Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: KC 14, MIA 24 (Line: MIA by 4.5)

UPDATE: Charles Clay is questionable because of his knee but is expected to play at least a limited role depending on how it holds up. Jamaal Charles has been able to practice on a limited basis this week and has not been ruled out. He will be a game time decision. That makes starting him or Knile Davis a risky move since this is a later afternoon game. I am leaving the projections for Davis the same but realize that Charles could play and give Davis far less work. This is only a safe situation for team owners who have both Charles and Davis. Check the pregame status before locking in either Davis or Charles.

The 0-2 Chiefs are starting their year out exactly like 2013 only opposite. The 1-1 Dolphins return home after being flattened by the Bills. Have to like the Fins back at home where they last took down the Patriots.

Evidently the Chiefs never got that memo about the NFL being a passing league. After two weeks full of a need to throw long, the Chiefs are unable to compete using just their passing ability. And that is mostly all they have since Jamaal Charles is out with a high ankle sprain (note – Charles was both the leading rusher AND receiver for the Chiefs last year). The offensive line that was once such a strength now appears to be a liability. Problem is that the schedule is not getting any better.

QUARTERBACK : Alex Smith has only managed one touchdown pass this year and is averaging 225 yards per game. He’s thrown three interceptions but at least has Dwayne Bowe back for yet another underperforming wide receiver. The Chiefs are the only team that takes on a rebuilding project, starts at the point of most success and then declines.

RUNNING BACK : Jamaal Charles has a high ankle sprain and the severity is not known other than HC Andy Reid saying “doesn’t look to be a real severe one.” Whatever that means, it appears he will not play this week. That gives Knile Davis the start and he’s been very capable in the past. Davis only gained 79 yards on 22 runs in Denver last week but scored twice and recorded six catches for 26 yards. He is not Charles, but he can get fairly close. Particularly since defenses do not play him the same as they do for Charles.

WIDE RECEIVER : Just as bad as 2013, this unit contains no fantasy relevancy. Dwayne Bowe (3-40) returned from suspension with no real impact. No one here has caught a touchdown and only Donnie Avery has managed to gain more than 50 yards in any game. This group is limited by Smith to be fair, but any quarterback is not going to produce much with this crew.

TIGHT END : If there is any bright spot, it would be the play of Travis Kelce who comes off a four catch, 81 yard effort in Denver. He’s one of the rare tight ends with speed and is averaging almost 19 yards per catch in a position that usually produces only half that much. Kelce is the only receiver here with upside and the team desperately needs players to step up.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The problem here is that the Fins only allow the standard 200 yard, one score that Alex Smith produces only on a good day. And this is in Miami. Worse yet, the Fins have been very good against the run with just one score allowed and no one with more than 69 rush yards against them. Davis is still worth a start this week but the only other fantasy play is Kelce in a large league.

The Dolphins were drubbed in Buffalo and now the question is which team is the real one? The one that beat the Patriots? This week or even next week probably won’t help going against two of the weakest teams in the NFL. The week five bye is early but if Miami can get there with a 3-1 record, they can contend in the AFC East which seems more open this year than it has in many years. Which is just another way of saying what is up with the Patriots?

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Tannehill throws at least one touchdown each week but the yardage is not much and he’s tossed a pick in both matchups. The positive is that he’s thrown scores in both weeks to Mike Wallace and their connection was the focus of the passing game this summer. The passing game is not where it needs to be, but at least it is showing progress.

RUNNING BACK : Knowshon Moreno remains out for the next month or two and Lamar Miller injured his ankle last week. But Miller was able to practice on Tuesday and should be able to start. The Dolphins also re-signed Daniel Thomas for depth while Moreno remains out. Miller is averaging 4.7 yards per carry so far but only received 11 carries in Buffalo when that game went bad. Back at home he’s in line for more carries this week.

WIDE RECEIVER : Mike Wallace has two touchdowns and is getting around six catches for 70 yards per week. That’s a much needed development that was missing last year. But no other receiver has done much. Even Brian Hartline has a season high three catches for 27 yards. Now that Tannehill has established more chemistry with Wallace, he has to figure out how to do that without excluding every one else.

TIGHT END : Charles Clay caught seven passes last week but only gained 31 yards. He had just 27 yards in the win over the Patriots. Clay was an effective weapon in 2013 but has yet to matter for 2014.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chiefs have allowed at least 240 yards and two passing scores in both games so far and one was to Jake Locker. The Chiefs are allowing 4.9 yards per carry to running backs which bodes well for Lamar Miller who should take a much bigger workload this week. They also gave up three touchdowns to tight ends and two for the #1 wideout of the opposing team. That matches up with Miller, Wallace and Clay all at home.

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