Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: HOU 17, DAL 27 (Line: DAL by 4)

UPDATE: Andre Johnson is listed as questionable because of his ankle and he only managed limited practice on Thursday. He is still expected to play by all reports and was just resting his ankle. But he is still worth checking the status report on Sunday. Arian Foster has been upgraded to probable and will play.

The 3-1 Texans bring their 1-1 road record to Dallas where the 3-1 Cowboys are only 1-1. Injuries to the Dallas defense may matter but not as much as if Arian Foster is not 100%. Dallas takes the nod here but mostly from the venue.

The Texans are atop the AFC South but the 2-2 Colts are nipping at their heels and this Texans team seems rather average to merit winning a division. The schedule will even it all out at the end and on the other side of this game is the home bout against the Colts. the schedule gets tougher soon but no denying the Texans have exceeded expectations. Starting out with the Redskins and Raiders made the team look better than it is.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Fitzpatrick has not faced a top defense yet but has only throw for five touchdowns in four games and averaged just 226 yards per game. That is almost the exact definition of average in the NFL. Fitzpatrick has also thrown five interceptions in just the last two weeks. A downturn seems to be happening.

RUNNING BACK : Arian Foster missed week three with a hamstring strain and Alfred Blue covered for him with 13 runs for 78 yards. But Foster returned to only gain six yards on eight carries while admitting he was not 100%. He did add seven catches for 55 yards. But he opened the year with two 100 yard efforts – against the Raiders and Skins. Foster is considered “day to day” and I will assume he plays with only minor limitation if that. Updates as warranted.

WIDE RECEIVER : Andre Johnson injured his ankle last week – “felt it pop” – but came back into the game and ended with 71 yards on six catches. That was an average day for him and he still has yet to score a touchdown. DeAndre Hopkins scored in all but one game so far and that was when he gained 116 yards on six carries versus the Giants. While their yardages are similar, Hopkins is clearly the scoring leader with three touchdowns to none for Johnson. No other wideouts figure in here.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Cowboys defense has been better than expected overall but suffered more injuries last week. No team has allowed as many fantasy points to tight ends which totals six touchdowns already. The Texans use Garrett Graham of a few receptions a week but he’s had to rely on for any one game even this one. The Cowboys are holding the rusher at bay and none have ran for more than 87 yards. Only one ran in a score this year. Foster can get total yardage to matter if he still catches passes but a score is less likely. Johnson and Hopkins both make only moderate starters here. Foster could have a good game if healthy.

The Cowboys will be without LB Bruce Carter this week and just lost CB Morris Clairborne for the year which leaves them thin at defensive back. But winning three in a row made the season opening loss to the 49ers hurt less. Paying back the Saints for their beatdown of the Cowboys last year also makes a difference. Playing in Seattle next week won’t be pretty and the Cowboys need a win here to stay up in the NFC East.

QUARTERBACK : All is well with Tony Romo at least for now. After throwing for 217 yards and two scores in St. Louis, he passed for 262 yards and three touchdowns on the visiting Saints. More important – he’s only lost the ball once in the last three games. The quality of the opponent always matters but at least the Cowboys are back on track and Romo is a asset.

RUNNING BACK : DeMarco Murray scored in each game this year while running for over 100 yards in each. He is handling almost the entire workload and already has 99 times for 534 yards and five touchdowns plus added nine catches for 68 yards. For the year, that extrapolates out to 396 carries for 2136 yards and 20 touchdowns plus 36 receptions for 272 yards.  Only six runners in history have rushed that many times. No one has ever rushed for that many yards. Murray has only averaged 154 carries during his three previous NFL seasons and never more than 217.

WIDE RECEIVER : Both starting wideouts have been great for the last two weeks. Dez Bryant continues to score every week but has big yardage only in road games. Terrance Williams is all ready having a nice sophomore year but only because he’s scored four times already. Williams rarely tops 50 yards in a game. Only the two starters have fantasy value generated. Of the eight touchdowns passed this year, seven went to a rookie ba99 times for 534 yards and five touchdowns plus added nine catches for 68 yards. For the year, that extrapolates out to 396 carries for 2136 yards and 20 touchdowns plus 36 receptions for 272 yards.  Only six runners in history have rushed that many times. No one has ever rushed for that many yards. Murray has only averaged 154 carries during his three previous NFL seasons and never more than 217.

TIGHT END : It is not like anyone is stealing his receptions. But Jason Witten is looking like 12 NFL seasons have caught up with him and he’s lost that spark. Through the first four games, Witten is averaging just 39 yards per game and he has yet to score. He still figures in but almost exclusively as a third down target.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Texans rankings are from their opponents and that is not a fair assessment. They faced RG3, Derek Carr, Eli Manning and Eli Manuel. Romo is a step up from that group. And the Texas allowed two passing scores in each game against a decent defense and They already gave up three rushing touchdowns including a monster 176 yard effort by Rashad Jennings when he played the Texans. Home game – no reason to not start Romo, Murray, Brandt and even Terrance Williams

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