but Taylor’s deal was only for $14 million overall. The seventh pick in the 2007 draft will be going for more than $14 million for four years and the fact that the Vikings passed on a top quarterback to get Peterson shows the pick was less about need and more about the quality of the player. HC Brad Childress has already talked about using both Taylor and Peterson in the same backfield and if you have followed the NFL, this almost never happens and usually ends up meaning that the kid is probably going to swap places with the #1 running back. The notion that Taylor will hold Peterson off all season long is held solely by those in the immediate Taylor family. Peterson gets to ply his trade in a division full of light Cover 2 defenses. Just to make it even better, Peterson was rarely used as a receiver in college but showed impressive catching skills in minicamp already. Any rookie running back is a risk but with that line and what could prove to be the softest rushing schedule of any team, Peterson deserves the leap of faith.