Daily Fantasy Domination: Week 3

Daily Fantasy Domination: Week 3

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Daily Fantasy Domination: Week 3

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So last week was a painful week both literally and figuratively. I got skunked on FantasyScore and salvaged the week with just a few small wins on DraftKings. I need to go on record and state my claim that injuries were the biggest culprit. That and me not re-subbing Brandon Marshall back into my lineups at 6:00 when he announced that he would play.

This leads me to my first lesson for the week, if you have players going in the late games or on MNF, make sure to re-verify your roster before those games as well. Sunday Morning, I overplayed the Alshon/Marshall Chicago issue and benched Cutler and benched Marshall. To make matters worse I actually picked up Santoni-zero Holmes and dropped him into a couple of my lineups. The problem was I was at my parent’s 50th Anniversary Dinner at 6:00 PM Sunday when it became clear that Marshall would play and I had no easy way to make the change. Ok so maybe I need to better prioritize, I’m sure my parents’ next 50th Anniversary will be equally fun. There is money on the line here folks!

The second DFS lesson to pull from all these injuries is that certain sites take time to update their algorithms to reflect injury replacements (see Khiry Robinson and Donald Brown). It is your responsibility to SMASH these computer oversights, especially in small leagues and 50-50s. Of course be forewarned in GPP large leagues everyone will be in on these super steals so don’t over push on this advantage or it’ll ultimately end up hurting you. To help you identify these “You’ve Got to be Kidding Me” deals I’ve added a new color scheme to our Drink it and Dump It charts. If you see a player tinted BLUE that is a deal that you should not pass up – we’re calling it The Top Shelf Option!

A trend to consider this week is that FanDuel with its higher prices make their most expensive QBs also their best values. After all there is only $1200 separating Aaron Rodgers from Cam Newton. In that situation I am never choosing Newton over Rodgers.


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Quarterback

Weekly Strategy – The second-tier QBs are way over-priced compared to their first-tier and third-tier brethren. Target a top three guy or slough the position.

Your Fantasy Four Pack

Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ DET

Only ten teams allowed more passing yards per game than Detroit last season. So far this year they have held #EliFace in relative check but they allowed Cam Newton and his Zero-WR offense to total 300 yards (including 281 through the air).  Aaron Rodgers has the skills to exploit a depleted Lions’ secondary, but it should be warned that he has not dominated the Lions in recent history. Considering what the second tier of quarterbacks are going for this week, I’d rather go with the proven veteran Rodgers coming off a stellar game against a reasonably decent Jets defense.

Andrew Luck, Colts @ JAX

Only seven teams have allowed more passing yards per game this season. They also allowed the fifth most passing touchdowns so far, which is close to the pace from last year when they allowed the sixth most passing touchdowns per game. Andrew Luck has started strong netting five touchdowns through the first two weeks. In addition, he has averaged 293 total yards and 1.75 touchdowns per game over his four career starts against the Jaguars. I’m guessing 300 total yards and two TDs is his floor this time out.

Drew Brees, Saints vs. MIN

This is where we find out if the Vikings pass defense is really as good as they have seemed the first two weeks. As a Minnesota homer my first thought is it really isn’t. Last year Minnesota allowed the most pass completions, the most passing touchdowns, and the second most passing yards. Drew Brees will get to unmask this fraudulent front. Last year he had eleven games with more than 300 yards passing. Minnesota will spend the rest of the year looking back fondly on their matchups against a non-throwing Tom Brady and something called Austin Davis as their passing yards per game slowly rise up week-to-week.

Nick Foles, Eagles vs. WAS

This matchup will be the big stack favorite for the week. The NFC Least is easy picking for opposing quarterbacks and when two match up against each other it becomes a favorite for point orgy status. Washington has allowed the undead corpses of Chad Henne and Ryan Fitzpatrick to average 200 yards per game over the first two weeks. In two career starts against Washington, Nick Foles has only one passing touchdown but he also has posted 643 passing yards.  The 300 yard game is a guarantee this week and multiple touchdowns should finally fall into alignment for him. At $1400 less than Rodgers on FanDuel he is a virtual must start.

