Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: GB 27, MIA 20 (Line: GB by 3)

The 3-2 Packers are on a two game winning streak and head to Miami where the 2-2 Dolphins come off their bye. The Fins have either won or lost by huge margins. There have been no close games with the Fins but wins over the Raiders and even Patriots are not as impressive anymore. Coin flip but the Packers have a far better offense.

The win over the Peterson-less Vikings was great but the loss in Detroit could be a problem and casts a shadow on this week as well. The Packers are 2-1 in the division but cannot afford any let up with this trip being followed by the Panthers defense visiting Green Bay. The Packers need to show here they can play on the road outside of their own division.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers is back on track at least for touchdowns. His two single-score games in Seattle and Detroit have been compensated by throwing four touchdowns in Chicago and then three more against the Vikings which could have been more but the Packers led 35-0 at one point. He doesn’t run. So far every other week has sub-200 yard games but at least he’s already scored 12 touchdowns.

RUNNING BACK : Eddie Lacy finally had a monster game when he ran for 105 yards and two scores on 13 carries and then caught three passes for 27 yards. He ran at will over the Vikings and it was at home so it doesn’t necessarily mean all is well again, but at least for one week he was back to form. Lacy opened up against the Seahawks, Jets and Lions. Nothing surprising about struggling against those defenses.

WIDE RECEIVER : Jordy Nelson is a machine so far. The worst he’s done is 59 yards in Detroit but he’s already totaled 525 yards on 34 catches for four touchdowns. Randall Cobb trails him with only 273 yards on 24 catches and six touchdowns. The only change here is that Davante Adams is getting more attention and already supplanted Jarrett Boykin.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Fins held almost all opponents to only one passing score each but they have yet to face any decent offenses. The passing yardage was low but that’s what Tom Brady, E.J. Manuel, Alex Smith and Derek Carr usually do. Plus Smith threw three touchdowns on them. The Fins have allowed five scores to running backs in just four games played and the only notable back they faced was Knile Davis who posted 32-132-1 for a stat line. Same crew needs to start this week – Rodgers, Lacy, Nelson and Cobb.This is exponentially better passing than the Fins have had to defend this season.

Beating up the Raiders felt great but hides the fact that the passing effort remains mediocre and rushing attack needs to show it can come up big on the road for once. The bye is over and the season starts out with a tough home stand here and then two road games. In the end all that matters is week 11 on when they play their remaining four divisional games.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Tannehill is still not bad. He’s almost good. And he is never great. So far he’s thrown a touchdown in every game but the yardage tends to remain very average and he’s only a caretaker quarterback when they drafted him to be a franchise face that can throw more than one or two scores in each game.

RUNNING BACK : Here is where the interesting part lies. Lamar Miller has been effective as a runner for the last two weeks thanks to playing weaker teams and he even scored twice in Oakland on his 12 runs for 64 yards. But Knowshon Moreno is slated to return this week and OC Bill Lazor said Tuesday he hasn’t considered how he’ll divide carries between Miller and Moreno. But Moreno was brought in by the new coaching regime and blew up on the Pats in the opener with 24 carries for 134 yards and a score for a team high this year and the only full game that he played.

It depends on Moreno’s health and if he has any rust. And what the whims of Lazor is but Miller has already spent two other years proving he was not the answer. I will assume Moreno plays, they use a ratio that prefers Moreno and update if warranted.

WIDE RECEIVER : Mike Wallace scored in three of four games but he’s only averaging 62 yards per game and never more than 81 yards. No other Miami wideout has any fantasy value, not even Brian Hartline who was good for yardage each week in 2013. He’s only scored once in 2014 and averages just 40 yards per week. The promise of a better passing effort this season just has never materialized.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value. Unlike last year when Charles Clay at least caught some touchdowns.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers are weakest against the run and the Fins will seek to exploit that all they can. Which back they is not certain but there should be around 100+ rush yards and likely one score to split up. The Packers are only average against the pass but that matches the Fins capabilities. Wallace is always worth a low end start from his touchdowns but otherwise only Moreno and Miller are appealing this week.

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