When you play DFS at multiple sites it pays to notice pricing trends on player tiers. What I mean is that this week on FanDuel the price difference between the top three quarterbacks and the second tier guys is decidedly less than the difference in price between their top two tiers of running backs and wide receivers. In addition, quarterbacks in general are more expensive at FanDuel. When lower tier players like Eli Manning and E.J. Manuel are going for high 6000’s. Why throw 6900 at Geno Smith when Colin Kaepernick is only 1500 more?

This split is also identifiable at tight end; where Julius Thomas is only $1800 more than Jason Witten. Contrast that with DraftKings where the difference in price between the two is $3300. When Thomas’ value is that close to Witten’s, I am never playing Witten at FanDuel. The opposite holds true at DraftKings where I am seldom playing Thomas when I can get Witten for so much less. I’d rather save that financial advantage to pay the extra $700 to get Peyton Manning rather than Nick Foles.

In general FanDuel’s prices are higher across the board causing you to mix and match more bottom of the barrel guys if you want any premium plays making it the biggest challenge this time out.

Oh yeah, that is not a typo Calvin Johnson is only at $6900 on FantasyScore, I know it is Carolina but that’s gonna be hard to ignore.

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Quarterback

Your Fantasy Four Pack

Peyton Manning, Broncos vs. Chiefs

The only way that Peyton Manning doesn’t lead the position in points this week is if he is pulled at the half. I doubt that that will happen though as he is the ultimate competitor and he knows how important rivalry games are. The Chiefs’ defense was already a step back from last year, now they lost two more starters to injury. Peyton passed for 720-6 in the two contests with KC last year and he has three or more touchdowns in 11/17 regular season games since the start of last year.

Drew Brees, Saints @ Browns

The Cleveland Browns’ stats suggest a decent pass defense. Tom Brady was the only quarterback to throw for more than 261 yards against them last season. Unfortunately, they couldn’t carry that trend into Week 1 as Ben Roethlisberger beat them to the tune of 365 yards. Drew Brees has the weapons and skills to post similar numbers to Big Ben.

Andrew Luck, Colts vs. Eagles

Only Minnesota allowed more passing yards per game than the Eagles did last year. On nine different occasions they allowed an opposing offense to throw for more than 290 yards. Andrew Luck piled up lots of yardage (albeit a lot in garbage time) and three total touchdowns against an elite Denver pass defense. Just think about what kind of damage he can do to these ham-and-eggers.

Colin Kaepernick, Niners vs. Bears                                 

In Colin Kaepernick’s only career matchup with the Bears, he passed for only 243-2 and he only got ten yards on the ground. That was back when the Bears had a legitimate rushing defense. The last two years their rushing defense has been in need of criminal defense. You know that Kaepernick had to see the tape of noodle-armed, E.J. Manuel rolling a 91.7 QB-Rating against them. You also know he saw Manuel score that touchdown to the chagrin of Fred Jackson owners. Colin will get at least the 243-2 he posted last time out and he will score at least once on the ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes the game with in excess of 50 rushing yards.

Sleepers

Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins @ Bills

Buffalo has a very good defensive line yet they still got eviscerated by Jay Cutler last week. Cutler threw for 349-2 despite having both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery injured at various points in the game. You think that they miss Jairus Byrd? Ryan Tannehill has four career starts against Buffalo and he has never thrown for more than 194 yards against them. He also has sustained 14 sacks over that span. He did get three touchdowns against the Bills in one of those starts last year, but he was skunked and knocked out of the other one. The difference this time will be the lack of Byrd and the absence of injured linebacker Kiko Alonso. Plus he is $4000 cheaper than Peyton on FanDuel.

Jake Locker, Titans vs. Cowboys

Here is another third year quarterback with a chance to shine this week. The Cowboys defense was historically (hysterically) bad last year. This year they are worse. Dallas finished with the third most passing yards per game allowed last season despite the fact that people didn’t even have to throw against them because they also allowed the seventh most rushing yards per game. Colin Kaepernick and Vernon Davis went Katana on their secondary. Don’t think I won’t look to take advantage of this mismatch if I need to save a few bucks at QB.

