Finally.

Maybe about 15 years ago or so, I scored my fantasy league by hand and once I had those statistics, I applied them to the schedule as my secret tool to see which players would be good or bad to own. When we created The Huddle in 1997, I published my own strength of schedule in a world that had never seen schedule analysis beyond just wins and losses. It was great. It's been copied all over the internet (though in fairness someone else would have eventually came up with the same concept). I was the first though and while I happily hang my hat on that and other innovations we've had on The Huddle, I have to admit that strength of schedule always bothered me as a tool because something was missing.

I finally realized what it was. And with that, I present to you an entirely new way to view schedules and one that is the most helpful and accurate to understanding players this year. You see, each summer you determine what you think of players based on a host of variables. It is valuable to see how a player's schedule stacks up against others in his position. BUT... it is just as important to note how a schedule stacks up against what the player had the previous season. Probably more important since only that can indicate how likely a player is to produce more or less fantasy points. It doesn't really matter so much if a player has a good schedule this season if he had a much better one last year. He'd only do as well and maybe a bit worse (depending on other variables). It would potentially be misleading to only consider this year's schedule without comparing it to the previous year.

First off, here's how the numbers were initially created. For each defense and venue (home and away), the total points were determined and then divided into per game numbers. Below is for quarterbacks and the median value was 18.7 points allowed by a defense to opposing quarterbacks. The median value is then subtracted from the "per game" to show how each defense (home or away) allowed more or less points than the average defense.

The best place of all to start a fantasy quarterback in 2008 was playing at home against the Cardinals. They allowed 26.8 fantasy points on average to quarterbacks which was 8.1 points more than the "average" defense. Conversely, playing at Indianapolis was the worst place a quarterback could play. On average, he would only produce a league low of 9.8 points per game. That was 8.9 points worse than average. So in 2008, the difference between hosting the Cardinals or playing at the Colts was the biggest extreme - 17 points per game!

Fantasy Points Allowed to Quarterbacks 2008

Above shows just how defenses treated home and away quarterbacks. After all the positions were done like above, the per game allowed points can then be applied to the 2008 schedule to see how easy or tough each fantasy position per team actually had last year. This shows the actual total fantasy points that the position was above or below the average schedule for that position in 2008.

Here is how the schedules actually were for teams last year based on how close to average they were. After calculating the points allowed for all positions and determining the average, the numbers were applied against the schedule last year to see just how hard each NFL team had for the fantasy positions. The bigger the number, the greater the advantage over all other teams. The lower the number, the bigger the disadvantage was. Any score around zero means the schedule was not a factor since they played against the average set of defenses.

Actual Schedule Advantage of 2008

2008 - The Actual Advantages and Disadvantages

Remember - the numbers above show how many points away from average the schedule was for each position. DeAngelo Williams had the best for running backs with a 33.7 point advantage (non-PPR scoring) while Cedric Benson faced a -37.7 point disadvantage with the Bengals last year. That means that there was a 71.4 point difference in schedules for running backs between CAR and CIN.

Quarterbacks - Whether they took advantage of it or not, the easiest schedules for any quarterback went to Trent Edwards in Buffalo and Chad Pennington in Miami. Interesting that the Saints and Packers both had big years from their quarterbacks but the top six teams did not feature any great passing. The worst schedules went to most of the AFC North with CLE, BAL and CIN as the most challenged and none featured any major stats. It harkens well for the Ravens to have Joe Flacco perform as well as he did against what was actually one of the worst schedules in the league.

Running Backs - This was pretty interesting and the schedule always impacts the running backs the most. The best schedules belonged to DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones and Adrian Peterson who all had career best seasons. Michael Turner and Matt Forte also had very nice schedules to play against. The worst schedules belonged to the Bengals (mostly Cedric Benson), Willie Parker, Brandon Jacobs and Jamal Lewis. Only Jacobs had a decent year. The Bengals turned in league low rushing stats and none of the bottom teams had runners with a big season. Adding in reception points to the equation really did not change too much other than the Saints got a big benefit. The toughest schedules all remained about the same.

