Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

table td.bg-light-yellow {
background: #ffffcc; }

Prediction: KC 20, SF 24 (Line: SF by 6)

UPDATE: Vernon Davis was held out of practice all week and is listed as questionable. He is a game time decision at best because of his back and I am removing him from the projections. He is in a late afternoon game so his status won’t be known until later on Sunday. Donnie Avery remains out with a groin injury.

The 1-2 Chiefs are 1-1 in road games and head to San Francisco to play the 2-2 49ers who finally experienced a win in their own new stadium. The Chiefs are getting better to be sure but the 49ers at home are also starting to figure it out. The interesting tact on this will be the return of Alex Smith to the 49ers albeit in a new stadium.

The Chiefs have looked much better in these last two weeks taking down AFC East teams. How much of what happened were problems with the Patriots and Dolphins is hard to guage, but there’s no denying that the Chiefs are heading in the right direction again. There’s only a bye waiting on the other side of this game so the focus should be here.

QUARTERBACK : Alex Smith has never been much more than a game manager and that certainly stuck last year when the Chiefs defense and rushing attack was so dominant. But he is being called on now to do more and has responded at least recently. Granted – in Denver he only threw for 255 yards and no scores. But both the wins in Miami and against the Patriots saw him throw three touchdowns and he did that spreading the ball around. The jury is still out about Smith being good enough to mount a big comeback in any game but at least he has been better than expected lately.

RUNNING BACK : Jamaal Charles missed the Miami game and was held to very minimal stats in the first two weeks. But against the Pats, he was classic Charles. 18 rushes for 92 yards and a score plus two more touchdowns on his three catches for 16 yards. His scoring is fine, he just does it all in one game instead of four of them. Squint your eyes and pretend the dreadlocks are there and Knile Davis runs a lot like Charles. Even with Charles back, Davis ran for 107 yards and he rumbled for 132 yards and a score in Miami. He turned in two touchdowns and 79 yards in Denver. Davis will see decreasing stats when the Chief play tougher opponents because Charles will stay in. But the offensive line is playing better and the Chiefs backfield is getting the job done.

WIDE RECEIVER : For all the passing success of late, that hasn’t really benefited the wideouts who collectively still have not caught a touchdown. Donnie Avery has been marginal since the season opener and now has an abductor strain. Dwayne Bowe had one of his best days in the last two years and still it was only five catches for 81 yards. His two previous games failed to top 40 yards each.

Smith needs to work on connecting with these wide receivers or they will be right back to 2013 when they could never catch up.

TIGHT END : The best development on the Chiefs is easily the progress of Travis Kelce who scored in the last two games and is averaging five catches per week for 65 yards. Kelce not only has the size and hands, he faster than most tight ends. On a team with such marginal receivers, Kelce stands out even more.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This is Smith’s first meeting with his old team but what that means is hard to say. Smith is hardly an elite quarterback regardless of his recent contract. The 49ers are at home again and coming off a game where they held the Eagles to no offensive touchdowns and just 195 passing yards. In San Francisco, Matt Forte (12-21) and LeSean McCoy (10-17) had no success rushing the ball and that should mean less for Charles and maybe almost nothing for Davis unless Charles ankle hurts again. Charles is a must start and Smith seems interesting since revenge games are fun. But Charles and Kelce are the only obvious starts in this one.

The 49ers finally won in their own stadium but had to fight off a late game comeback by the Eagles. Before that was a painful loss in Arizona. This week is as easy is it will get for the next moth. Road games to St. Louis and Denver loom before the bye. A win here keeps the 49ers in the race. A loss counts even bigger.

QUARTERBACK : While Colin Kaepernick doesn’t score as a runner at all, he is gaining over 50 rushing yards in each of the last three games. His passing remains average with each game ending between 201 and 248 yards with one or two touchdowns. Good to be sure, but never great. His rushing yards help his fantasy value.

RUNNING BACK : After Frank Gore was limited to six carries in the Arizona loss, he was rewarded with 24 runs to gain 119 yards last week and he added a 55-yard touchdown on his only reception. Gore is still sharing enough with Carlos Hyde to diminish his fantasy score and Hyde has the lead with two rushing touchdowns. This is an average rushing attack unless the game goes very well.

WIDE RECEIVER : Michael Crabtree was held to only 43 yards on five catches last week but he scored and gained 80 yards in each of the two previous games. Anquan Boldin never scores and is back to being just a possession receiver for four or five catches per week. Steve Johnson surprised with a beautiful 12-yard touchdown catch against the Eagles but it was his only reception of the game. Johnson turned in 103 yards on nine catches in Arizona the previous week. This remains mostly about Crabtree.

TIGHT END : Vernon Davis injured his back when he took a shot from Demarco Ryans and suffered spasms after the game. Early speculation is that he will be good enough to play this week and back spasms are nothing new to Davis anyway. I will update as needed but expect him to play.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chiefs have not faced a running quarterback yet so that favors Kaepernick. They always allow at least one passing touchdown but no one has passed for more than 266 yards on them. The Chiefs have not allowed any rushing scores though on the road they give up more yardage. If Davis plays, he goes against a defense that already allowed four passing touchdowns to tight ends. Kaepernick, Crabtree and Gore are decent starts and Davis should be very good if he is healthy.

table td.bg-light-yellow {
background: #ffffcc; }