Sleepers and Value Plays: Running Backs

By The Huddle | August 28, 2013 12:00 am ET

Other Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends

A sleeper is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Below are players ranked by the current Average Draft Position (ADP) as found on MyFantasyLeague.com considering all scoring systems as a general basis. I’m assuming a league of 12 teams where most would take two or three running backs for starting purposes and then up throught the 60th back drafted as a backup.

Green Players are the values/sleepers I like while Red Players are the ones I do not value high enough to ever draft. If not red or green, the player is slotted pretty close to where I see him.

Average Draft positions taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only real drafts conducted after August 25th

Starters – Value Plays

ADP	Team	Player	Analysis
1	MIN	Peterson, Adrian	You know he will fall but even then could still be #1
2	TBB	Martin, Doug	Youth, right offense, good blockers catches ball, easy division. Cha-ching.
3	HOU	Foster, Arian	Everyone is scared of Foster after 3 big years. He is finally off PUP and he says he “thinks” he will be ready for week one. Why take a risk in the first round if you do not have to… and you do not have to…
4	KCC	Charles, Jamaal	Charles in an Andy Reid offense. Upside to be huge. Grab Nile Davis just to be sure.
5	BUF	Spiller, C.J.	Never running more than 207 times worries me a little. But his upside higher than risk.
6	CLE	Richardson, Trent	Second year and now with Norv Turner back to running an offense. Seems solid with upside.
7	BAL	Rice, Ray	The Ravens likely for an offensive downturn but Rice should maintain if no one else.
8	PHI	McCoy, LeSean	Good spot for McCoy who should be big long as he stays healthy.
9	SEA	Lynch, Marshawn	Seems like he has met his upside and ceiling but has almost no downside. Safe pick
10	CHI	Forte, Matt	Trestman makes huge difference starting with Forte. Running and receiving – I’d buy.
11	WAS	Morris, Alfred	Catches even less than Lynch. I’ll never own him but understand why this is a decent spot.
12	ATL	Jackson, Steven	This is still a little higher than I would go on the 30 YO back in a new offense but it is not hard to make the case for him being this good. I just never end up with him but he is probably okay. This would be better than he has been in many years though.
13	TEN	Johnson, Chris	Johnson is always this good and usually better.
14	DET	Bush, Reggie	This is fine in a PPR league since he looks like he is going to be a monster if he stays healthy unlike any other DET RB in the last ten or so years.
15	JAC	Jones-Drew, Maurice	He looks healthy and JAX has nothing else to do but over-use him this year since he’ll be somewhere else in 2014. Contract year and MJD is worth the risk to me.
16	NEP	Ridley, Stevan	I think Ridley is solid for a RB2 and while Vereen may or may not cut into Ridley’s workload, Ridley is a scoring machine. And he’ll take between most and all rushing attempts.
17	SFO	Gore, Frank	Don’t like him any more than this because I bet they take it easier on the old man so he is fresh for the playoffs. Solid RB2.
18	DAL	Murray, DeMarco	Last year he only had one 100 yard game. And he was injured as he is every single year including college. Dallas O-line not exactly elite. I live in Dallas and I would not draft Murray.
19	NOS	Sproles, Darren	Getting old at 31 but in a PPR league makes a perfectly suitable RB2.
20	NYG	Wilson, David	Was red and now green with the leg fracture of Andre Brown that should make Wilson a true full-timer in an offense that loves to run..
21	OAK	McFadden, Darren	Understand why you make this pick and with new offense should be back to that form he had in that one decent season he had (2010) of his five years in the league. Has NEVER played more than 13 games in any season. Let someone else wonder where he went when they needed him most.
22	GBP	Lacy, Eddie	Not convinced he will be much better than this in the pass-happy scheme of the Packers but as a deep RB2, gotta like the primary back of one of the most prolific offenses. Has risen in popularity sharply in recent weeks. DuJuan Harris going on IR seems to remove anything cute from happening.
23	MIA	Miller, Lamar	This deep great pick. No way Daniel Thomas gets in the way. Maybe not a ton of upside here but should make a serviceable RB2.
24	SDC	Mathews, Ryan	Sort of like McFadden. Had one decent year, two bad ones and never played more than 14 games in any season. New offense, less powerful means less likely a dominating rushing game is going to spring up.
25	DEN	Ball, Montee	While I do not think Hillman is going to be a negative factor here, I am hesitant to rule out Knowshon Moreno at least at the start of the year because Manning must be protected. As a RB3 I guess it is still okay but I think he probably starts out sharing and gets up to speed more by mid-season. Way more talented a runner than anyone else in DEN.
26	CIN	Bernard, Giovani	I want to watch this Spiller-knockoff but I fear his first season will be like Spillers. And that Green-Ellis does factor in enough to really detract from Bernard. This deep I am okay with the pick but I have concerns despite the admitted upside here.
27	STL	Richardson, Daryl	An appropriate RB3 kind of pick. May not rise to RB2 stature but should hold his own here.
28	IND	Bradshaw, Ahmad	Higher on Bradshaw than I was at first, but still have never drafted him. His health history scares me away. Heck, it scared the NY Giants away.
29	NEP	Vereen, Shane	Like Vereen but only in reception point leagues.
30	NYJ	Ivory, Chris	Decent grab for RB3 despite the woeful Jets offense not looking like much. Starting RB is a starting RB.

