Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: NE 20, KC 17 (Line: NE by 4)

Update: Jamaal Charles was able to practice on a limited basis on Thursday and Friday. His final determination as to status will be made after practice on Saturday but he won’t be completely safe to use until he is active for the Monday night game. All indications are that he will play and I will leave him as the starter. If that includes work for Niles Davis as well can’t be known for sure and would depend on how his ankle held up anyway.

The 2-1 Patriots look to win their third game during the easier part of their schedule. The 1-2 Chiefs come off their shocking beatdown of the Dolphins. The Pats are favored but the Chiefs are playing inconsistently and there’s nothing that impressive about the Pats anyway. This is the Monday night game.

Beating the Raiders 16-9 at home is just another sign that these Patriots are not getting better as the years progress. The defense has played well against weak teams but the offense has taken a noticeable step down. That may not be as apparent this week, but there are much tougher spots on the schedule coming up.

QUARTERBACK : Tom Terrific has turned into Tom Meh. Once one of the elite quarterbacks in the league, now Tom Brady is the very definition of average. He throws around 210 yards and one score in each game. He doesn’t turn the ball over often for a plus, but his season high game is only 249 yards and one touchdown.

RUNNING BACK : This group is much less productive than 2013. And it is the same players. Stevan Ridley turned in one decent game in Minnesota but at home versus the Raiders, he only gained 54 yards on 19 carries. Shane Vereen lags that badly, running around seven times per game and adding only three or four catches. This backfield has always been tough to call with the primary back changing constantly. The difference now is that it doesn’t matter much who is the primary.

WIDE RECEIVER : This is truly the problem area. Aside from Julian Edelman, there is no value in the other wideouts. Danny Amendola has no catches in the last two games. Kenbrell Thompkins is second best because he totals six catches for 53 yards over the first three weeks. This has turned into a wasteland with no one stepping up. Edelman is reliable for around 80 yards per week but not much more.

TIGHT END : Rob Gronkowski’s snap count is increasing and he is on the field most of the time the offense has the ball. While he scored twice this year, he still has yet to top four catches or 45 yards in any game. He and Edelman account for all touchdown passes but both are lagging their previous value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This depends on which Chiefs we get. All opponents throw for at least one or two scores on the Chiefs who have yet to allow a rushing score. Half of the touchdowns allowed went to tight ends so Gronkowski should benefit. By this point, Gronk and Edelman are the only no-brainer starts of the Patriots. The rest are moderate at most every week and offer no real advantage.

Nice win over the Dolphins and it happened without Jamaal Charles. No time to celebrate, the schedule continues to be brutal and this may be one of the few chances to string together two straight wins. There were signs of life in the passing game finally but this week will show if that was just a one week aberration.

QUARTERBACK : Alex Smith ended with three passing scores in Miami but only 186 yards. He scored only using a tight end and running back. He was also sacked five times despite only attempting 30 passes. Smith only managed one score over his first two games and his yardage has never been much.

RUNNING BACK : Jamaal Charles practiced last week but was held out because of his ankle. in his place, Knile Davis had his second big game. He ran for 132 yards on 32 carries and scored once. That give him a two week total of 54 runs for 211 yards and three touchdowns. Davis will lose all value if Charles plays.

Joe McKnight filled in as a receiving back and his six catches for 64 yards and two scores were a surprise. Especially given that he had never actually scored a touchdown during his four-year career and had never touched the ball as a Chief before Sunday.

WIDE RECEIVER : No surprise here. Three weeks in and still no touchdowns to a wide receiver and Dwayne Bowe chugs along with just under 30 yards per game. These are the most underperforming wideouts in the entire NFL currently. There is no reason to expect that to change.

TIGHT END : Travis Kelce is a bright spot at least relative to the rest of the receivers. He scored in Miami for the first time and averages over 50 yards per game. In Kansas City, that is lofty production.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Patriots are ranked #1 against the quarterbacks and wideouts and that bodes really poorly for the Chiefs. But the Fins rolled up 192 rush yards on them and they faced no other decent rushing attacks. As always, Jamaal Charles is a must start and should have success here. But the rest of the Chiefs are too unproductive to merit any consideration aside from rolling the dice with Kelce.

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