Sleepers

Tony Romo, Cowboys @ STL

St. Louis was supposed to have a great defense this year. Then they lost Jake Long for an extended period of time. What has happened is that they have a total of one sack over their first two weeks, despite facing two rotten quarterbacks. Tony Romo is an easy quarterback to rattle, but first you have to actually get there. If you can’t get to Romo, you cannot rattle him. If you cannot rattle him, you can’t expect him to go into suck mode. When Romo doesn’t go into suck mode, he can actually be pretty useful. Last year he had ten starts with multiple passing touchdowns including a three TD performance against the Rams. The best part about Romo is he costs nearly $3000 less than the top tier QBs on DraftKings and $2000 less than the top tier on FanDuel.

Geno Smith, Jets vs. CHI             

Geno Smith has been a fine QB2-superflex option for the first two weeks. He has only averaged 200 yards passing per game and he only has one passing touchdown in each game, but his value is on the ground. Dating back to last year, Smith has nine games with more than 20 yards rushing. He also has five games with more than 40 yards rushing. He also racked up six rushing touchdowns last year to go with one already this year. Chicago is currently allowing the most rushing yards to opposing QBs through the first two weeks. They also gave up a touchdown week one to E.J. Manuel. I like Smith to produce another 200-1/30-1 line this week. This should be super-juicy for those GPP formats where you can slough the QB position especially at that ridiculous $5200 FantasyScore price tag.

Prices indicated: Green = Drinkable and Red = Dumpable and introducing Blue = Top Shelf

Quarterbacks DraftKings FanDuel FantasyScore
Aaron Rodgers $9,200 $9,800 $8,900
Andrew Luck $9,200 $9,500 $8,800
Drew Brees $8,900 $9,100 $9,000
Peyton Manning $8,800 $9,900 $9,300
Matthew Stafford $8,800 $9,000 $8,800
Nick Foles $8,500 $8,400 $8,400
Jay Cutler $8,100 $8,100 $8,200
Cam Newton $7,400 $8,600 $8,100
Kirk Cousins $7,300 $6,800 $7,600
Philip Rivers $7,100 $8,200 $8,300
Carson Palmer $7,000 $6,900 $7,700
Tom Brady $6,900 $8,100 $8,200
Ben Roethlisberger $6,800 $7,700 $7,500
Russell Wilson $6,800 $8,300 $7,400
Andy Dalton $6,600 $7,900 $7,500
Colin Kaepernick $6,600 $8,500 $7,500
Tony Romo $6,500 $7,600 $7,500
Derek Carr $6,500 $6,000 $4,500
Joe Flacco $6,400 $7,200 $5,200
Alex Smith $6,300 $7,000 $4,900
Eli Manning $6,300 $6,900 $5,800
Ryan Tannehill $6,300 $6,500 $7,300
Geno Smith $6,100 $7,400 $5,200
Chad Henne $5,800 $6,200 $4,800
EJ Manuel $5,800 $6,700 $4,700
Jake Locker $5,500 $7,100 $6,800
Matt Cassel $5,400 $6,200 $5,400
Ryan Fitzpatrick $5,400 $6,400 $6,700
Austin Davis $5,400 $6,400 $4,200
Shaun Hill $5,000 $5,000 $4,700
Drew Stanton $5,000 $5,900 $4,200

Running Back

Your Fantasy Four Pack

Weekly Strategy – The top-tier prices are well below the top-tier prices at the other positions. I’ll gladly nab a couple studs here this week and then flex a deal like Robinson (see below).

DeMarco Murray, Cowboys @ STL

451-2! That sounds like a good four game total yardage line for a running back against an opposing team. Unfortunately for the Rams, this is DeMarco Murray’s TWO GAME career line against them. Those two games accounted for 13% of Murray’s total yardage over his first three seasons. His price tag this week is low compared to what the top QBs are going for. It is especially comical at DraftKings where if you aren’t playing him, you may as well send your payment directly to me.

