Game Predictions & Player Projections - MIA vs BUF

Game Predictions & Player Projections - MIA vs BUF


Game Predictions & Player Projections - MIA vs BUF


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Prediction: MIA 23, BUF 20 (Line: BUF by 1)

Bill Lazor’s new offense brought down the Patriots last week but now they face the Bills who swept the Dolphins in 2013, winning 19-0 in Buffalo and 23-21 at Miami. The Bills come off a shocking win over the Bears in Chicago. This is a coin flip game since the two teams are divisional rivals still not certain how good they are this season.

Miami Dolphins

1 NE 33-20 10 @DET —–
2 @BUF —– 11 BUF —–
3 KC —– 12 @DEN —–
4 @OAK —– 13 @NYJ —–
5 BYE —– 14 BAL —–
6 GB —– 15 @NE —–
7 @CHI —– 16 MIN —–
8 @JAC —– 17 NYJ —–
9 SD —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 240,2
WR Greg Jennings 5-70
TE Jordan Cameron

The defense was responsible for some of that Patriot win to be sure but the new offense produced two passing scores and the addition of Knowshon Moreno helped the rushing effort dramatically for one week at least. If the Fins could win here, they take a step up in the AFC East unlike any in recent years. This week will be a better measurement of progress now that there is at least a little game film on the new offense.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Tannehill passed for 178 yards and two scores in the win over the Patriots with on interception. The most encouraging aspect was his connection with Mike Wallace despite the Patriot’s Darrelle Revis covering him in much of the game. Tannehill passed for 194 yards and three scores when the Bills visited in week seven last year. He was unable to finish the second meeting.

RUNNING BACK : Answers were given. Who will be the primary back in Miami? Knowshon Moreno (24-134, TD) has that locked down so long as he remains healthy. Lamar Miller still ran 11 times for 59 yards and added four catches for 19 yards and a touchdown himself. Either the Patriot rush defense has declined or the Fins are on to something in this new offense. The Dolphins ran for 103 yards and no scores versus the visiting Bills last year. They were held to only 14 yards on 12 runs in Buffalo but that was when Tannehill was injured. Miller was the starting back last week but lost a fumble in the second quarter. It was much heavier usage of Moreno from then on so the ratio of carries may not be anywhere near written in concrete.

WIDE RECEIVER : The positive from week one was Mike Wallace catching a team high seven passes for 81 yards and one score. The downside – no one else had more than two catches of 26 yards. Even Brian Hartline ended with only 26 yards on two catches. That’s a one game outcome so far and not likely to repeat.

Wallace logged 76 yards on five catches at home versus the Bills but later only 38 yards on four receptions. Hartline was held to 53 yards on just two catches.

TIGHT END : Charles Clay was held to only two catches for 27 yards last week. He was held to 32 yards on four catches in Buffalo. He was targeted six times though – more than any other receiver besides Wallace. Too early to assume any decline here.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bills won last week by limiting their mistakes and taking advantage of those by the Bears. They gave up 349 passing yards and two scores to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte ran for 4.8 YPC. Expect a similar approach to this game as las week. Plenty of rushing which should find some success and passing only as much as needed. Moreno is a reasonable start even with the roles still not certain and Miller is a flex play sort of risk. Wallace deserves to start and even Clay is a consideration this week against the team which gave Martellus Bennett a stat line of 8-70-1.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 18 3 21 22 2 9
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 29 18 20 27 15 12

Buffalo Bills

1 @CHI 23-20 10 KC —–
2 MIA —– 11 @MIA —–
3 SD —– 12 NYJ —–
4 @HOU —– 13 CLE —–
5 @DET —– 14 @DEN —–
6 NE —– 15 GB —–
7 MIN —– 16 @OAK —–
8 @NYJ —– 17 @NE —–
9 BYE —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
BUF vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB EJ Manuel 20 200,1
RB LeSean McCoy 50 6-50,1
WR Jarrett Boykin 3-50
WR Sammy Watkins 4-50
WR Robert Woods 4-50
TE Charles Clay 5-60,1
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 2 XP

The Bills are being sold to Buffalo Sabres owner Terry Pegula so the announcers get something new to say along with various Bon Jovi references. The Bills win in Chicago was a real surprise from a team with a 2-6 road record in 2013 and questions at quarterback entering the season. Like so many teams that played well in week one, the Bills get a chance to better gauge themselves against a familiar foe this week and one that they were able to sweep last season.

QUARTERBACK : The Bills signed Kyle Orton to a two-year, $11 million contract right before the start of the season which is one way of saying ” we have major reservations about our current quarterback”. But E.J. Manuel passed for a reasonable 16 of 22 for 173 yards and one score with a second touchdown rushed in. That was enough to win last week and maybe contend here but Manuel still has far to go before Orton gets comfortable on the sideline.

Manuel did not play in either meetings with the Bills last year.

RUNNING BACK : Last week Spiller led the charge with 15 carries for 53 yards while Fred Jackson was limited to seven runs for 61 yards and even Anthony Dixon gained 60 yards on five carries. This is why the Bills won in Chicago and Spiller even added a receiving touchdown. Spiller gained 83 yards on 21 runs when the Bills visited last year. Jackson ran 18 times for 105 yards and one score in that game.

WIDE RECEIVER : Far too early to say what the change here really is. Sammy Watkins (3-31) and Mike Williams (2-36) were not called on that much and Robert Woods (4-78) was the lead receiver. That has to change this week. The Bills are not going to get by with just rushing the ball so watch to see what happens in the wideouts for a better idea what the rest of the season will hold. Or at least until Orton starts.

TIGHT END : Scott Chandler had no receptions and just one pass thrown his way. He has to be considered hands-off for fantasy until he proves otherwise.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Dolphins defense is very good this year and held the Patriots to only 65 yards on 17 carries from their entire backfield. The Bills were better than that last year and in Chicago played very well rushing. Consider Spiller and Jackson still as starters but the test is much bigger this week. Both should have some receptions to help out regardless. But the passing game is still largely unknown and hard to guage. There is no safe start here and even Tom Brady struggled against them. Stick with Spiller and Jackson as the only two reasonable starts here.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 29 8 29 32 6 8
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 12 1 15 10 30 16

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