With the season coming to an end I want to take a look at QB value. Back in July I penned Dissecting Quarterback Value in Fantasy Football. The article has also been referred to as the Zero QB Theorem.
Zero QB Theorem â If you zero out the quarterback’s points on a winning fantasy team, they still win a majority of head-to-head matchups.
If you haven’t read it yet, do so, but keep an open mind. If you did read it, hopefully you kept an open mind.
As the season is wrapping up I thought it would be a good exercise to take a look at QB ADP from this summer and also how QBs rank thru 15 weeks.
The following chart shows the top 12 QBs selected in the draft and their average draft pick.
| ADP Rank | Name | Avg. Pick | Round Drafted |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 15.83 | Early 2nd |
| 2 | Drew Brees | 18.06 | Mid 2nd |
| 3 | Peyton Manning | 29.39 | Early 3rd |
| 4 | Tom Brady | 38.22 | Early 4th |
| 5 | Cam Newton | 38.80 | Early 4th |
| 6 | Matt Ryan | 45.09 | Late 4th |
| 7 | Colin Kaepernick | 52.08 | Early 5th |
| 8 | Matt Stafford | 58.33 | Late 5th |
| 9 | Andrew Luck | 59.83 | Late 5th |
| 10 | Robert Griffin III | 61.84 | Early 6th |
| 11 | Russell Wilson | 69.66 | Mid-Late 6th |
| 12 | Tony Romo | 72.90 | Early 7th |
Now that we know where the first 12 QBs were selected in drafts, let’s take a look at where those 12 currently rank.
| ADP Rank | Name | Current Positional Ranking | Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 25 | 160.22 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | 2 | 331.70 |
| 3 | Peyton Manning | 1 | 383.34 |
| 4 | Tom Brady | 13 | 258.06 |
| 5 | Cam Newton | 4 | 292.86 |
| 6 | Matt Ryan | 14 | 249.86 |
| 7 | Colin Kaepernick | 16 | 242.50 |
| 8 | Matt Stafford | 3 | 301.82 |
| 9 | Andrew Luck | 5 | 284.78 |
| 10 | Robert Griffin III | 15 | 244.88 |
| 11 | Russell Wilson | 7 | 275.88 |
| 12 | Tony Romo | 9 | 265.90 |
In Dissecting Quarterback Value in Fantasy Football I pointed out that on average over the past five years that four of the top 12 QB drafted don’t finish as a top 12 QB. As it stands now, there are five QBs that don’t rank in the top 12. That means that five QBs drafted outside the 6th round rank in the top 12.
The following chart speaks volumes to the value that can be had at the QB position.
| Name | ADP Rank | Avg. Pick | Round Drafted | Current Positional Rank | Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Rivers | 23 | 156.94 | 14th | 6 | 280.32 |
| Andy Dalton | 14 | 112.26 | 10th | 8 | 274.96 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 24 | 157.05 | 14th | 10 | 264.98 |
| Ben Roethlesberger | 16 | 126.41 | 11th | 11 | 264.30 |
| Alex Smith | 25 | 160.89 | 14th | 12 | 263.40 |
The initial research in the article looked at the results of 1,805 fantasy matchups. The research showed that 1,101 (61%) of the teams that won still did so with a zero at QB. For those that lost, the point differential was less than 12 points/game.
I have yet to look at how the Zero QB Theorem has played out in the three leagues that I did the initial research on yetâ¦I plan to do that this offseason. However, what I did do was take a look at how the Zero QB Theorem played out in the 10 Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) expert leagues that were run on RTSports this year. Each league was comprised of 12 teams, and played an 11-week regular season. That means that I looked at 660 fantasy matchups. The playoffs aren’t 100% head-to-head so I didn’t include any information from week 12 on.
What I found is that 364 (55.2%) of 660 fantasy matchups ended with the winning team still winning when their QB points were zeroed out. The average point differential in the games that they lost ended up being 12,82 points/game.
I’ve now done research on 2,465 fantasy games, and now it’s time for you to do some research too. What I want you to do is to look at all of the fantasy matchups in your league this year (for a 12 team league it takes about 20-30 minutes). What I want you to do is to look at the winning team, subtract their QBs points, and see if they still won. If they did win put a check in a “still won” column. If they lost, take their total points scored, subtract their QBs points, then subtract that total from their opponents overall score (including their QBs points); that number is the point loss differential. Record that number in its own column.
When you are finished add up the “still won” column and divide it by the total number of fantasy matchups that you researched. That’s your win percentage. Then take the point loss differential column and add it up and divide by the number of losses that are in that column. That’s your average point loss differential.
After you are done doing all that, email me your results at gallo@thehuddle.com. Include the following in your email:
Title of email: Zero QB Theorem Research
Body of email: Include the number of teams.
Your scoring system for QBs.
Note if the league is a re-draft or a dynasty league.
Lastly, if your playoffs are head-to-head matchups tell me which QBs made the playoffs and which ones are playing for the championship this week.