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks vs. DEN

Denver obviously improved their defense over the offseason. They still have to put the proof in the pudding by stopping Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks in Seattle. He only got 39 yards in their Super Bowl matchup, but he scored. The thought going into this season was that he was on the twilight of his career. Two games and 187-3 into this season and sportswriters are backtracking faster than the Vikings dealing with Adrian Peterson. The biggest threat here is that Lynch has been battling some back issues. If he is good to go, he should be a top four producer at home. 

LeSean McCoy, Eagles vs. WAS

Part of many Eagles stack this week, LeSean McCoy is the expensive half of one of the best 1-2 running back punches in the NFL. Of course if you want nearly the same number of points for nearly $2500 less I’d roll with Darren Sproles instead. Together they are a lock for 250 total yards and 15 receptions. I actually stated preseason that I was scared how much Sproles would eat into McCoy’s numbers and so far I’d say I was right. That said he has still topped 100 total yards in both games and he scored last week despite Sproles’ presence. Also remember he finished with more than 100 total yards in every game except four last year.

Matt Forte, Bears @ NYJ

Matt Forte was my favorite of the “top-5 running backs” going into this season. Those other four backs: Peterson – out indefinitely, Charles – out indefinitely, McCoy – splitting time with Sproles, Lacy – concussion Week 1 and just 61 yards last week. Those 61 yards came against these Jets, who also held the laughable Raiders’ backfield in check Week 1. Not exactly a glowing endorsement for Forte, I know. To make this even more risky, Forte got stuffed by San Fran last week. I’m chocking that up to the Niners home defense and not Forte’s diminished skills. After all Forte was under 100 total yards only four times all of last year. Much like Lynch and Murray since his price is decidedly lower than the top tier QBs; I’d rather put my stock in the superstar running backs and slough the QB slot.

Sleepers

Terrance West, Browns vs. BAL

If you do decide to slough the RB position this week there are several discount options worth playing. Terrance West has been awesome filling in for Ben Tate. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tate is out for good as the Browns’ lead back. This week West gets the Ravens, who have allowed opponents’ RB1s to post 110 and 107 total yards over the first two weeks.

Khiry Robinson, Saints vs. MIN

Khiry Robinson gets a three pack of BLUE this week as his price tag is ridiculously too low, considering that he will be the primary ball carrier with Mark Ingram out for the foreseeable future. Minnesota fell behind early last week and Stevan Ridley slammed the ball down their gullets the rest of the game. Rinse and Repeat. It will be Khiry Robinson that will be used to run out the clock against the Vikings, not pass catching back, Pierre Thomas. Thomas will likely score too, but his score will come early on through the air. Once New Orleans has a sufficient lead (read Mid-1st QTR) it will be the Robinson show in New Orleans the rest of the way.

Prices indicated: Green = Drinkable and Red = Dumpable and introducing Blue = Top Shelf

