The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and then applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen – facing each defense either home or away.
To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.
Three different views are given below – Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule – “draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks”.
This analysis awards 0.1 points per rushed yard and 0.05 points per passed yard. Touchdowns are worth four points.
Peyton Manning – This doesn’t seem very fair since Manning needs no help and even gets Wes Welker into the fold this season. He’s worthy of a top quarterback pick considering half his games go against defenses from the 20 best matchups of 2012 and just once does he have a matchup that could be considered bad by last year’s standards.
Tony Romo – Not only did Romo manage to remain healthy in an even-numbered season finally, he saw Dez Bryant and Jason Witten end up as tops in their positions. Now he only has to face one bad defensive matchup all year and seven times gets the easier schedule. He got paid big in the off-season and now has a chance to make good on his King’s ransom.
Alex Smith – While he won’t merit consideration as a fantasy starter, a new team and a great schedule should make Smith a viable option for a fantasy backup. He has actual upside this year for maybe the first time since his rookie season.
Matt Stafford – While he has Megatron there to help him remain better than his schedule, Stafford will have to work at repeating his success of the last two years. The Lions end up with worst schedule of all quarterbacks facing eight different defensive venues in the worst 20 of 2012.
Christian Ponder – Trading Percy Harvin for Greg Jennings may or may not be an upgrade but with a bad schedule that includes ending the fantasy season with games in Baltimore and Cincinnati means he won’t help at the end if you were forced to use him.
Week – By – Week