Every year there are new faces in new places – not just players, but coaches too. With those changes come scheme changes, and value changes with regard to fantasy football. Which is why drafting off stats from the previous year isn’t a wise thing to do. However, reading each divisional IDP preview update would be a wise thing to do. If you have any additional questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com or find me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL.
Chicago Bears
HC: Marc Trestman
DC: Mel Tucker
Base Defensive Scheme: 4-3
Scheme Change: No
Defensive Line
Out goes Julius Peppers (Green Bay) and in comes Jared Allen from the Vikings. I’ve long been a fan of Jared Allen’s game and I think he’ll be an upgrade over Peppers for the Bears. Fantasy wise, Allen is no longer a top-5 DL, but he should continue to be a solid DL2 that has the ability to post a huge DL1 type week on occasion. In addition to Allen, the Bears also added former Raider DE, Lamarr Houston. In Houston the Bears have a guy, which along with Allen, will really solidify their pass rush. Houston’s upside is a low-level DL1.
Linebacker
It seems like it’s been ages since the Bears had two strong top LB options in Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs for IDP owners. Briggs is still a bear but his ceiling is in the LB3 range for me. At MLB, there’s D.J. Williams and Jon Bostic. Bostic has the higher ceiling of the two, but until Williams is out of the way IDP owners will have to wait for Bostic to make his mark.
Secondary
Charles Tillman had an injury cut his 2013 season short and caused him to rank 129th among DBs in fantasy scoring. The positive to take from Tillman’s 2013 is that thru week 10 he was averaging 12.5 PPG and that extrapolates out to what would have been the equivalent of finishing tied for DB10. With an ADP of DB23, Tillman presents nice value and I see no reason he can’t bounce back and post solid DB1 to high-level DB2 type numbers this year.
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Detroit Lions
HC: Jim Caldwell
DC: Teryl Austin
Base Defensive Scheme: 4-3
Scheme Change: No
Defensive Line
As a rookie, Ziggy Ansah had a very inconsistent season but he at least flashed some signs to show what type of upside he has. He’ll be a boom/bust type play this year and I think the boom is worth betting on. After all, beyond the top tier of DLs inconsistency is something IDP owners deal with on a weekly basis at the DL position. Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley are both must owns in DT mandatory leagues. Suh finished as DT5 in 2013 and another top-10 campaign is what I’m expecting from him. The thing to keep an eye on is if he plays more disciplined this year with Jim Caldwell at the helm instead of Jim Schwartz.
Linebacker
Do you like vanilla or chocolate ice cream or are you an exotic mix type ice cream guy? If you are a vanilla/chocolate guy then Stephen Tulloch is your guy. He’s a LB that you can plug into your lineup and get LB2 type number week in and week out. There’s something to be said for consistency and Tulloch was consistent, scoring in double digits in all but one week in 2013. Fantasy wise, DeAndre Levy had a slightly better 2013 than Tulloch had, but he wasn’t as consistent. Early in the year he strung together some very nice games but over the final nine weeks he scored in single digits three times. In my drafts this year I’ve passed on the opportunity to draft LB when Levy was the perceived best value on the board and attacked another position and then went at LB later with guys I see as having better upside.
Secondary
Jame Ihedigbo will be manning the SS position for the Lions this year and he’s another guy I like that you can target later in drafts and get solid fantasy production from. Darius Slay will be starting at one of the CB spots and I think in CB mandatory leagues he’ll be a guy that has sneaky fantasy value.
Green Bay Packers
HC: Mike McCarthy
DC: Dom Capers
Base Defensive Scheme: 3-4
Scheme Change: No
Defensive Line
The Packers 3-4 scheme, like many other 3-4 schemes just doesn’t provide us with any viable fantasy options.
Linebacker
Julius Peppers is not only no longer a Chicago Bear but he’s also no longer a DE. In the Packers 3-4 he’s been reclassified as a LB. That means Peppers fantasy value is non-existent. A.J. Hawk finished as a LB22 in 2013 but I’m not expecting him to finish as a LB2 in 2014. I’m not looking for a drastic fall from grace but LB3 type numbers won’t surprise me. Brad Jones is back to his starting role at ILB and I do expect him to post LB3 numbers this year with LB2 upside. What I like even more about Jones is that you can get him after Hawk has already been taken in drafts.
Secondary
Morgan Burnett is still the DB to own in the Packers secondary. However, owning him comes at a price because with an ADP of DB10 you’ll have to take him much earlier in a draft than I’d be comfortable with. I know there are many that have big expectations for rookie FS, Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, but I’m not one of them.
Minnesota Vikings
HC: Mike Zimmer
DC: George Edwards
Base Defensive Scheme: 4-3
Scheme Change: No
Defensive Line
Jared Allen moves from playing DE for the Vikings to playing DE for the division rival Bears this year. That means that the Vikings have a void to fill at Allen’s old DE spot. Everson Griffin, meet opportunity, opportunity, meet Everson Griffin. Griffin isn’t a lock for DL2 or better production but playing in closer to 1000 snaps in 2014 will surely go a long way towards him maximizing his IDP value. For the record, I’m a buyer.
Linebacker
About he only thing I like at LB for the Vikings is Chad Greenway. Greenway moves over to WLB with the addition of rookie Anthony Barr who will man the SLB slot. I expect the Vikings offense to struggle this year and I think that turns into plus tackle opportunities for Greenway. I wish I could feel good about the Vikings MLB spot but I’m not about to trust Jasper Brinkley for fantasy purposes. I won’t be surprised if there’s value there, I just don’t feel good about Brinkley holding down the job.
Secondary
Because I’m expecting the Vikings offense to struggle I’m relatively high on Harrison Smith. I’m not a proponent of taking a DB early, but if you have to go that route, next to Barry Church, I love Harrison Smith.
Scoring system used for this article: solo tackle (2), assisted tackle (1), sack (3), forced or recovered fumble (3), interception (3) and pass defended (1).