Predictions Summary Projections by Position Projection Team Boxes

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Prediction: NE 17, BUF 23 (Line: NE by 3)

UPDATE: Fred Jackson is listed as questionable and he was limited in practices this week and then held out on Friday because both his ankle and he was sick with a fever. He is still tentatively expected to play but check his status on Sunday morning if you intend to use him. This is a early game on Sunday so there should be plenty of time to determine his status and react if needed.

The 3-2 Patriots saved face with a 43-17 beat down on the Bengals to show that the previous problems were all gone for one game. The 3-2 Bills come off an upset win in Detroit and continue to surprise. Both teams are hard to peg right now but there is no denying that the Bills defense is getting the job done.

The Patriots swept the Bills last year and won 23-21 in Buffalo.

So which Patriots are to be believed? The one that got ripped up in Kansas City and that barely beat the Raiders or the one that got tired of all the media scrutiny and put together one really good home game against the Bengals? The Pats are already 0-1 in the division with their opening loss to the Dolphins and cannot afford many more. Losing this week does not mean the Patriots are done. But it makes their trek uphill with an apparently sub-standard team.

QUARTERBACK : Tom Brady had been on a four game streak of single digit touchdowns and marginal yardage but came up with 292 yards and two scores in the win over the Bengals. He looked crisp and better but it was just one game and he has to do it again on the road this week. Brady passed for 288 yards and two touchdowns in Buffalo last year. He was held to just 122 yards and one score in the second meeting.

RUNNING BACK : It all worked against the Bengals but Steven Ridley has been used so inconsistently that he’s a major risk to use for a fantasy start. Twice he had under 11 touches in the game. Shane Vereen finally had a nice rushing effort with 90 yards on nine carries but all other games were well under 40 rush yards and his role as a receiver can be between a high of five catches for 41 yards or zero catches.

Vereen ran for 101 yards and added 58 yards on seven catches in Buffalo for 2013.

WIDE RECEIVER : Julian Edelman has been the only noteworthy wideout but even he just turned in two straight games with only four or five catches for under 40 yards. That’s a fantasy killer. Danny Amendola has one catch over the last four games. Kenbrell Thompkins was released. Brandon LaFell had 119 yards and a score versus the Chiefs but has done almost nothing else including just one catch for 20 yards last week. Despite the recent win, nothing has been happening here other than with Edelman and even he has fallen off the map recently.

Amendola caught ten passes for 104 yards in Buffalo last year and Edelman ended with two scores on his seven catches for 79 yards.

TIGHT END : Rob Gronkowski has scored in four of the last five games but was held under 50 yards in each until last week’s six-for-100 game. The night’s biggest surprise was Timothy Wright suddenly scoring once on five catches for 85 yards since he was barely in the game plan for several weeks. Wright was only on the field for 19 snaps though and is only there when the go with certain two-tight end packages.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bills have not only held opposing quarterbacks to never more than two passing scores, they have faced some of the better players along the way. Only River and Cutler posted two scores on them and most settle for 250-ish yards for passing. The Bills have been great against the run and not allowed any running back to score on them. Only Matt Forte (17-82) managed to gain more than 61 rush yards on them and that will depress the shared load of Vereen and Ridley. This looks more like another average Brady game that may have as many as two touchdowns. The Bills have been solid against tight ends as well.

Hard to argue with the change at quarterback after a nice road win. But once again it was the defense that led the way holding down a good offense in their stadium (though missing a healthy Calvin Johnson). The Bills are already 1-0 in the division and really have to win this home game to entertain any thoughts about best out the Pats, Fins and Jets. A win here makes their record standout as legit.

QUARTERBACK : Kyle Orton had a rough start to the day but he ended with 308 yards and one score in Detroit. Manuel had not passed for more than 238 yards in his four games. Orton isn’t there so much to win games as to prevent the offense from losing them.

Manuel passed for 150 yards and two scores on the visiting Pats last year.

RUNNING BACK : C.J. Spiller was benched last week after missing a block that gave up a sack of Kyle Orton. Spiller has yet to turn in a big game and scored only once – as a receiver in the season opener. He’s been locked at around 60 to 70 total yards per week and no scores.

Fred Jackson twisted his ankle in the win over the Lions but said he would be fine for this tilt. He’s been bang around 35 to 50 rush yards per week and adds six on more receptions each week.
He is solid and consistent but never great and has just one score. No Bills back had rushed in a touchdown this year.

Spiller (17-41) and Jackson (13-67) only managed moderate stats when the Patriots visited last season.

WIDE RECEIVER : The introduction of Kyle Orton helped his unit. Orton quickly got on board and directed most passes to Sammy Watkins who received 12 targets and caught seven for 87 yards. Mike Williams is all over the map. He caught just one pass for 88 yards. Twice he had single catch outings with sub-10 yard results. Robert Woods is even less effective and settles for three short catches every week. This unit is hardly prolific but can do just enough to help wins games.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Patriots have been good against the pass though less so lately. No one has thrown for over 250 yards against them though most teams have posted multiple passing scores. The run is where they have been dinged and they are allowing 4.7 yards per carry along with six touchdowns to running backs in five games (four via the pass).No one is going to have a big game against the Pats but Watkins, Jackson and Spiller are all considerations this week.

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