Running Backs DraftKings FanDuel FantasyScore
Marshawn Lynch $7,900 $8,900 $8,300
DeMarco Murray $7,900 $8,700 $8,600
LeSean McCoy $7,800 $9,200 $8,700
Matt Forte $7,600 $8,400 $8,500
Arian Foster $7,500 $8,800 $8,300
Le’Veon Bell $7,300 $8,800 $7,800
Giovanni Bernard $7,300 $8,500 $7,900
C.J. Spiller $6,200 $7,900 $7,000
Knile Davis $6,200 $7,000 $5,700
Alfred Morris $6,100 $7,600 $7,700
Montee Ball $5,900 $7,800 $7,600
Eddie Lacy $5,900 $8,200 $8,300
Zac Stacy $5,600 $7,500 $6,600
Terrance West $5,600 $5,800 $5,800
Justin Forsett $5,400 $5,200 $4,700
Andre Ellington $5,400 $6,700 $6,300
Joique Bell $5,400 $6,800 $6,100
Darren Sproles $5,200 $6,000 $6,500
Rashad Jennings $5,200 $6,400 $6,000
Shane Vereen $5,100 $6,300 $7,300
Reggie Bush $5,000 $7,300 $6,900
Chris Ivory $5,000 $5,800 $4,900
Trent Richardson $5,000 $6,200 $5,200
Lamar Miller $5,000 $6,600 $5,600
Pierre Thomas $4,900 $6,300 $5,700
Frank Gore $4,800 $7,700 $7,000
Ahmad Bradshaw $4,800 $5,200 $5,300
Bernard Pierce $4,800 $5,300 $6,500
Stevan Ridley $4,700 $6,200 $5,000
Matt Asiata $4,600 $6,200 $3,700
Chris Johnson $4,500 $6,800 $6,200
Danny Woodhead $4,500 $5,900 $4,900
Darren McFadden $4,200 $5,600 $4,800
Jonathan Stewart $4,000 $5,100 $5,100
Toby Gerhart $4,000 $5,500 $5,700
Jeremy Hill $4,000 $4,900 $5,500
Fred Jackson $3,900 $5,600 $6,100
Khiry Robinson $3,900 $4,700 $4,500
DeAngelo Williams $3,500 $5,700 $4,700
Donald Brown $3,500 $6,200 $4,600
Shonn Greene $3,300 $4,900 $5,000
Darrel Young $3,100 $4,500 $3,700
Roy Helu Jr. $3,100 $5,000 $4,100
Benny Cunningham $3,100 $4,500 $3,700
C.J. Anderson $3,100 $5,200 $3,700
Bishop Sankey $3,100 $5,900 $3,900
Jonathan Dwyer $3,000 $5,400 $4,400
LeGarrette Blount $3,000 $4,600 $4,200
Carlos Hyde $3,000 $6,000 $4,500
Isaiah Crowell $3,000 $5,100 $4,000

Wide Receiver

Weekly Strategy – Way too many incredible bargains in the mid-tier this week. I’m nabbing one superstar and backfilling here.

Your Fantasy Four Pack

Calvin Johnson, Lions vs. GB

Dating back to 2010, Calvin Johnson has faced the Packers seven times. During those seven games he has averaged 6-112-1 on an average of 11 targets. Looking at a smaller subset of that we see that in his last four tilts against them he is averaging 8-151-0.75. Any way you slice it up, Megatron will have no trouble decimating Green Bay this week.

Dez Bryant, Cowboys @ STL

I’d really like to be playing a lot of big buck WRs this week since they all have cake matchups, but there are just way too many sick deals well below the top tier to pass up. Even with all those deals you’d be amiss if you didn’t take one of the big five WRs this week. Dez Bryant torched a very good Tennessee secondary last week for 10-103-1 on 14 targets from Tony Romo. I’m chocking his Week 1 meager line up to his injury issues. He finished last season by scoring in five straight and now has one out of two in the bag for this season. It is clear that Romo intends to get him his touchdowns by any means necessary. Basically put, he is money at any price.

Jordy Nelson, Packers @ DET

Jordy Nelson has been targeted 30 times already through the first two weeks. Green Bay OC, Tom Clements, brushed that off by saying that, “I don’t think we are relying too much on him.” Who are we to argue with that? I’ll take an average of 9-146 every time out, no questions asked. This game should be a shootout and I firmly expect that Aaron Rodgers will find Nelson as frequently as possible.

Jeremy Maclin, Eagles vs. WAS

Jeremy Maclin is at least $2500 less than Calvin Johnson in every format this week earning him another three BLUE rating. Washington has already allowed three 75+ yard WRs and Andre Johnson is the only one of those three that is in Maclin’s class. Maclin missed all of 2013, but if you look back to the end of 2012 he now has touchdowns in five of his last six games.

Sleepers

James Jones, Raiders @ NE

James Jones has scored in both starts this season. Apparently the DFS sites haven’t gotten a hold of that info yet because he is priced like an aging receiver on a crappy team with a rookie quarterback. Oh wait, that pretty much describes him to a T. New England will win this game going away, which means that Oakland will need to throw from the get go. Garbage time TDs count the same as regular time TDs in DFS. Jones is money for at least one this week, and at that price he will be very popular!

Brian Quick, Rams vs. DAL                                

Brian Quick gets the pleasure of facing the team that allowed the fourth most receiving yards to opposing WRs last year. In addition, only Minnesota gave up more passing touchdowns last season (including 16 to opposing WRs). Austin Davis has been mediocre so far, but he is obviously eyeing Brian Quick as his de facto #1 wide out. For a second week in a row Quick led the Rams in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Against the Cowboys this should add up to a line around 9-100-1.

