Beyond TDs and Tackles: Week 2

Beyond TDs and Tackles: Week 2

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Beyond TDs and Tackles: Week 2

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Running Back Worries?

With one week in the books there are people that are already starting to panic about some of their players. The running back position is one of the thinnest, if not the thinnest, positions in all of fantasy football. So it makes sense that owners would be a bit panicked when they see players that had draft ADPs of RB24 or higher ranking outside the top-24 after week one. If you own Jamaal Charles (RB42), Eddie Lacy (RB41), Zac Stacy (RB52), Doug Martin (RB66), Toby Gerhart (RB40), Alfred Morris (RB35) and Ben Tate (RB61) I’m sure you have to feel at least a bit queasy. Some of course were due to injury but no matter the reason, a poor score/ranking doesn’t help your fantasy team.

If you take a look at week one from 2013 you’ll see how a RB can have a poor week one and still end up as a top-24 RB for the year.

Player Week 1 RB Rank End Of Season RB Rank
Knowshon Moreno 29 4
Marshawn Lynch 35 5
Chris Johnson 37 10
Danny Woodhead 52 11
Giovanni Bernard 49 14
Pierre Thomas 27 15
Le’Veon Bell DNP 16
Zac Stacy 80 19
Maurice Jones-Drew 46 21
Rashad Jennings 82 23

Rather than just look at one year I decided to see how the RB position shook out over the past three years. The chart below shows the number of RBs that remain a top-24 RB by week. As you’ll see, you can set your panic and concern aside until about week 4 when on average 71% of the top-24 RBs are set for the rest of the season.

Week # 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
% RBs that finish top-24 62.5% 65.3% 70.8% 73.6% 77.8% 83.3% 83.3%
# RBs that finish top-24 15 16 17 18 19 20 20
Week # 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
% RBs that finish top-24 84.7% 84.7% 88.9% 60.3% 91.7% 90.3% 91.7%
# RBs that finish top-24 20 20 21 22 22 22 22

With all of that said, I’m very concerned about Jamaal Charles, Zac Stacy and Doug Martin. Lovie Smith denied my report (jump to 2:30) that Doug Martin was benched for missing blitz pickups and not due to a knee injury. Believe what you may, but I believe my source. Additionally, Greg Cosell, in an interview on 98.7 The Fan, said, “I was disappointed in him in all areas. I think he looked very stiff as a runner. I don’t think that he looked like he has much looseness in his hips. In some ways he kind of reminded me of what we’ve seen out of Trent Richardson. Just very stiff. And the most disconcerting thing, which will limit his snaps if it continues, is he was terrible in pass protection. And that will limit his snaps.” Being compared to Trent Richardson is NEVER a good thing. I’m not advocating dumping Martin for Bobby Rainey…at least not yet, but you need to watch how he does in pass protection VERY closely.

I’m also concerned about Jamaal Charles. Not because he lacks talent but because of his OL and how bad the offense looks to be. Zac Stacy is another player that I’d look to flip as soon as he shows any sort of plus production that will allow you to move him.

The Frisman Jackson Warning

Who is Frisman Jackson you ask? He’s one of a long line of week one wonders that wowed fantasy owners at the start of a season. Back in 2005, Jackson scored 26.8 fantasy points in week one. He surely was one hot waiver wire pickup for fantasy owners. After that big week one, he went on to score just 30.5 fantasy points the rest of the season. Jackson isn’t the only player to have a big week one either. Kevin Ogletree kicked off 2012 by scoring 31.4 points …he went on to score just 58.6 points the rest of the season. In 2008, Panthers then TE, Dante Rosario opened the season by scoring 22.6 points…the rest of the season he scored a grand total of 22.3 points. Buyers of Allen Hurns, you have been warned. If you want to watch a WR, then watch his teammate, Marqiss Lee. Lee had a solid 6 catch, 62 yard game in week one but what I really liked seeing was that he was targeted 10 times (Hurns was targeted 9 times). Keep an eye on how Hurns targets are impacted when Cecil Shorts gets back on the field.

#ZeroQBTheorem

Are you a draft your QB late or early fantasy footballer? If there’s any doubt which one I am just read, Dissecting QB Value In Fantasy Football and you’ll have your answer. If you were an early QB drafter then you can’t be happy with the performance of Aaron Rodgers. Granted he was playing the Seahawks, but when you drafted him you did so expecting a big advantage on a weekly basis and you know what, you didn’t get it. Drink the following chart in and then reassess your fantasy draft strategy and file away your findings for next year.

Player Week 1 Ranking ADP
Matt Ryan 1 QB8
Andrew Luck 2 QB4
Matthew Stafford 3 QB5
Carson Palmer 4 QB18
Peyton Manning 5 QB1
Jay Cutler 6 QB11
Nick Foles 7 QB6
Jake Locker 8 QB28
Chad Henne 9 QB38
Ben Roethlisberger 10 QB17
E.J. Manuel 11 QB29
Russell Wilson 12 QB13

Here’s a look at how the six QBs that had ADPs of QB12 or better fared in week 1.

Player Week 1 Rank ADP
Aaron Rodgers 29 QB2
Drew Brees 17 QB3
Tom Brady 25 QB7
Cam Newton DNP QB9
Colin Kaepernick 18 QB10
Robert Griffin III 30 QB12

Points Mean Points

This is my third straight year appearing on 620 WDAE with Steve Duemig every Friday during the season from 5-6pm. One of the things that Steve is always looking at is the over/under for games and he has a great point in why. For starters look at the over/under of 37 for the Rams/Buccaneers game compared to the over/under of 54 for the Eagles/Colts game. How is that valuable for fantasy reasons? Well, the guys from Vegas that set the lines are pretty smart guys and what they are telling you, without exactly saying it in these words, is that there’s going to be a lot more fantasy points scored in the Eagles/Colts game than there will be in the Rams/Buccaneers game. I’m not making 100% of my fantasy decisions based on over/under numbers but if I’m torn between two guys I will use it as a tiebreaker of sort. 

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