Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: MIN 17, GB 30 (Line: GB by 9)

Update: Terry Bridgewater is inactive for the game and Christian Ponder is the starter. Jerick McKinnon is probable to play but HC Mike Zimmer said that Asiata remains the starter. Moving back to Ponder increases the risk of poor play for the entire offense.

The 2-2 Packers have won seven of the last nine meetings and playing in Green Bay on the very short week is even more of an advantage. This only their second home game of the year and they come off a pasting of the Bears in Chicago. The 2-2 Vikings are 1-1 in road games and just laid down a shocking demolition of the Falcons.

The Packers won 44-31 when they visited the Vikings last year but they tied 26-26 in Green Bay.

Huge win last week has to spawn confidence not only in the team but for Teddy Bridgewater in particular. The reality was that the matchup had something to do with it but the rookie could not have asked for a better start other than not spraining his ankle. This is one of the most important games of the year but on a short week and playing in Green Bay is much more uphill than last week.

QUARTERBACK : The first start for Teddy Bridgewater resulted in 317 pass yards, no turnovers, no sacks and five runs for 27 yards and a score. That’s well above expectations. Bridgewater sprained his ankle and was held out of early practices but the team remains optimistic that he will play on Thursday. He’s not worth a fantasy start quite yet but may be soon and has sparked a passing offense more than what Cassel could do. Bottom line – no one wants Christian Ponder to get the nod this week.

Christian Ponder passed for only 145 yards in Green Bay last year.

RUNNING BACK : Jerick McKinnon was finally given more than two carries in a game and he blew up with 135 yards on 18 carries against an exceptionally weak Falcons defense. But as great as that was in a blow-out win, HC Mike Zimmer still considers McKinnon as only a change-of-pace back and his role won’t normally expand unless the Vikings are in another big win where there are plenty of carries to share.

Matt Asiata is nothing special and only averages 3.4 yards per carry but he rushed 20 times for 78 yards and three touchdowns last week. He’ll hold off McKinnon for now because Asiata is a better blocker and more complete back than the rookie.

Adrian Peterson rushed for 60 yards and a score in Green Bay last season.

WIDE RECEIVER : Greg Jennings ended with three catches for 72 yards with Bridgewater starting but Cordarrelle Patterson actually got worse. He was held to a season low two catches for 38 yards and never ran the ball. Despite the promises of the preseason, Patterson has yet to show up this year other than one long run back in the season opener. As a receiver he’s lagging most tight ends.

Jarius Wright may play as the #3 wideout but he received double the passes of any other player. He ended with eight receptions for 132 yards and apparently rekindled the connection he has with Bridgewater when both were on the second team. Wright’s usage is also likely a result of the absence of Kyle Rudolph. Bridgewater’s preferences will be more apparent after this week.

TIGHT END : Kyle Rudolph remains out with his sports hernia for the next six weeks or more but in his place Rhett Ellison is only catching one pass per game same as he did with Rudolph around. No fantasy value here.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Hard to predict for a team that may or may not be using a rookie quarterback with a bad ankle. But assuming he can play, the Packers are allowing only two scores or fewer to opposing quarterbacks . The Packers biggest weakness is against the run so it depends on how long the Vikes can keep the game score close and mostly rush the ball. No receiver caught more than 82 yards on the Packers and only 63 yards if you consider home games. Asiata is a start here but McKinnon won’t be if Zimmer makes good on his word that the rookie remains a change-of-pace option. Jennings is a moderate play for yardage and Patterson has to be benched for now unless you can live with 50 yards or less.

The Packers made up for the loss in Detroit by bombing the Bears in Chicago and need this win to keep up in the NFC North. While the rushing game still is AWOL, at least Aaron Rodgers is tossing touchdowns and big yardage via passes though even he rarely runs anymore. This should be the easiest game of the year aside from Atlanta in week 14.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers was held to minimal yardage and just one score against the two good defenses that he’s faced but versus the Jets and Bears he threw for over 300 yards in each and scored a total of seven touchdowns. Without a run game to support him so far, Rodgers needs a softer matchup but then can post the big fantasy points.

Rodgers passed for 285 yards and two scores on the visiting Vikings last year.

RUNNING BACK : The world still awaits the same Eddie Lacy we saw in 2013. After four games, Lacy scored only once and still has yet to run for more than 48 yards in any game. He continues to get nearly all the work but is ineffective as a runner. He has been limited to no more than 17 runs per game but is averaging only 3.0 yards per carry.

Lacy gained 94 yards on 29 runs and scored once on the Vikes in Green Bay last season.

WIDE RECEIVER : All the recent passing elevated Jordy Nelson to top of the NFL wideout pile with 459 yards and three scores while Randall Cobb trails with 239 yards and five touchdowns. The problem with the offense is here – if Nelson and Cobb can do some damage, the Packers can win. But only Nelson and Cobb have managed to be more than mediocre. If the Packers are going to move on offense, it will go through those two wideouts or it just won’t happen.

Nelson ended with 123 yards and two scores on the Vikings last time. Jarrett Boykin replaced Cobb in that game and caught five passes for 89 yards.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value. Richard Rodgers caught two passes for 52 yards to open last week and then not one more target. He had no catches the previous week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Vikings rank well against the pass only because they’ve played the Rams and Patriots. Both Drew Brees and Matt Ryan threw for 290 yards and two or three touchdowns. And fortunately most of that work all went to the wideouts. The Vikings have been good against the run though they allowed four scores to running backs. Consider Rodgers, Nelson and Cobb as must starts. Lacy is still startable but nothing going into this game suggest more than the same marginal yardage and the chance for a score.

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