Prices indicated: Green = Drinkable and Red = Dumpable and introducing Blue = Top Shelf

Wide Receivers  DraftKings FanDuel FantasyScore
Calvin Johnson $8,900 $9,000 $8,800
Jordy Nelson $8,400 $8,600 $7,800
Brandon Marshall $8,300 $8,200 $8,100
Dez Bryant $7,700 $8,600 $7,900
Randall Cobb $7,500 $8,100 $7,000
Antonio Brown $7,100 $8,200 $7,700
Demaryius Thomas $6,600 $8,700 $8,400
Andre Johnson $6,500 $7,100 $6,800
Jeremy Maclin $6,400 $6,300 $6,200
Alshon Jeffery $6,400 $7,600 $7,200
Cordarrelle Patterson $6,100 $6,900 $6,800
Julian Edelman $6,000 $6,900 $6,000
Keenan Allen $6,000 $6,900 $7,100
T.Y. Hilton $5,900 $6,500 $6,300
Reggie Wayne $5,800 $6,800 $6,200
Mike Wallace $5,800 $6,500 $5,900
Pierre Garcon $5,800 $6,500 $6,700
James Jones $5,700 $5,500 $4,800
Wes Welker $5,600 $6,900 N/A
Eric Decker $5,500 $6,400 $6,100
Michael Crabtree $5,500 $6,500 $6,200
Marques Colston $5,400 $5,600 $6,500
Emmanuel Sanders $5,400 $7,800 $6,500
Percy Harvin $5,400 $7,700 $7,200
DeAndre Hopkins $5,400 $6,200 $5,900
Brian Quick $5,300 $5,200 $5,500
Mohamed Sanu $5,300 $6,100 $4,900
Sammy Watkins $5,300 $6,600 $6,000
Victor Cruz $5,200 $6,600 $6,400
Brandin Cooks $5,100 $6,300 $5,700
Andrew Hawkins $5,000 $5,300 $4,900
DeSean Jackson $5,000 $6,100 $6,000
Golden Tate $5,000 $5,000 $5,200
Kendall Wright $4,900 $5,900 $5,300
Anquan Boldin $4,800 $6,400 $5,700
Larry Fitzgerald $4,800 $6,800 $6,700
Michael Floyd $4,800 $6,300 $6,500
Kelvin Benjamin $4,800 $6,500 $5,100
Hakeem Nicks $4,600 $5,800 $5,200
Markus Wheaton $4,600 $5,100 $5,500
Steve Smith Sr. $4,500 $6,200 $4,400
Miles Austin $4,500 $4,900 $3,800
Torrey Smith $4,500 $5,200 $5,800
Riley Cooper $4,400 $5,400 $5,000
Terrance Williams $4,400 $6,000 $5,100
Dwayne Bowe $4,300 $6,400 $5,500
Greg Jennings $4,200 $5,500 $4,900
Rueben Randle $4,200 $5,600 $5,200
Davante Adams $4,200 $4,600 $3,700
Andre Roberts $4,000 $4,900 $3,700
Rod Streater $3,800 $5,000 $4,300
Brian Hartline $3,700 $4,500 $5,300
Allen Hurns $3,700 $5,600 $4,900
Jordan Matthews $3,700 $4,800 $3,900
Allen Robinson $3,700 $5,000 $3,700
Justin Hunter $3,600 $5,400 $5,000
Stevie Johnson $3,500 $4,900 $3,700
Kenny Stills $3,500 $4,700 $3,700

Tight End

Your Fantasy Four Pack

Weekly Strategy – Several mid-tier bargains but Graham is worth the price if you want to go there. I may go Graham and flex Ertz who will blow up this week.

Jimmy Graham, Saints vs. MIN

He’s the best tight end in football and only Arizona allowed more TE touchdowns than Minnesota did last year. Plus New Orleans is 0-2 which means this will need to be a statement game. I hope that Sean Payton doesn’t issue any bounties here.

