Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: CIN 24, NE 20 (Line: NE by 2.5)

The 3-0 Bengals come off their bye having held all opponents to fewer than 17 points. The 2-2 Patriots were just smoked in Kansas City and maybe never looked worse. Certainly a big comeback win at home is in order for the Patriots and they’ve never failed to respond to a bad game. But this just looks like a tired and untalented Patriots team and the Bengals are playing well in every facet.

The Bengals won 13-6 when the Patriots visited last year.

The offense was planned to run more this year and that has happened with big success. But that did not mean A.J. Green would be forgotten. And the defense remains as good as any in the NFL right now. The schedule is no cake walk but the Bengals are currently one of the elite teams and not just thanks to an easy opening stretch of games. This is a balanced team built for the playoffs.

QUARTERBACK : Andy Dalton’s stats have taken a hit with all the rushing. He’s only passed for two scores over three games but threw for 301 yards in the only other road game. Dalton will also be getting back Marvin Jones soon which will increase his weapons significantly.

Dalton only passed for 212 yards and no scores last year versus the Pats.

RUNNING BACK : It is a two man show and they have scored five times in three weeks. Giovani Bernard scored three times while topping 100 total yards twice. Jeremy Hill is lighter on yardage but scored in each of the last two games. Bernard is added up to six receptions to his totals as well while Hill just rushes.

Bernard rushed for 62 yards on the Patriots last time while BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 67 yards and scored once.

WIDE RECEIVER : A.J. Green played in just two games but topped 100 yards in both and scored in the road trip to Baltimore. Marvin Jones should make his debut in this game after missing the entire training camp and first three games with a foot injury. Mohamed Sanu filled in but will return to the slot with Jones back.

Green ended with five receptions for 61 yards against the Pats last year.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value this year with Tyler Eifert out.

Bengals tight ends accounted for nine catches and 77 yards versus the Patriots in 2013.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Pats always player tougher at home. But they have already allowed six touchdowns to running backs and three runners topped 90 yards against them. They are allowing about five yards per rush and that includes playing the Raiders. Look for heavy doses of Bernard and Hill. Darrell Revis would naturally match on Marvin Jones but no word if they plan on moving him over to cover Green. Normally – they don’t. Bernard is a great start here. Hill and Green are moderate starts with upside. Dalton’s been too unproductive to merit much attention for now.

This will be only the second home game this year but the Pats already lost their home opener to the Dolphins. The Monday night debacle was as bad as it gets for the Patriots since nothing worked. And they could stop no facet of the Chiefs offense. Worse yet, we then have to suffer through a press conference where Bill Belichick is as forthcoming as a five-year-old who just discovered where the Christmas presents were hidden. “What? What game? There was a game?”

QUARTERBACK : It started last year. Now the decline of Tom Brady is inescapable and on display every week so far. He has yet to throw for more than one score or 249 yards in a game this year. He is overthrowing deep balls and missing crossing routes. He’s already been sacked nine times. This just does not look like Tom Terrific anymore. He once famously said “I’ll play until I suck”. Well… Tom… You need to rise from the ashes this week before the questions get any harder to answer.

Brady passed for only 197 yards and no scores in Cincinnati last year.

RUNNING BACK : Aside from the one game in Minnesota when Stevan Ridley ran for 101 yards and one score on 25 carries, there is a whole lot of nothing going on here. Ridley is averaging only about 50 yards per game including that big effort in Minnesota. Shane Vereen never runs for more than 40 yards but at least adds four or five catches. This unit is not getting the blocking of years past and it shows.

The Pats combined for 75 rushing yards on 17 carries against the Bengals last year.

WIDE RECEIVER : Same receivers from last year but mostly just a mess. Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson are healthy scratches. Danny Amendola has not caught a pass since the season opener. Julian Edelman has been the lone consistently productive player with 80+ yards per game and then he only managed four receptions for 23 yards in Kansas City. Brandon LaFell (6-119, TD) just had the best game by any Patriot receiver this year but his previous 14 targets only resulted in four catches for 46 yards. The lack of talent may be at its lowest point here in decades.

Edelman was held to only two receptions for 35 yards on the Bengals last season.

TIGHT END : How bad is it when Rob Gronkowski is only averaging three catches for 37 yards per game though he has three touchdowns including one last week during trash time from Jimmy Garoppolo. This too is not the Gronk we used to know.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bengals have only allowed two passing scores this year and Brady is stuck at one. The Bengals rushing defense is also very good and never allowed more than 70 yards to any runner. This could be a blowout win by the Patriots if it were a few years back. And they will be motivated here. But the Bengals defense is one of the best in the league and the Pats are just playing so poorly that it is hard to recommend any players besides marginal plays for Gronkowski and Edelman.

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