After the Starters are taken, look for sleepers and avoid bad values for your backup

ADP	Team	Player	Analysis
31	ARI	Mendenhall, Rashard	Already said he had a loose knee. ARI is not where RBs go to die, it is where they go to completely fade away from all memory. No O-line doesn’t help. ARI is like DET – they just cannot keep RBs healthy for some reason.
32	CIN	Green-Ellis, BenJarvus	I like this pick as a bye week filler or a really deep flex play. He won’t be as good as last year but he won’t lose all fantasy value either.
33	PIT	Bell, Le’Veon	This pick depends all on how well you can weather not using someone for a month to two months. Small rosters – forget it. Deep rosters, sure – I like taking him and stashing him away with expectations that maybe by mid-season I have a FT runner. But I would not reach for this pick. And I had a man-crush on Bell earlier.
34	CAR	Williams, DeAngelo	Maybe get Williams if you take Bell…. Hmmmm… nah. Not like any CAR back has really mattered since Newton started stealing all their thunder. This is a decent pick but maybe a throw-away by mid-season or so. He is 30 and not likely to last no matter what.
35	NOS	Ingram, Mark	I like Ingram as a RB4. Lots of pointing fingers say he is as healthy as he has ever been in the NFL, Payton is back and wants to run, etc, etc. Worth the pick here.
36	HOU	Tate, Ben	Gotta pay up if you own Foster. Drafters are all over Tate. Probably too much. But worth the gamble this late.
37	~~NYG~~	~~Brown, Andre~~	~~RB4 territory and Brown should be no worse than a great bye week filler and golden if Wilson gets hurt.~~ Fractured leg.
38	IND	Ballard, Vick	The only upside here is that Bradshaw usually is hurt. Then again, Ballard did not exactly burning up the scoreboard last year.
39	DEN	Hillman, Ronnie	As messy as DEN may be, I think Hillman is the odd man out regardless of what transpires with Moreno and Ball.
40	PHI	Brown, Bryce	Still like this pick though Polk looked good lately. PHI wants to run and run and run and McCoy can only do so much.
41	BAL	Pierce, Bernard	If you own RIce, okay. Otherwise, not that attractive.
42	SDC	Woodhead, Danny	In a PPR league, this may be a bye week filler
43	BUF	Jackson, Fred	Fred is so old that his name is Fred. Let the Spiller guy have him.
44	CAR	Stewart, Jonathan	On PUP but this is cheap. But never cheap enough for me.
45	PIT	Dwyer, Jonathan	Not convinced all that great play in the preseason does anything to change the RBBC with Isaac Redman. Kinda should take all three PIT backs and then see what happens. And hope that whatever happens has some fantasy value.
46	NOS	Thomas, Pierre	NO wants to run more and at least Chris Ivory is gone. Okay pick at this point.
47	ATL	Rodgers, Jacquizz	He just seems so summer of 2012.
48	CHI	Bush, Michael	Forte owners only.
49	DET	Leshoure, Mikel	Not sure how he ends up this high. Would not touch him thanks to Bell.
50	SEA	Michael, Christine	I really like Michael and he is a must own for the Lynch guy. If Lynch gets hurt and Michael is on the waiver wire, someone is blowing their free agent cap to get him and rightfully so.
51	DET	Bell, Joique	#2 in DET and seriously, when have they not had to resort to their #2 in the last decade?
52	DEN	Moreno, Knowshon	Take him in a deep league where you own Ball just to sleep better.
53	NYJ	Powell, Bilal	Not a bad pick. #2 in NYJ and Ivory already got hurt in camp.
54	STL	Pead, Isaiah	Not as bad as he seems, but still a #2 behind Richardson with not much upside.
55	WAS	Helu, Roy	Morris owner has a clear #2 to get here.
56	GBP	Franklin, Johnathan	Not feeling it for Franklin. Not impressed.
57	SFO	James, LaMichael	Why do people keep drafting him. Nothing is going to happen.
58	TEN	Greene, Shonn	TD only league maybe. CJ owners could play it safe this deep.
59	PIT	Redman, Isaac	It is a stupid game to play but you kinda need Dwyer too early and Redman too late to feel like you have the first month of the Steelers backfield. Actually this is really a mess. But what the heck.
60	MIA	Thomas, Daniel	Would never take him. He proved last year why.

Undrafted – Best Value

Team	Player	Analysis
OAK	Jennings, Rashad	I’d draft Waylon Jennings if he was #2 to Darren McFadden.
SF	Hunter, Kendall	This is the #2 in SF for the Gore owners to take. Leave McMichael alone.
TB	James, Mike	Looked great in preseason but only for the Martin owner in a deep league.
KC	Davis, Knile	You know, Charles has been injured before. Not a bad final round steal.
DAL	Randle, Joseph	One of these guys will start 3 to 5 games. I just cannot definitively say which one.
DAL	Dunbar, Lance