Prices indicated: Green = Drinkable and Red = Dumpable

Running Back

Your Fantasy Four Pack

LeSean McCoy, Eagles @ Colts

In 2013, only three teams allowed more rushing touchdowns per game than Indianapolis, now their top two linebackers are set to miss this game due to injuries. I was correct about Darren Sproles cutting into LeSean McCoy’s reception totals but he still got his fair share and there is no question which guy will get the rock at the stripe. Indy gave up 110 total yards and a score to the Denver rushing game last week once Peyton agreed to share. I expect Nick Foles to be much more sharing with his backfield and wouldn’t be surprised if McCoy and Sproles combined to approach 200 total yards in this contest.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings vs. Patriots

It would appear that somebody forgot to remind the Patriots that it is hot in Miami. Their defense was huffing and puffing chasing around the undead corpse of Knowshon Moreno and the perennially mediocre Lamar Miller. They actually allowed a total of 212-2 to the running back position. It will be much cooler temperature-wise in Minnesota but the fact remains that Moreno and Miller couldn’t carry Adrian Peterson’s jock on their best day. Adrian may have been one week early on his first play from scrimmage TD prediction.

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks @ Chargers

News of Marshawn Lynch’s imminent departure from grace was apparently premature. He absolutely abused Green Bay opening day. San Diego allowed 141 total yards to Arizona’s backfield including eleven receptions. I know Lynch isn’t super active in the passing game but he isn’t useless in it either. Considering that DFS leagues reward a full point per reception you cannot ignore that eleven receptions allowed figure.

Montee Ball, Broncos vs. Chiefs

I mentioned above that the Chiefs suffered two huge injuries to their defense. That is not what you want to hear when you are about to face the best offense in football. Last week, the Chiefs gave up 176 total yards to opposing running backs. Not to mention, that they allowed nearly five yards per carry to the poster boy for mediocrity, Shonn Greene. Montee Ball managed only 67 rushing yards in Week 1, but 55 of those came after contact so you know he was running with chutzpah. He also scored the first of many touchdowns that he will accrue this season. With the game out of hand early, Ball should be the clock eater in the second half. At least until they pull him for C.J. Anderson or Ronnie Hillman. In a back-up role over two games, Ball destroyed KC last year posting 162 total yards and two scores. I don’t feel I am reaching in expecting 135 total yards and a pair of scores here.

Sleepers

Knowshon Moreno, Dolphins @ Bills

News of Knowshon Moreno’s departure was also premature. 134-1 later and people wised up quickly. So many people waited in line at the pickup join Tuesday morning to blow their FABB wad on Moreno. Kudos to those of you brave enough to draft or keep him from last year despite the questions circling him. He is battling a shoulder injury so make sure you pay close attention to Friday and Saturday’s practice reports, but it appears he will be good to go. Buffalo just allowed Matt Forte to layeth the smacketh down on them to the tune of 169 total yards. I expect Moreno to combine with Lamar Miller to produce numbers similar to that. Not bad for $2300 less than Forte.

Rashad Jennings, Giants vs. Cardinals             

The only positive part of the Giants’ offense last week was Rashad Jennings. When everything else went wrong Jennings accounted for nearly 50% of the G-Men’s total yards. More importantly for Jennings he got all the goal line love (including a short touchdown), something that Andre Williams threatened during the preseason. Arizona dominated the San Diego rushing attack week 1, but they did allow Ryan Mathews to score a touchdown. I have to assume that New York will swing him several passes which should account to a decent DFS score especially at that $5100 DraftKings price tag.

Prices indicated: Green = Drinkable and Red = Dumpable

Wide Receiver

*special note I don’t like the matchup but Megatron for $6900 at FantasyScore is just begging to be played

Your Fantasy Four Pack

A.J. Green, Bengals vs. Falcons

A.J. Green absolutely dominated Week 1 for the Bengals going off with a line of 6-131-1. This week he faces a team that just got done allowing 333 yards to Drew Brees and Co. Only three teams allowed more passing touchdowns per game than Atlanta last season. They really haven’t improved their coverage making this game a potential pinball affair. I’m a little concerned about his injury status going into this game, but if he practices on Friday and Saturday than I will be comfortable with him. If he doesn’t practice on Friday I’d downgrade him tremendously.

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos vs. Chiefs

Something tells me Demaryius Thomas wasn’t too happy about being shutout of the end zone this past week. Of course a lot of the blame goes at his own feet because he dropped a few passes. It wasn’t like he wasn’t getting thrown at. Peyton targeted him the most of all the Broncos weapons. Last year he topped 100 yards in both matchups but didn’t score in either of them. The scores will come starting this week and they will come in bunches!

Percy Harvin, Seahawks @ Chargers

Considering how often Percy Harvin touched the ball on opening day, I was amazed to find that he was only on the field for 56% of their snaps. Despite the short snap count, Harvin accumulated 100 total offensive yards. He also added 60 yards on kick returns, in case you get points for those in your league. With Larry Fitzgerald dinged up, Michael Floyd took San Diego to the woodshed last week. In total, the Chargers allowed 205 yards to the Cards wide receivers. I don’t think they have the speed to stop Harvin in any element of his game. My early prediction 145 total yards, eight receptions, and at least one long score. I would not be shocked if he finished this week as the top overall scorer amongst wide receivers.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals @ Giants

The New York Giants allowed 13-257-2 to the Lions’ receiving corps in Week 1. A lot of that came at the hands of Calvin Johnson. Bruce Arians said they wouldn’t force the ball to Larry Fitzgerald…most of the time responses such as that are coach-speak for “ok we’ll give you the targets you and your father are complaining about on Twitter”. In addition, Fitz was bothered by a knee issue Week 1 which undoubtedly played a role in his decrepit line. Fitz is a physical beast like Megatron; I could see him posting 100-1 without much challenge here.

