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The key to a successful fantasy draft is getting good value with each of your picks. If you’re able to land Reggie Wayne in the fourth round when he’s going in the second round of most drafts, your team will benefit greatly. Conversely, in most cases it doesn’t make sense to draft a player in round two when he’s going in round four of the average fantasy draft. “Most cases” is the operative phrase here.
Average Draft Position (ADP) rankings are wonderful tools. But before you get too carried away and treat ADP as the judge, jury and executioner for your draft strategy, recognize that there are occasions in which it makes sense to reach for a player—to throw the ADP out the window and take a player significantly earlier than he’s going in most drafts. Here are two criteria for when it’s okay to reach.
- Conviction -- By the time my drafts roll around, there are usually a handful of players who I covet. These are players who with every fiber of my being I believe will perform like fantasy studs. When you have this level conviction for a player, by all means identify the earliest spot in the draft in which you feel good about taking the player and take him.
- Position – Before making a reach, you’ll want to figure out what the odds are of the player falling to your next pick. For example, let’s say you’re drafting twelfth overall in a 12-team league with a snake draft. You absolutely covet Pierre Thomas and are convinced he’s going to be a top 5 RB this season. Guess what? It’s okay to reach for him and take him with your first or second round pick. Odds are he won’t fall to you at the end of the third round. If you want him on your team, you’re going to have to reach for him. On the other hand, if Aaron Rodgers is the guy you desperately want, you’d be crazy to take him in round one. There’s a 99.9% chance he’ll be available with your next pick.
Many fantasy football owners will argue when you’ve identified a player with an ADP lower than your current slot and it’s a player you absolutely must have the proper strategy is to trade down. That’s true. If you can swing a trade, go for it. However, the reality is in most leagues the chances of pulling off an in-draft trade are about as slim as the chances of me getting some rebound action from Kim Kardashian.
The bottom line is it’s your team. Build it the way you want to build it and don’t second-guess yourself if you get heckled. If you’re drafting third overall and you want Larry Fitzgerald in the first round, take Larry Fitzgerald. If you wait around for players to fall to you, chances are you’ll end up with a team you’re iffy about.
Here are five players I might reach for if my draft was held today:
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