Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: SF 23, ARI 17 (Line: SF by 3)

UPDATE: Carson Palmer is expected to miss this week with his nerve damage and Drew Stanton will get the start. Vernon Davis missed all practices this week and is a game-time decision. I am lowering his projections and he may not play.

The 49ers looked great demolishing the Cowboys but then dropped their very first home opener in the new stadium in a game filled with errors and missed opportunities. The Cardinals are 2-0 and that win over the Chargers looks more impressive now that they beat the Seahawks. No matter here – this is a divisional game and both teams are familiar with each other. After such a bad showing last week, the 49ers will be primed to get back into W column.

The 49ers won 23-20 in Arizona last year. They also beat them 32-20 in San Francisco.

Last week was just one of many upsets in the NFL where a team played great in week one and then flopped in what seemed to be an easier matchup. This is the first divisional game and the 49ers have a mostly lighter schedule for the next month. A win here will go a long way to making those two late season matchups with the Seahawks still matter. Nothing is more focusing than blowing your first night in a billion dollar stadium. That tends to get noticed.

QUARTERBACK : While Colin Kaepernick only passed for 248 yards and one score last week, he ran nine times for 66 yards as the leading rusher. He also tossed three interceptions and was clearly out of synch with his receivers. This should be a bounce back for Kaepernick and he passed for 310 yards and two scores in Arizona last year.

RUNNING BACK : Unfortunately, the addition of Carlos Hyde has really only served to split up what moderate yardage that Frank Gore is contributing. Two straight weeks and Gore only ran for exactly 63 yards in each. He scored against the Bears while Hyde scored in Dallas. Gore will get his carries first and Hyde doesn’t come into play until the game is well in hand – likely not to happen this week.

Gore only gained 14 yards on 13 runs in Arizona last time.

WIDE RECEIVER : Michael Crabtree (7-82, TD) showed up last week but was held to only 25 yards on two catches in Dallas. Anquan Boldin is following his old formula. Blow up in the season opener (8-99) and then fade away from fantasy relevance (2-34). With Vernon Davis ailing from his ankle injury, the wideouts will need to matter more this week against a tough secondary.

Boldin went off on his old team last year, gaining 149 yards and a score on nine catches. Crabtree only had three catches for 29 yards there.

TIGHT END : Vernon Davis was yanked down from behind and got his legs caught underneath him. The result is a deeply bruised ankle but no structural damage was found on the MRI. He may still play this week but it will depend on practices and how he feels later in the week. I will assume a slightly limited Davis plays and update as warranted.

Davis scored in both meetings with the Cards last season but only totaled 45 yards on three catches in Arizona.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Cardinals defense remains one of the better overall units in the league. So far they have faced the Chargers who totaled only 43 rushing yards when they visited. Philip Rivers passed for only 238 yards and one score. But since Carson Palmer is likely out, that skews the Cardinals offense significantly. Patrick Peterson should match on Boldin but that was the case before and Boldin still did well. Expect very moderate numbers from all the 49ers. Davis would be a strong start as long as he proves healthy but overall the numbers should be lower across the board.

Nice to start 2-0 and nicer still to face the woeful Giants as one of your road games. But the Cardinals had good timing then to lose Carson Palmer – chances are that Drew Stanton is not going find the 49ers as accommodating. The defense will keep the score close and the 49ers are not the juggernaut that was once thought. But this will be uphill this week with Palmer out.

QUARTERBACK : Carson Palmer is out with a bruised nerve in his shoulder and Palmer himself was not sure when he would return. This is a late game and he may be a game time decision but the Cardinals really need him to compete this week. Drew Stanton may have been the winning pitcher in New York but he only completed 14 of 29 for 167 yards and no scores. I will assume that Palmer stays out and update as warranted. He carries a big bearing on the outcome of this game and the fortunes of the fantasy players.

Palmer passed for 407 yards and two scores on the visiting 49ers last time.

RUNNING BACK : Andre Ellington is still playing through pain with his foot that has a tear in it. He has been limited to only 15 carries at most though even though he was gaining over six yards per carry in New York. Jonathan Dwyer took the rushing touchdown and carried nine times for 31 yards. Neither back was used as a receiver much though in the season opener in a closer game Ellington received five passes.

Ellington was held to only 30 rush yards on the 49ers last year.

WIDE RECEIVER : Shades of last year. Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t gained more than 51 yards in a game so far and the only wideout with a touchdown is the rookie John Brown who has just three catches for 35 yards on the year. Michael Floyd has fared better with a 119 yard effort against the Chargers but with Stanton playing he had just one catch. Stanton was much better connecting with Fitzgerald than Floyd but neither produced any significant stats.

Fitzgerald (6-113). Floyd (6-91) and even Andre Roberts (3-74) went off on the visiting 49ers last year.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This all depends on the starting quarterback. The 49ers are still without CB Tramaine Brock and that could help Floyd. And Brandon Marshall just scored three times last week. If Palmer plays, he can be started for a moderate risk/reward and Fitzgerald and Floyd as reasonable plays. Ellington is worth a start regardless but he’ll be the only strong play if Stanton gets the start.

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