Julius Thomas, Broncos @ SEA

He has four touchdowns through the first two weeks. He also got ignored by Peyton Manning last week after running the wrong route. With the returning Wes Welker providing another mouth to feed at the stripe, I’m not as high on Julius Thomas this week. That said it appears that San Diego found an obvious leak in the Seattle secondary as Old Man Gates made them look silly last week. Julius only got four catches on six targets in their Super Bowl matchup, contrast that with the 28 total targets that Demaryius Thomas and Welker got. He’s probably going to score and probably not have a ton of yards. That $6600 DraftKings price tag is definitely sexy, but I just don’t think I can take the chance with so many good deals right below him.

Greg Olsen, Panthers vs. PIT

6.5-74-1 is the average allowed by Pittsburgh against opposing tight ends to start the season. That is definitely TE1 territory. Greg Olsen scored in Week 1 and he is averaging 7-78 over the first two. You’ll notice that number is very close to what Pittsburgh is allowing. I’m not saying, I’m just saying.

Rob Gronkowski, Patriots vs. OAK

Oakland has some major holes in their secondary, making Rob Gronkowski a tempting option. I think he is a sure thing touchdown scorer this week and I love his chances of racking up yards if he gets the necessary snaps. I just don’t like his price tag outside of DraftKings, who apparently forgot that he is Rob Gronkowski facing a middle school defense.

Sleepers

Zach Ertz, Eagles vs. WAS

It took all of my power to not list him in my fantasy four pack this week. With all of Philly’s weapons, he definitely is not as safe a play as the top four selections. That said, I believe only Graham has higher upside this week. His price is a joke right now, by this time next week the DFS sites may finally get wise to him. He only has seven catches this year but he has 163 yards and a touchdown. Oh yeah, the team from Washington allowed the fourth most touchdowns to opposing TEs last year.

Delanie Walker, Titans @ CIN  

Delanie Walker currently ranks fourth in receptions, third in yards, and third in touchdowns amongst tight ends. This week he faces a team that has allowed the second most receptions to TEs this year. He is as much as $3500 cheaper than Jimmy Graham, yet he has a chance to haul in several receptions. I’m not gonna predict another score, but I could easily see a 7-75 line this week.

Prices indicated: Green = Drinkable and Red = Dumpable and introducing Blue = Top Shelf

Tight Ends  DraftKings FanDuel FantasyScore
Jimmy Graham $8,000 $8,400 $8,700
Julius Thomas $6,600 $8,000 $8,400
Antonio Gates $6,100 $6,000 $6,600
Rob Gronkowski $5,900 $7,700 $7,600
Niles Paul $5,800 $5,000 $4,000
Delanie Walker $5,700 $5,900 $5,800
Greg Olsen $5,600 $6,100 $6,800
Martellus Bennett $5,200 $6,000 $6,800
Zach Ertz $5,200 $5,800 $6,500
Vernon Davis $5,000 $7,100 $7,400
Dwayne Allen $4,600 $5,200 $5,100
Dennis Pitta $4,400 $5,800 $7,000
Jordan Cameron $4,200 $6,200 $6,900
Kyle Rudolph $4,200 $5,400 $6,600
Larry Donnell $4,000 $4,900 $3,900
Jordan Reed $4,000 $5,100 $6,100
Jason Witten $3,900 $6,000 $6,800
Coby Fleener $3,800 $5,400 $4,400
Travis Kelce $3,700 $4,900 $5,400
Heath Miller $3,600 $4,900 $5,500
Owen Daniels $3,600 $5,100 $4,000
Charles Clay $3,500 $5,100 $5,900
Ladarius Green $3,500 $4,500 $4,400
Anthony Fasano $3,400 $5,000 $4,000
Jared Cook $3,400 $5,200 $4,500
Mychal Rivera $3,200 $4,500 $3,700
John Carlson $3,100 $4,800 $3,800
Jacob Tamme $3,000 $4,500 $3,700
Jermaine Gresham $3,000 $4,500 $4,700
Vance McDonald $3,000 $4,500 $3,700


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