Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: IND 27, HOU 20 (Line: IND by 2.5)

This is the Thursday night game. The 3-2 Colts are on a three game winning streak and travel to Houston to face the 3-2 Texans. The winner here holds control of the AFC South plus a valuable head-to-head tie breaker for now. If the Colts can win in Houston, then the road is clear to take the AFC South again this year.

The Colts swept the Titans last year. They won 27-24 in Houston.

After two major blowouts over the Titans and Jaguars, the Ravens gave the Colts all they could handle. But even if the Colts offense took a step backwards, the defense rose up and held the Ravens to 13 points. The Colts have quickly coalesced into a very good team and about the only element missing from the glory years a decade ago is not a Peyton Manning but a rushing game to support the quarterback. The next four games are going to be tough but these Colts are usually better than their schedule.

QUARTERBACK : Andrew Luck continues to be the #1 fantasy quarterback and while he only passed for one score on the Ravens, he ran in a touchdown and still threw for 312 yards making it four of five games with more than 300 yards. He has not had a bad game yet and may never at this rate. Luck passed for 271 yards and three touchdowns in Houston last year.

RUNNING BACK : No changes here. Trent Richardson still chugs along with about half the production you want for a starting running back and he gets worse in a quick way when the opponent has a good defense or they are on the road. Ahmad Bradshaw comes off a season high 15 runs for 68 yards and four catches for 17 more against the Ravens and it appears the Colts are willing to incrementally increase his workload at least until he inevitably breaks down again.

The Colts combined for only 69 yards on 14 carries in Houston last season.

WIDE RECEIVER : Reggie Wayne continues to defy his age and the fact he blew his knee out just last year. Even against the Ravens he ended with 77 yards on seven catches and he is a moderate play for yardage every week. T.Y. Hilton warmed up with a season high nine catches for 90 yards last week which gives him a little over 90 yards per game over the last three weeks but he still has yet to score a touchdown. Hakeem Nicks is still a non-factor.

Hilton hauled in seven passes for 121 yards and three touchdowns in Houston.

TIGHT END : Mix and match and guess which one. Dwayne Allen had four catches for 59 yards and a score last week making it four on the season. Coby Fleener scored twice this year but flip a coin when that happens again. Allen is just good enough to merit a fantasy start but he is not above having a bad game like week two when he had no catches.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Luck already had an easy time with the Texans in the past and they are already giving up two touchdowns per game to quarterbacks who are not the #1 fantasy scorer like Luck, The Texans also feature a horrible rushing defense that has allowed monster games to DeMarco Murray and Rashad Jennings recently. That’s not going to happen here but at least it means you might get some yardage from Bradshaw and Richardson with a chance for a touchdown. All but one of the seven passing scores allowed by the Texans went to wide receivers and that bodes very well or Wayne or Hilton scoring if not both. No reason to sit any of your normal Colts since this is a divisional game and points are very important. One downside – Allen faces a defense that has been decent against tight ends.

The Texans are certainly better than last year – the bar was never that high. But they still struggle in road games despite the good play of the defense. This is a critical game for the Texans hopes in the division but the only wins so far have been either at home or against the winless Raiders. What will come into play this week is the inability to mount a comeback. This offense is not built for a shootout.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Fitzpatrick comes off his first game with no touchdowns but at least two of his best efforts were in the previous home games. Fitzpatrick only posts even moderate stats when facing a very weak defense. After five weeks, he has five passing touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s just a caretaker quarterback.

Case Keenum threw for 350 yards and three scores on the visiting Colts last year.

RUNNING BACK : Arian Foster not only was able to play with his tender hamstring, but he ran for a season high 157 yards and two scores on 23 runs in Dallas. He rarely shares more than two or three carries tops and is once again getting such a high workload that another breakdown would be no surprise. But for now, Foster is the best part of the offense and main reason they are even in games this year.

Ben Tate ran for 81 yards on 22 carries versus the Colts last season.

WIDE RECEIVER : The meager passing scores and yardage do end up mostly here. Andre Johnson still has yet to score and seems capped at around 75 yards per game against a weak defense. DeAndre Hopkins scored three times this year and broke 100 yards in New York against the Giants. He was held to six receptions for 63 yards but no scores in Dallas. Hopkins has three of the four touchdowns by a wide receiver and the most yardage even though Johnson gets more targets every week. Hopkins just catches nearly all of his and does more with the ones he gets.

Andre Johnson had a career best game last year when he hauled in nine catches for 229 yards and three scores on the Colts. He was held to only 18 yards in the second meeting.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Colts defense has been great against the run with never more than 79 yards allowed to any single runner but they have yet to face a top back like Foster who will get 25+ carries if they need. And they will want to control the ball as much as possible. Expect a moderate passing game by Fitzpatrick with only trash time in a runaway loss being the only way he would have big yardage. Foster is a must start and should score at least once. But Hopkins and Johnson are more likely in for just a moderate game which is about what they would do anywhere as it is.

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