Game Predictions & Player Projections - BUF vs DET

Game Predictions & Player Projections - BUF vs DET


Game Predictions & Player Projections - BUF vs DET


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Prediction: BUF 13, DET 23 (Line: DET by 7)

UPDATED: Both Joique Bell and Theo Riddick are out this week as expected. Calvin Johnson missed all practices other than a limited workout on Friday and is listed as questionable. The expectation is that he will play this week but as we saw in the Jets game, he could just be a decoy again. That makes it even more tough to decide to start him since being active is not necessarily that meaningful with him. I am leaving his stats as they are but be aware he may be inactive, or he may play with minimal impact like last week.

The 2-2 Bills are tied for the lead in the quasi-competitive AFC East and are 1-1 in road games. The 3-1 Lions own the top spot in the NFC North and are 2-0 at home. New for this week – the Bills change quarterbacks.

Buffalo Bills

1 @CHI 23-20 10 KC —–
2 MIA 29-10 11 @MIA —–
3 SD 10-22 12 NYJ —–
4 @HOU 17-23 13 CLE —–
5 @DET —– 14 @DEN —–
6 NE —– 15 GB —–
7 MIN —– 16 @OAK —–
8 @NYJ —– 17 @NE —–
9 BYE —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 5-30
WR Sammy Watkins 5-70,1
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 1 XP

The Bills have been mostly living on their defense since the passing game has been bad enough to spawn a depth chart shake-up and the rushing effort has been almost good but never great. The change in quarterbacks comes at a good time with two home games to follow and then the bye. The pieces all seem to be here. And all we know is that E.J. Manuel was not the one to put it together.

QUARTERBACK : And with that we have likely seen the last of E.J. Manuel as a starting quarterback. He never made the progress they wanted and was never really an asset. Kyle Orton takes over as expected and he’s only 32 – plenty of other quarterbacks are older. And he gets Sammy Watkins as the premier rookie wide receiver. The Bills do not want to get into any shootouts but at least if they do – now they have a better chance. This remains a run-first offense.

RUNNING BACK : If you could just use one runner, the numbers would be very nice. But split down the middle – you have two guys who both end up with around 70 total yards and almost never score. Both players lone touchdowns were via a pass and this run-first offense has yet to run into the endzone. In a reception point league, Fred Jackson has more catches. But C.J. Spiller gets more runs and more rushing yardage. Any help that Orton can give the passing game will open up the running lanes as well.

WIDE RECEIVER : Sammy Watkins has been under-utilized with three games of three catches or less. Just once he had eight catches for 117 yards in the Miami game. Mike Williams scored on an 80-yard catch last week but only had one other catch for four yards and had done nearly nothing in the other three games. Robert Woods hasn’t risen above 20 yards since the season opener. This group needs help.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value. Lot of blocking.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Lions defense has really stepped up this year. They have never allowed more than one passing score and just moderate passing yardage. No one has rushed for more than 84 yards on them and it all gets split up here. Orton throws a new element into the mix but this is a road game which won’t help. Spiller and Jackson face a great defense and won’t be any better than their average game – and likely worse. This game is more to watch and see what difference Orton makes. The playing here has been mediocre and this is the toughest matchup so far this year.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 25 10 30 29 9 3
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 1 7 2 20 4 15

Detroit Lions

1 NYG 35-14 10 MIA —–
2 @CAR 7-24 11 @ARI —–
3 GB 19-7 12 @NE —–
4 @NYJ 24-17 13 CHI —–
5 BUF —– 14 TB —–
6 @MIN —– 15 MIN —–
7 NO —– 16 @CHI —–
8 @ATL —– 17 @GB —–
9 BYE —–  
News | Stats | Roster
DET vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 270,2
RB Stevan Ridley 50,1
WR Marvin Jones 3-40
WR Jeremy Kerley 3-20
WR Golden Tate 6-70,1
TE Eric Ebron 3-30,1

The Lions are on a nice roll with two games and facing games that are definitely “winnable” up to their week nine bye. The defense has been solid and helped compensate for an offense that still is not running like it did in 2013. Injuries take a toll this week but it is a home game and they can get away with a win and not use the banged up players. What we are waiting for mostly is anything that can resemble the 35-14 win that opened the season and not all these lower scoring defensive matchups.

QUARTERBACK : Matt Stafford has not been bad at all. But he’s never been more than just good and only totals four passing scores on the year. Fortunately he tacked on two more touchdowns via a run. He’s averaging 294 passing yards but just over a single touchdown pass per game.

RUNNING BACK : Joique Bell suffered a concussion last week and is questionable to play here. The team is also missing Theo Riddick who is nursing a hamstring strain. That leaves Reggie Bush alone though the Lions called up George Winn from the practice squad. Bush has been a disappointment so far with just one touchdown and only one game that generated more than 65 total yards. Bell only scored once himself but was even less productive. A full load this week could help Bush finally generate notable fantasy points.

WIDE RECEIVER : Calvin Johnson opened the season with a monster game over the Giants but has not scored since. After two weeks of around 80 yards each, Johnson dressed and was active last week but was little more than a decoy because of his sore ankle. Johnson only caught two passes for 12 yards. Johnson says his ankle is progressing and that he will play this week. No word yet if he is going to play or “play”.

Golden Tate has been consistently productive though he still has not scored as a Lion. But he’s averaged 80 yards per game and already contributed more than the many other #2 guys that the Lions tried out across from Megatron.

Jeremy Ross scored in the Jets game but has done little else all year.

TIGHT END : Eric Ebron finally has his first NFL touchdown and oddly has three catches for around 35 yards in both road games and then no catches in the home stands. That should change this week. The Lions are looking forward to a 6-4, 265 pound “speedster” once he gets through his learning curve.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bills are great against the run with never allowing any rushing touchdown and holding more runners well under 50 yards. The Lions are just about out of runners so look for Bush to rely more on receptions for his contribution. The Bills allowed at least 240 pass yards in every game and a couple of scores for most. Bush gets a start this week with the rest out. Stafford, Tate and Johnson are also good starts though Johnson’s health could again be an issue.

Gaining Fantasy Points DET 6 16 7 25 29 9
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 18 8 22 16 20 11

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