Game Predictions & Player Projections - IND vs JAC

Game Predictions & Player Projections - IND vs JAC

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Game Predictions & Player Projections - IND vs JAC

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Prediction: IND 30, JAC 17 (Line: IND by 7)

UPDATE: Marqise Lee is out because of a hamstring strain and was removed from the projections. Hakeem Nicks is questionable to play because of illness and missed the last two practices. I am leaving his projections alone but it is worth tracking on Sunday if you want to start him.

Divisional games can go in all different directions with familiar teams playing each other. But the Colts have not scored fewer than 27 points and the Jaguars have not scored more than 17. I like the Colts a lot in this one. Even more so with the Jaguars allowing about 35 points per game.

The Colts won 37-3 in Jacksonville last year.

Indianapolis Colts

1 @DEN 24-31 10 BYE —–
2 PHI 27-30 11 NE  —–
3 @JAC —– 12 JAC —–
4 TEN —– 13 WAS —–
5 BAL —– 14 @CLE —–
6 @HOU —– 15 HOU —–
7 CIN —– 16 @DAL —–
8 @PIT —– 17 @TEN —–
9 @NYG —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 280,2
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 40 5-30,1
RB Frank Gore 60,1 1-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 5-60
TE Dwayne Allen 3-30
PK Adam Vinatieri 3 FG 3 XP

Tough loss on Monday night to the Eagles but the Colts defense has drawn no favors from having to face the Broncos and Eagles in their first two games. It should calm down significantly with the Jaguars, Titans and Ravens up next. The rushing offense still could be better but the passing game remains a strength. This is a short week but the biggest concern is that the Colts lose interest and leave a lot of points left on the table.

QUARTERBACK : Andrew Luck already has five passing scores and a rushing touchdown as well. Starting out at 370 yards in week one, he only passed for 172 in Philly though with three scores. The rushing effort was better there and took up the slack that normally calls for Luck to throw the ball.

Luck passed for 257 yards and two scores in Jacksonville last year.

RUNNING BACK : Trent Richardson had some impressive moments when he ran for 79 yards on 21 carries against the Eagles. But Ahmad Bradshaw (13-70) did more with less and added five catches for 26 yards and two touchdowns. The Eagles rushing defense is weak but Bradshaw looked like the better runner. The split will remain and eventually Bradshaw will be injured anyway.

Richardson gained 60 yards and one touchdown on 20 carries in Jacksonville last season.

WIDE RECEIVER : Last week saw T.Y. Hilton improve a but with 65 yards on six catches but he is still lagging his fine 2013 performance. That also has to do with the opponents and what they are choosing to focus on. Reggie Wayne went from 98 yards in the opener to only 28 yards on three catches. The Eagles secondary has far exceeded expectations though and the Broncos defense is improved as well. This week will be the first time the Colts will play without going against an actual defense.

Hilton was held to only four catches for 45 yards in Jacksonville last year but Reggie Wayne managed 100 yards and a score on five catches.

TIGHT END : Dwayne Allen was blanked last week and that quickly ended the good will his 4-64-1 season opener had bought him. The Colts trotted out Jack Doyle to add to the mix and he scored once against the Eagles. It all boils down to never use a Colts tight end.

Fleener turned in 77 yards and a score on five receptions in Jacksonville.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This is so good that the natural concern is that the Colts let up and just beat them without bombing them with touchdowns like the Skins and Eagles did. This is the Jags home opener but they already allowed an NFL high 75 points. That is 14 points more than any other team. Everyone throws for 250 yards and two scores on them. Everyone runs in at least one rushing score though the Skins ran in three. Start your Colts this week and just hope they don’t find mercy in their heart. This is a divisional matchup so the points could count for tie breakers at the end.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 1 7 13 13 18 30
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 30 31 17 30 26 32

Jacksonville Jaguars

1 @PHI 17-34 10 DAL —–
2 @WAS 10-41 11 BYE —–
3 IND —– 12 @IND —–
4 @SD —– 13 NYG —–
5 PIT —– 14 HOU —–
6 @TEN —– 15 @BAL —–
7 CLE —– 16 TEN —–
8 MIA —– 17 @HOU —–
9 @CIN —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 240,2
RB Chris Ivory 50,1 1-10
RB Bernard Pierce 70,1
WR Allen Hurns 3-50,1
WR Marqise Lee
TE Julius Thomas 4-50,1

At 0-2, this is not a good team. Bad enough the defense has given away far more points than any other team. The offense is ranked dead last in running backs and whatever passing happens tends to be later in the game when the defense is just defending the deep bomb. This is a very young team and will improve but it may take a while to see that first win. Aside from a couple of lucky long connections in the home opener, there has been very little offense to speak of here.

QUARTERBACK : Chad Henne threw for 266 yards and two scores in the opener thanks to Allen Hurns but then only managed 193 yards and one score in Washington when they knew to watch Hurns (who was still overthrown on a sure touchdown last week). Henne is just a seat warmer for whenever Blake Bortles is ready to take over. Henne was sacked ten times in Washington. That should send Bortles looking for his helmet soon.

RUNNING BACK : Toby Gerhart ran for only 42 yards on 18 carries in Philly and that seemed bad. Until he only gained eight yards on seven runs in Washington. Barring a dream matchup, Gerhart cannot be considered for a fantasy start until the offense improves.

WIDE RECEIVER : The good news is that Cecil Shorts said he will return this week. Both Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee laid an egg last week with only two short catches each. This is a very young crew and could use the veteran presence of Shorts at least until he is injured yet again in a few weeks. There is no consistency with the passing game so far and as it stands, the consistency will just be “bad” unless Bortles shows up and exceeds expectations.

TIGHT END : The Jags put Marcedes Lewis on injured reserve/designated to return. That leaves Clay Harbor as the last man standing and he is coming off a calf injury. Which is another way of saying no fantasy value here.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jags are in their home opener which should help. But nothing from Gerhart so far suggests that any big turnaround is imminent. the Colts are weak against tight ends but you cannot rely on Clay Harbor yet. Look for at least incremental improvement for all from playing at home, but none of these players are appealing for a fantasy start.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 19 32 9 17 29 14
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 29 30 3 31 24 19

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