Wide Receivers - Closely mirroring the quarterbacks, the wideouts that statistically had the best schedule just did not deliver much. The Rams, Bills and 49ers did not feature any notable wideouts. But just under those were Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings and Terrell Owens. The worst schedules seemed more aligned with what happened with the Bengals (without Palmer too) having a horrible season as did the Browns (again with QB injuries). The first deviations of bad schedules were Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson and Calvin Johnson. But whether with or without reception points considered, the teams with the worst schedules turned in mostly lower receiving totals across the board.

Tight Ends - Mildly interesting but NFL teams do not use tight ends consistently enough from team to team to make any truly definitive statements here. The extremes saw Zach Miller of the Raiders with the best schedule - and he had a decent year despite being a Raider - and the NFC East actually had tougher schedules even though Chris Cooley and Jason Witten still had good years.

Forecasted Schedule Advantage for 2009

2009 - The Projected Advantages and Disadvantages

Quarterbacks - The Rams keep having great schedules so maybe Marc Bulger can turn in decent numbers somehow without any decent receivers. Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning are also facing the nicest schedules in the league with Aaron Rodgers not that far behind. For the worst schedules, the AFC North once again takes it on the chin with Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer both facing well below average schedules and Kyle Orton shows up in Denver at apparently the wrong time. Just to make it tough on both second-year quarterbacks, Matt Ryan also is facing a tough schedule this year.

Running Backs - Always the most interesting analysis, Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett get to install a new offense against the most above average schedule in the NFL. Clinton Portis also faces a very nice slate of games and the rookie Chris Wells gets his chance to bring a rushing attack back to the Cardinals while going against one of the most accommodating schedules in the league. Several of the top backs - Frank Gore, LaDainian Tomlinson and Maurice Jones-Drew should be mostly running downhill this season. Not so for DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner who come off tremendous efforts in 2008 only to face the worst set of defenses for running backs. Derrick Ward in Tampa Bay? He'll need to be extra good to compensate for statistically the worst schedule of all. The AFC East all are well below average this year.

Wide Receivers - Good year for the Cardinals and Packers wideouts should be in store and if the Vikings and Rams do not throw well, it will have nothing to do with the schedule. Terrell Owens gets a boost here with the Bills facing a surprisingly easy schedule and Roddy White should be a big factor once he is happy with his contract situation. Brandon Marshall should probably start focusing on the season since he and Eddie Royal get the worst slate of games of any wide receivers right when they lost Jay Cutler. As always, the AFC North has all teams facing bigger challenges than most teams for wideouts. The Saints drop pretty low considering reception points but it's the NFL's most vaunted passing attack and should still be bigger than the schedule.

Tight Ends - Oakland grabs the top spot again this year but that is largely a function of all the AFC West teams that have good tight ends and that in turn makes it appear that the defenses are weak against them (Gonzalez, Gates, Scheffler and Miller). The only really notable here is that the Falcons acquired Tony Gonzalez and yet statistically have the worst schedule for him to go against. Again - for tight ends it is much more about the quality of the tight end than any extrapolation of what defenses do when they face them. The position just has a handful of highly productive players that skews the results too much.

The Epiphany

Now that is all very interesting and objectively an accurate view of how each team and position will fare against the average schedule. All alone this is worthwhile. But it bugs me - why do you care what a schedule strength is? Because you want to establish your set of expectations for all the players. But you already know what the player was like last year and now know what his schedule in 2008 really was. And what his current schedule projects out to be. What we can do now is pure fantasy nirvana. Like a forehead-slapping epiphany when the lights are suddenly turned on. Let's put it all together and see exactly what the difference will be for players from what they did in 2008 and what they face in 2009. That should be the best indicator of production than anything you have ever used. Including that ridiculous lucky coin you like to flip.

I present unto to you...

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