Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: GB 17, SEA 24 (Line: SEA by 5.5)

This is an interesting season opener with the Packers only 4-4 on the road last year but now healthy again. The Seahawks were 15-1 in home games over the past two seasons and come off a Super Bowl with a big target on their back. The Seahawks at home are as dominant as any NFL team.

The Packers were only 8-7-1 last year thanks in large part to Aaron Rodgers who left the Bears game in week nine with a shoulder injury that never healed until week 17. His fantasy stats were down before that because he no longer added any touchdowns as a runner and rarely turned in more than 15 rush yards. That related to the drafting of Eddie Lacey who ended his rookie season with 284 runs for 1178 yards and 11 touchdowns along with 35 catches for 257 yards. It was the most dominant showing by a Packers running back in many years and changed the offense.

Lacey not only scored 11 times, he notched a touchdown in five of his last six home games and five of his seven road venues as well. He would normally only get two catches per week but at times was as high as five or six. He was marginal as a receiver but provided all those short rushing scores and managed six games with more than 90 rushing yards. He’s brought back the run to Green Bay and they’re not afraid to ride him hard if the need arises.

The only notable change to the receivers is that James Jones left for Oakland and Jarrett Boykin steps up to fill the gap. Jordy Nelson signed the pricey contract in the offseason and yet still practices with hunger. He led all Packers with 85 catches for 1314 yards and eight scores in 2013 while Randall Cobb struggled to regain his health and only played in six games. Cobb is due for free agency next season and it appears the Packers may allow him to walk. While this group continues to transform each year, they remain one of the most productive wideout unit in the NFL.

The Packers drafted Davante Adams in the second round to compete for the #3 receiver spot but he never outplayed Boykin who had a good camp and should remain the starter for the season.

Jermichael Finley never was able to return and in his place the Packers are going with Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless but the position is not expected to offer any relevant fantasy value this year. Between Lacey and the starting wideouts, there is no need for that much tight end activity.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Playing in Seattle is no way to start the season. There were only seven passing scores there last year by opposing quarterbacks and just two rushing touchdowns. The Seahawks may be in everyone sights this year but they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for this home opener on national TV. Expect depressed stats from all the Packer fantasy players though it is too early to just assume that you have someone better than Rodgers, Lacey, Nelson or Cobb .Bottom line though was no one did much of anything in Seattle last year except the Buccaneers because the Seahawks let them be the one “caught us not looking” team in the last two years.

Nothing like winning a Super Bowl to make everything seem great. The Seahawks were effective and efficient when they passed but it was the least amount of throwing in the entire league thanks to a great defense and a solid rushing game. Russell Wilson only passed for 3357 yards but had 26 touchdowns against only five interceptions. That may only be mediocre in fantasy terms but it is a way to win the Super Bowl in NFL terms. Russell also ran for 539 yards to help prop up his weekly fantasy value.

Marshawn Lynch ran 301 times for 1257 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2013 along with two more scores on his 36 catches for 316 yards. The summer was full of talk about Christine Michael who may still take over in 2015. But Michael was not impressive in training camp and Robert Turbin remains the third down back and relief for Lynch. There is no fantasy value in the backfield aside from Lynch and this year shapes up as no different than any recent years regardless of the hype and speculation.

The passing game is marginal here in fantasy value and Golden Tate left after being the busiest wideout from 2013 with only 64 catches for 898 yards and five scores. Doug Baldwin remains a solid possession guy that gets 50 or 60 yards most weeks and rarely anything much more or less. Percy Harvin hopes to remain healthy this year and replace Tate’s role as the wildcard deep throw in the offense. Jermaine Kearse also shows up occasionally though more often he’s worth just one catch each week.

The main fantasy aspect to the Seahawks is clearly their defense. Wilson is one of those quarterbacks who can and will do exactly what he needs to win games and not that much more. Lynch is the winner for fantasy points by a large margin on this team. Harvin remains the only actual unknown and while he has talent, history says he’ll be inconsistent at best.

Interestingly, Baldwin scores almost all his touchdowns at home while Tate was almost always on the road. That favors Baldwin this week over Harvin. Lynch is always be a factor regardless of venue.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers defense remains average only on a good day and playing in Seattle is never a good day. They allowed 12 running back scores on the road last year along with decent yardage so expect some Skittle-goodness from Lynch who should be in for a very nice first game. The Packers allowed multiple passing scores to any decent opponent last year and this is the big season opener. Consider Wilson, Harvin and Baldwin as all moderate plays but not likely for a big game.

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