Sleepers

Kendall Wright, Titans vs. Cowboys

Considering how awful Dallas’ defense was in the first game of the season, it should surprise no one that I like Tennessee to win this game. Justin Hunter is dinged up right now, so that is one less end zone weapon to steal looks from Wright. Kendall hauled in a six-yard score last week as part of a 6-46-1 line. Wright is $2000 less than the top tier WRs but he should produce a solid line and I would not be surprised if his receptions and yardage doubles this week to the 12-100 range.

Anquan Boldin, Niners vs. Bears           

Anquan Boldin once again paid possession receiver gold Week 1 with a line of 8-99 against a horrible Cowboys defense. My biggest fear with Boldin is, “If Michael Crabtree is unable to go will he’ll be asked to try and do more than he is capable of?” If they both are good to go I could see a similar line for him this week and that ain’t bad for $3000 less than the top tier guys.

Prices indicated: Green = Drinkable and Red = Dumpable

Tight End

Your Fantasy Four Pack

Rob Gronkowski, Patriots @ Vikings

Rob Gronkowski played less than half of the snaps Week 1 against Miami. When he did he dominated Tom Brady’s line of sight racking up eleven targets on only 36 plays. If he plays twice as many snaps will he get 22 targets? He finished with only 4-40-1 for a line but again double that for a full game’s worth of snaps and you get 8-80-2. Oh yeah, Minnesota sucked at covering tight ends last year too.

Julius Thomas, Broncos vs. Chiefs

Three scores Week 1 on seven receptions and 104 yards; that is just another day at the office for Julius Thomas. With Wes Welker out once again expect more of Orange Julius this week. Julius scored in one of the games against KC last year and missed the other one. Meanwhile the Chiefs allowed Delanie Walker to score against them last week. I’m not gonna predict another hat trick, but 6-80-1 seems like the floor. Also pay close attention to how low his salary is at FantasyScore, sign him and use that savings on another position.

Jimmy Graham, Saints @ Browns

The consensus number one tight end coming into the season falls to number three on my list this week. It is not that I’m overly concerned about him (unless Cleveland has Joe Haden shadow him); I just prefer Gronk and Julius this time out. This game will likely be one-sided and I doubt that Graham will allow himself to be shut out in back-to-back contests. If Cleveland isn’t careful they could need to put some extra support under their goalposts. He should be good for at least one touchdown this time around.

Greg Olsen, Panthers vs. Lions            

The Detroit Lions’ secondary could be called a third-dary or fourth-dary based on the fact that they continue to lose “able-bodied” (and I use that term extremely loosely) defensive backs. Greg Olsen was targeted eleven times finishing with an 8-83-1 line despite having Derek Anderson throwing wounded ducks at him. With the return of Cam Newton and only Kelvin Benjamin to share looks with, I could expect him to once again approach double-digit catches and likely surpass 100 yards.

Sleepers

Larry Donnell, Giants vs. Cardinals

This is my weekly take advantage of the awful Arizona Cardinals’ defense against tight ends memorial pick. Last year Arizona allowed the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to the position. I expected Ladarius Green to decimate the Cards Week 1. Of course, Antonio Gates rose from the ashes like a Phoenix and stole Green’s thunder. Arizona still allowed eight receptions and 105 yards to San Diego’s combined TE pairing. Meanwhile, Larry Donnell came out of nowhere to establish himself as the lead dog amongst the Giants’ receiving tight ends hauling in 5-56-1. I did mention his $3000 salary on DraftKings, right?

Levine Toilolo, Falcons @ Bengals

With injuries potentially keeping Jordan Cameron and Jordan Reed out this week, we need to reach way deep to find a great sleeper at tight end. Enter Tony Gonzalez Levine Toilolo! At $4000 less than the top tier tight ends, Toilolo is a super steal especially if he scores again like he did Week 1. He looks particularly sexy when you look at the line Cincinnati allowed to Baltimore. Week 1, they allowed Dennis Pitta and friends to post 14-117-0 on 20 targets. Baltimore obviously realized that Cincy has a soft spot there.

Prices indicated: Green = Drinkable and Red = Dumpable